Expect Nothing; Prepare for Anything

From top to bottom, the NFL is the most competitive of the major sports. When the word expectations are brought up, smart analysts take a second before spouting off predictions and forecasts. Asking the expectations of the Bengals this season is like asking what you may have for dinner in three weeks, or if it will be an especially snowy winter; it all depends on a lot of things.

All we can really say without hesitation is that New England will be good and Detroit won’t be. But we’ve learned throughout the salary-cap era that teams can grow up to become contenders, or wilt and die, seemingly overnight. Miami went to the playoffs after winning just one game the season before. Cleveland’s big season of 2007 fooled the world into giving them five prime-time games in ‘08, only to watch the Brownies wind up in the basement. Expectations are a risky business in the NFL these days, but you only live once, so here it goes.

The number one reason the Bengals smelled of dead fish and turned their fans to stone when they watched was because they couldn’t run the ball. The softies up front – Levi, Andrews & Ghiaciuc – were pushed around all year, and Chris Perry showed the nasty side effects of not playing for entire seasons. Benchings and injuries ensued, and the replacements became an immediate upgrade. Benson showed a hard-running style with nifty footwork, Collins showed a capability of protecting the blind side and Kyle Cook showed that anybody could fill in at center and become an improvement.

This year the Bengals have added a few more horses to the stable of running backs. Behind Benson, the team now has the diminutive but nimble DeDe Dorsey, the strong and gritty Brian Leonard, the explosive yet problematic Bernard Scott and the old reliable Kenny Watson. They’ve beefed up the line with draft picks Andre Smith & Johnathan Luigs. There’s also a couple of new rookie fullbacks to choose from, Fui Vakapuna & Chris Pressley, not to mention an intriguing rookie tight end, Chase Coffman – whose immediate contributions will be more apparent in the passing game.

Even if the running game can muster itself into the ranks of mediocrity, Cincinnati will win between seven to nine games, and the faith in that prediction has more to do with the improving defense rather than the assumed passing attack.

There’s a pervasive assumption around the football world that when Carson Palmer is healthy, he will be spectacular and will lead an explosive passing attack, when we have watched his performance decline since that mythical 2005 season. It’s difficult to argue that when pass protection breaks down or when routes are incorrectly ran, Carson panics and he demonstrates the improvisational skills of a slug. The system must run perfectly for him to be great, and the Bengals system has been far from that.

The main sticking point to this complicated equation that involves Carson, his blockers, the running game and his coaching staff, is that the offense has been smitten with the long pass. Once Carson went down last year and Fitzpatrick was reluctantly handed the reigns, it became obvious that a play-calling shift to shorter passes and an emphasis on ball-control was necessary. It took longer than some felt was needed, but Bratkowski made the shift and the Bengals suddenly became more competitive in the season’s second half. Even with the strong-armed Carson poised to return, the offense should carry on with its West-Coast version because it has proven to be successful... for now.

The league’s trends and philosophies of the game are fluid and ever changing. The stagnant nature of the play-calling the Bengals have suffered through for two and a half seasons was why the change was needed in the first place. Once the league catches on to the Bengals West-Coast version of its offense – and it will – then they can return to the vertical game, or better yet, innovate a new strategy. One of Marvin Lewis’ favorite slogans is ‘moving forward’; the philosophy behind that statement would apply nicely to the way this year’s offense is constructed.

The defense is far less of a concern for Cincinnati, which is has been so unlike this team that the words look funny printed on the screen. They’re a young, hungry bunch who are collectively benefitting from the experience and wisdom of defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, linebackers coach Jeff Fitzgerald & Marvin himself. The front office has identified a prototype of a successful defense, and it’s gone about its business collecting the necessary new parts. Rookies Maualuga & Michael Johnson, mixed in with free-agent veterans Tank Johnson & Roy Williams bring some specific skill sets that will assist Zimmer in his scheme, which calls for specialists and experts in various situations. The Bengals have accrued defenders who aren’t great overall players, but rather do one or two things better than the rest. It’s the assembly-line defense that quietly and efficiently produces three & outs; Henry Ford would be proud of this defense.

So if the running game improves, even a little, and the defense matures into the winner that they’re capable of becoming, the last brick in the road to the playoffs rests with the special teams. Franchise-tagging a kicker (Shayne Graham) and drafting the best punter in the country (Kevin Huber), it seems the issue has been, to some extent, addressed. A threatening return-man is still needed, but Caldwell showed some skills last season and Bernard Scott could be a candidate for the job. Special teams has broken down the last few seasons and it cannot decline any further for the team to be successful

After an abysmal 2008, to say that the Bengals will improve this season isn’t going too far out on that limb. To say they won’t win the division is also a bit of a mollycoddled prediction, but ear-marking them as a Wild-Card team, well, that’s just crazy. But with the perfect storm described here, it may all add up to celebrating the New Year with a playoff birth. Alternately, if the Bengals suffer some early setbacks and their stubbornness gets in the way of progress, they could repeat the nightmares of last season. When the dust settles, you can expect a 7-9 season and another year of missing out. We’re not quite there yet.

I’ll eat nothing but tuna in three weeks and it won’t snow once this winter.

Mojokong – working with a badly cracked crystal ball.

AFC North: A Sunday Drive

If the AFC North were a car, it would be an old Buick sedan; nothing flashy, but big enough to survive any accident. It’d be a little rusted and would have torn seat cushions. Pittsburgh always drives and Baltimore usually sits shotgun. The younger twin siblings, the Browns & Bengals, fight it out in the back seat every year. Little has changed.

Pittsburgh’s formula of power mixed with deception has resulted in yet another Super Bowl, and defensive coordinator, Dick LeBeau, lives on in his campaign to rid, first the division and then the world, of serviceable offenses.

New to the diabolical genius’ scheme is first-round defensive tackle, Evander Hood. While not a stay-puff fat guy like Casey Hampton, Hood still weighs in just over 300 lbs. and could find a home as an end in LaBeau’s harebrained 3-4 defensive set. The Steelers also added depth to their secondary drafting a pair of cornerbacks; Keenan Lewis in the third round, and Joe Burnett in the fifth.

Offensively, the Steelers will enjoy the return of Rashard Mendenhall who will team with Willie Parker in Pittsburgh’s perennially effective running game. With the wily Roethlisburger at the helm, two quality running backs, and the same offensive line as last season, the Steelers don’t have many holes to exploit on offense either.

Baltimore has no secrets. They’re big and rugged and will punch you in the face when they see you. It seems that every year pundits line up to say how old the Ravens are on defense or how the offense still lacks a play-making receiver, and every year it seems those pundits are quickly silenced. If it weren’t for the Steelers regularly outsmarting Baltimore, the Ravens would be Super Bowl champs.

They seem to have an assembly line in Baltimore where young players are molded into Pro-Bowlers and once they hit the free-market and become too expensive, general manager Ozzie Newsome reloads with another infusion of talented youth. Bart Scott and Chris McCalister have been replaced by rookie Paul Kruger and free-agent Chris Carr. On offense, Jason Brown and Willie Anderson are replaced with veteran Matt Birk and first-round pick Michael Oher. It all works out for the Ravens because they have a very scripted, very public blueprint of how they want their team to operate and dares the world to stop them if they can. Sadly for the Ravens, the Steelers are still driving the Buick.

As for that squabbling coming from the backseat, Cleveland and Cincinnati continue to scratch and claw at one another while Baltimore laughs and Pittsburgh threatens to stop the car if they don’t behave. While each has had a brief moment in the sun in the past five years, neither has found much footing within the black-and-blue AFC North.

On paper, Cleveland looks disastrous. If the Browns have any brains at all, they will finally euthanize the Derek Anderson experiment and write off any of his past success as a mirage. Brady Quinn, a marketable yet unproven quarterback, remains the most logical candidate to start the ‘09 season. With a battered and tired old workhorse like Jamal Lewis in the backfield, some semblance of a decent passing game seems required if the Browns expect any offensive production at all this year. Too bad for the Brownies, they have a moody superstar who drops passes and a former quarterback who hasn’t impressed anyone as a receiver. The Cleveland front office did address the passing game concerns in the draft by selecting two receivers in the second round. They took center Alex Mack with their first selection, strengthening a talented, but inconsistent offensive line.

Defensively, they also have lots of problems, and the free-agent signings of Eric Barton and Cory Ivy are wet band-aids at best. Don’t expect the Browns to improve their run defense much which finished 28th in 2008. I expect Mangini to take some lumps on the head in the AFC North before he can get the franchise headed in any forward direction.

The Bengals have experienced their best off-season under Marvin Lewis, and the result will be finishing somewhere in the middle of the pack in the AFC North. They’ve taken care of a lot of needs that indicate that they might have turned a corner in regards to staying competitive.

So as the Buick cris-crosses Ohio and Pennsylvania (and a bit of Maryland) this season, when it finally comes to a stop, the seating chart should remain intact. Perhaps in the near future, the Bengals will get another shot at seeing the world from the front seat. Until then, they have to put up with their bratty twin sibling, Cleveland, poking them in the ribs and not staying on their own side.

Mojokong – Don’t make me stop this car!

Resurrecting Brat

For seven years the Bengals’ defense lagged behind and subsequently became each off-season’s point of emphasis. It appears that the team’s preoccupation of stopping the run and allowing big plays, led them to lose track of the offense and as a result, it rusted in the rain. Now, with the defense upright and sturdy, the front office, Marvin Lewis & his staff, all wandered over to the antiquated, dilapidated offense with tools in hand and began hammering on the weatherbeaten machine. What new form the offense takes, with all of its shiny new parts and renewed focus, will determine how competitive the Bengals can be this season.

During this era, only one man, Bob Bratkowski, has been at the wheel of the offense, perhaps asleep at times. He quickly rose to fame behind the big arm of Carson Palmer and the gold teeth of Chad Johnson, but quietly benefitted most from an elite offensive line. His vertical-passing offense caught the league by surprise and climaxed in the 2005 playoff season, earning the Bengals a reputation for demonstrating an explosive passing attack. Satisfied with his acclaimed game plan, Bratkowski went on to call the same plays for the next three seasons. The results were never as effective, and it became obvious that his recipe was no longer a secret when defenses feasted on the sputtering Bengals during last season’s first four games; a stretch when Palmer was still playing.

This time, Brat says he’s finally changing the play-book, and for good reason. There will be 40 new players arriving in Georgetown, Kentucky this season, and most of those are on offense. Gone are three ineffective offensive linemen, a top receiver, a squirrely backup quarterback, a fumbling runner and one overweight fullback. The replacements to those positions suggest that the Bengals have committed to the run – a slogan the team has historically discussed but never enacted.

First-rounder Andre Smith is the proverbial mauler; a run-blocker who regularly smashes opponents into the ground. Assuming Smith becomes the right tackle – a move that would keep Anthony Collins on the left and seems to make the most sense – he would have the immense Bobby Williams mauling beside him. Such a behemoth right side should immediately provide Brat with a preferred spot to run behind. As for center, Luigs, though disconcertingly labeled as finesse, is an improvement over Ghaicuic because, frankly, you couldn’t possibly do much worse than that. Along those lines, seventh-round draft pick, Fui Vakapuna, can only improve a fullback position that hasn’t recovered from Jeremi Johnson’s eating binges.

All of this is terrific news for Cedric Benson. The former first-rounder and Bears’ castaway, has harbored together all of the intense emotion that drives him and formed it into an angry running style; one that produced good numbers in a comical Bengals offense last season. When it comes time to pulverize the opponent into submission this year, that big and powerful right side, coupled with Benson’s large, square head can hopefully hold their own against the villainous defenses of the AFC North.

The power-running game is a second-half weapon and is instrumental to closing out games. Bratkowski once had something similar in his heyday with Rudi Johnson & Gang, but he quickly overused it and the play-calling became predictable. Fortunately for Brat, he also has a left side of the line which is quick and athletic, and to go with it: the coveted change-of-pace back in the dazzling form of the tiny DeDe Dorsey. Yes, DeDe is an exciting jitterbug with the ball and can be potent on screenplays and halfback tosses, but an unfortunate side-effect to all of that has been his propensity to fumble and become injured. The new addition of Bernard Scott, taken in the sixth round, could add a little competition for DeDe as the established third-down back.

Scott is apparently explosive both on the field and off it; after experiencing multiple run-ins with the law, most teams shied away from the reportedly talented back. Another new running back that adds both depth and grit to the team, is Brian Leonard, acquired in a trade from the Rams for defensive lineman, Orien Harris. Thanks to his ability to block and run, Leonard can play fullback too, and could be effective in pass-protection by picking up outside blitzes.

Hopefully, the Bengals passing attack has been humbled. No longer should these players assume that they can simply throw the ball high into the air, and points will rain down with the completed passes. Things don’t look quite as rosy these days: they’ve lost their leader, pass-protection remains a mystery and the league has solved Brat’s play-calling formula.

Alas, all is not lost. The brand-named Housh has been replaced with the next-best-thing, Laverneus Coles. Chris Henry is said to have finally exorcized the crazy and is primed to be the deep-threat, third-option receiver we knew from the days of yore. We have a pair of interesting second-year receivers; Andre Caldwell showed us good hands and a dash of punt-return ability, Jerome Simpson showed us nothing. And then there’s still that traveling salesman, that laughing hyena, that clown, Chad Ocho Cinco. That makes five receivers who all have a chance to call dibs on the top bunk within Brat’s new and improved play-book (and third-round tight end, Chase Coffman, promises to catch some passes too).

It could be a rebirth this season for Bob Bratkowski. His slate is clean, his new pieces are in place. The blueprints of his new machine all check out and seem to make a lot of sense. This could once again take him to the top. But will it all work? Will theory become reality? The responsibility rests with the man behind the wheel.

Mojokong – If a perfect machine can only run in a perfect environment, is it a piece worth keeping?

Some Semblance of Logic

The best off-season of the Marvin Lewis Era continued when the team signed hard-hitting safety, Roy Williams, to a one-year deal. This is yet another smart move and one of little risk considering that within his eight years as a pro, Roy has clearly shown the world what he can and can’t do.

Roy can tackle; he’s more of a mini-linebacker than he is a safety. This is the man who forced the league to outlaw horse-collar tackles, the man who has tackled over 500 times in the NFL. A coordinator could use a player like Roy in a very specialized manner. He should come in for run support and safety blitzes, and come out on passing downs. Use him in nickel formations in the linebacker slot, cut him loose on punt blocks, be creative with the guy.

He went to four Pro-Bowls when coached by Bengals defensive coordinator, Mike Zimmer, in Dallas, who said this about Roy: "I think I know how to use him a little bit."

While not turning too many heads in the process, Zimmer has significantly upgraded this defense since the opener of last season. Those upgrades include: Tank Johnson for John Thornton, Chris Crocker for Marvin White, Roy Williams for Dexter Jackson, Rey Maualuga for Dhani Jones, and possibly coming soon, Roderick Hood for David Jones. Bengals.com reported that Hood – cornerback with Arizona last year – was scheduled to visit Paul Brown Stadium today . He would add even more depth to a suddenly veteran secondary.

It seems Zimmer seeks out players who are particularly talented in one facet of the game. Tank Johnson is primarily a pass-rusher, Rey & Roy are run-stuffers who enjoy hitting people, rookie defensive end, Michael Johnson, is very tall and athletically freakish. Zimmer must play the part of Maestro, accentuating every specialized talent these newcomers posses and seamlessly blend them in with the existing sound of his emerging defense.

Marvin Lewis’ vision is finally beginning to take form. It was derailed then obscured, but now he has the living roots in his grasp and he can grow something, really grow something this time. We’ve all learned many lessons along his way, but the hardest learned for Marvin has been what not to do when next time rolls around. This, my friends, is the beginning of that next time.

To the end and beyond,

Mojokong – Levi Jones, your time with us tasted of bitter fruit. You join the ranks of the once loved but too thoroughly defeated. So it goes.