Week 17 Preview: The Last Dragon

Gravity and balance.  That combination worked against poor Early Doucette on Christmas Eve as he twirled and stumbled his way to a fourth-down incompletion, killing a gift-wrapped comeback against the Bengals.  The same cosmic forces that let the Bengals down against the Texans swung back in their favor this time and reinforced the lesson that anything can happen in this crazy mixed up football league. 

As it is, Cincinnati is back in the sixth slot and only needs to beat one good team to get to the playoffs, and that's how it should be.  You gotta slay at least one dragon along the way to prove you're worthy.  Taking out all the cream puffs is fine, but there aren't many of those lurking where the Bengals are headed.

For Marvin Lewis, this is one of those career-definers.  A win-and-your-in finale is a playoff game, especially against a team whose already clinched but still has something to play for.  Plus Marvin knows this team perhaps better than any other opponent.  He has seen it all against the Baltimore Ravens.  If he enjoys his job, then this week should be fun for him. 

Still, there are concerns in the match-up against the Ravens. 

When San Diego beat Baltimore, they dropped their secondary deep into zone coverage, allowed Ray Rice to catch the ball on dump offs and ran up to tackle him.  They got a nice pass rush from Antwan Barnes that night and overall the scheme worked.  Then Cleveland played a bit more man coverage and found out their linebackers couldn't cover that well.  That scheme didn't work and the Browns lost.

The Bengals secondary is flimsy and must hold up against a quality offense.  The backup-quarterback trio Cincinnati has faced the last three weeks had a little too much comfort and rhythm for my liking.  I thought against Arizona, the secondary got tired thanks to two infuriating fumbles in the fourth quarter.  The old bones of Chris Crocker and Nate Clements must have inwardly groaned each time they watched the ball pop out of Cedric Benson's arms.  Adam Jones is the best remaining corner, but he's not enough, plus the miscommunication with the safeties on zone coverage just can't happen.  Baltimore has a handful of weapons they like to use to gain medium yardage and the Bengals must win on third down if they want to control the game. 

Of course, no pass defense analysis would be complete without the mention of getting pressure on the quarterback.  A healthy and effective Carlos Dunlap boosts this defense into a force rather than just a  serviceable unit.  His presence elevates Michael Johnson's game, and the two become a long-armed sack monster.  These guys mixed in with big Geno Atkins and the rest of the rotation give the Bengals teeth again on defense.  The Ravens passing attack starts out with long drop backs by Joe Flacco.  If he is under center and is passing, he often play-actions to Ray Rice on the stretch hand-off, rolls back into the pocket and looks way down field to either a streaking Torrey Smith or a deep crossing Ed Dickson.      Flacco can run well in a straight line, but he's not likely to juke his way out of danger.  Getting sacks on such deep drops from Flacco can be game-changers themselves.  We have also seen Flacco get rattled by effective pressure—Week 2, 2010 comes to mind—and if he gets knocked down enough, he and the rest of his team might think about packing it in for the playoffs.

The impressive part of the Ravens offense though, is its ability to adapt to different styles of the game.  They have Rice, and then there is Ricky Williams, but when Baltimore has to really go into bruiser mode, it's their fullback who blacks the eyes of his opponents.  Vonta Leach is a fearless man who explodes into potential tacklers.  He obliterates his blocking assignment almost every time, no matter their size.  Last week, you could see the Browns dragging themselves off the ground, wondering what mini-bus just ran them over.    When the Ravens run off-tackle, Manny Lawson and Thomas Howard will have to get very low on Leach to win that battle.  If neither can, it will up to Rey Maualuga and the safeties to rally and make the tackle.  Follow No. 44 when he's in there. 

On offense, the Bengals have to let it loose.  Rather than play not to lose, this is the game to empty the playbook and really keep a dangerous defense in check.  I think teams often play it safe against Baltimore because of their great players, and the Birds get used to the conservative play calling, but this time, Jay Gruden should come out blazing and attack the jugular.

AJ Green is great against anyone, and this week he will likely see a lot of Ladarius Webb.  Green is still the favorite in this match up, but Webb is a play maker that should not be toyed with.  On the other side, though, rookie Jimmy Smith will line up against Jerome Simpson.  The Chargers went after Smith with the lanky Malcolm Floyd and had success throwing in that direction.  Simpson has a similar build and, as demonstrated last week, supreme leaping ability.  Jerome had a pretty monster game in Baltimore earlier this season and could be the x-factor this week. 

If the Bengals are fortunate enough to have a second-half lead, it's important they keep the foot on the gas pedal.  In the last three weeks, one had a sense that the team relaxed and allowed their mentality to become conservative and cautious.  The good teams continue to go at their opponent with the same intensity and tenacity throughout the whole game.  Soft zone coverage with no discernible pass rush is not how champions play.  Back-to-back standard runs of no originality is not the way to keep the lead.  I recognize the importance of field position and time management.  I know that a punt in the fourth quarter with the lead can be a productive play, but that doesn't mean a team should shut down and hope that time runs out. 

Last time I wrote that I didn't think the Bengals would make the postseason based on injury and youth, but the cards—and the Cardinals—stacked up just right to make this thing real and possible.   So now, if the Bengals can get a pass rush, remain aggressive on offense, and ride the wave of the moment, they will prove me wrong.  It can happen.  It should happen.  It will happen. 

Bengals 28, Ravens 17


Mojokong—tackling matters.

Why Dalton is Better Than Palmer

In a word, pocket presence (I guess that's two words). 

 

It seems so long ago when we used to call Palmer elite that I barely remember that player. I recall him moving around better in the pocket and even showing some straight-line speed once he decided to run with it, but all of that seemed to die after Kimo Von Oelhoffen obliterated his knee and destroyed his confidence. Since that fateful moment, Carson has been sacked 130 times and suffered through many injuries and pains. From '06-10, he never gained back the instinctual third eye needed to avoid sacks, turnovers, injury and ultimately losses. Any comfort in the pocket was, and still is, a very tenuous sense of safety for him. When things get hairy, most times his eyes come off the receivers and he goes down for a loss on the play; escape ability is not on his scouting report. 

 

That isn't to say the man is completely devoid of such skills. As hard-edged as we Bengal fans might be toward old No. 9, he is still an adequate NFL quarterback. I think Raider Nation got a little tipsy from the kool-aid when the native son first returned to California—they were positively bathing in the stuff—but his arrival did instill a heavy dose of credibility to Oakland's season once Jason Campbell went down.

Since his donning of a silver helmet, though, Carson has been fair at best. Sure, he's in a new system with new receivers a new offensive line and so on, but watching him play, he's the same quarterback as last year. I think fans on both sides of the trade wondered aloud if the change of scenery would kick-start the magic for him again; if Palmer really was the shackled phoenix waiting for another chance to burn, or just another QB in the later portion of an okay career. He still makes some good throws and occasionally surprises me with his play-making ability, but he also still frequently has his what-were-you-thinking moments and has not yet led his new team to a comfortable position within their division.

On the other hand, the force is strong with Andy Dalton. When the pocket breaks down behind him he can feel it. It isn't something that can be taught—you either have it or you don't—and Red's got it. His calmness has guided an offense through seas that should have been stormier for a rookie Bengal quarterback. His play has been nowhere near perfect—he must improve on his accuracy—but his intangibles are what excites the onlookers. 

 

What I like so much is his balance between playing wily yet careful football. He plays with a backyard style, allowing his instincts to guide him into the right position to make a play, but then if he isn't satisfied with the coverage he sees as he moves around, he lofts the ball out of bounds and lives another day. His game-management skills are more consistent and trustworthy than are Palmer's and he knows his limitations on his throws. 

 

As for his throws, I feel that while Palmer can throw farther, Dalton can throw faster. Dalton's delivery is shorter and he can really zing it on close-range throws. His deep balls are not yet amazing—Jeff Blake remains the best in that category in Bengal lore—but he gets a lot of help by his tall and supremely talented outside receivers (mostly AJ Green) when he just hucks it up there for them. 

 

I also like his leadership skills more. While Carson always said the right things, from the outside, he never seemed to embrace the one-of-the-guys mentality. There was Mike Brown, Marvin Lewis, Carson Palmer and everyone else. The Bengals may have thrust this persona on the guy and demanded he conduct himself as more than just another player, but Dalton goes about his business in a humble and unassuming way. He shrugs off the negative and laughs easily. He's comfortable around large groups of fans; he's big when he needs to be and small when he needs to be, and that's not easy for everyone. The city loves him, the media loves him, and his future is solid gold as of now.

It wouldn't be fair to omit the fact that Dalton is playing under a much more sensible playcaller than what Carson was subjected to for his entire Bengal tenure. Perhaps Jay Gruden could have revived No. 9's career and put up the same kind of wins, but Hue Jackson had a sterling reputation as a playcaller before Palmer arrived. Once Carson was a Raider, Hue said he would install some Bengal stuff in the playbook to ease the transition, but I think that has been part of the problem for CP3. The old Bratkowski way never came to any success, yet Oakland looks like Bengal West with the likes of Palmer, Jackson, Chuck Bresnahan and even T.J. Houshmanzedah. Once Ochocinco hits the market again would anyone be surprised to see him as a Raider? I think Rudi Johnson is available too if they're interested.

When Palmer “retired” and Dalton was drafted, we figured it would take some time to get back to watching a competitive quarterback in Stripes, but the kid dazzled from the get-go. By Week 14, Dalton underwent a winning streak, a losing streak, some squeak-out wins and heartbreak losses. He has displayed a ton of heart, poise and composure, a stronger arm than most had thought, solid mobility, and most importantly, innate pocket presence. 

 

Since Palmer has begun to play football again, he has displayed everything he was last year: a turnover machine who does not excel at improvising and consequently has trouble winning games. 

 

I'll take the ginger, please.

Mojokong—and I still can't believe what they traded for him.

Third-Quarter Report: Grounded

No one said it'd be easy. The AFC North is unbearable to most. The defenses will scare you. Baltimore is a meat grinder. Pittsburgh is a street fight with chains. To hang in those kind of circles, Cincinnati had to be ruthless and bloodthirsty themselves, but each time against the big dogs, they flinched first and took their respective wallops. Had it not been for the heroics of AJ Green when it mattered most against Cleveland, many would be cashing in their Bengal chips right about now. Meddle was tested, lessons were learned. The measuring stick was brutal within the four-game divisional stretch and firmly established the respective roles of the pack. For now, the Bengals are still the “somedays”.

Because the Bengals accomplished two honorable comebacks against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, we fans all agreed with one another that it proved our team was only a play or two away from actually beating the bastards, but then the Steelers squashed them like bug in the rematch and forced that tired but justified yelling of uncle once more. Oh, the frustration.

And they aren't a bad team. They really are close to shoving divisional fixtures out of the way. Even during a rough patch, the characters on this team have remained calm. The program still appears sound despite a rash of losing. I'm still impressed.

The offense struggled, but not mightily, during the last four games. Their scheme is present—you can see how the pieces are supposed to work—but the group as a whole are not locked into place. Jay Gruden, Andy Dalton, the line and the receivers are still working on attaining perfect harmony—and it may never happen—but at least good philosophy is in place. That kind of conceptual foundation allows for logical adjustments within play-calling and style of offense. The Bengals have to view this past quarter as a minor failure on the type of tweaks they made, but the smaller successes of incorporating Baby Hawk and increasing Jermaine Gresham's presence could set up a much better December.

Hawk looks like a terrific slot receiver. He's quick, apparently runs good routes, and has been reliable as hell. Dalton likes him and I like him, especially on third down. Gresham is shaping up to be the bruiser we envisioned on draft day. He boxes out on passes and goes up strong to get catches. A grown-ass man. Then there is the skyrocket, AJ Green. This man is truly outta sight with the things he can do, but his best ability is to set his feet, leap above everyone else, comfortably come down with the ball and casually turn up field for YAC. He has already become one of the biggest deep-threats in the league and has also shown the ability to catch the slant in traffic. The superlatives are endless with this one and his potential is as vast as space itself, but to be fair, it was his false start in Pittsburgh that erased a touchdown and doomed the Stripes from there on out in that game. Finally, something he can improve on.

Jerome Simpson, though, is still not focused enough to be great or even all that reliable. His wild inconsistencies continue to frustrate me and he is a better blocker than anything else. He had a nice game in Baltimore when Green was out, but he is the fourth option at best on this team.

Overall the offense was competitive enough to win three outta four games this past stretch. And while special teams shit the bed in that stinker in Pitt, it has been the defense that has been the biggest letdown.

I don't want to be too rough on these guys. They are hard workers who do the best they can. I just don't think their best is good enough sometimes. Zim had these guys mobbing to the ball on every carry. Players were wrapping up and gang tackles were a regular occurrence. Early on, life was good, but without Carlos Dunlap, they've lacked the teeth necessary to enter into the tough-guy defense conversation. His absence is sharp and losing starting corners has only compounded the issue. Aside from the motor-head Geno Atkins, the vaunted front-four rotation of the Bengals looks tame and average again and it must improve in the last quarter of the season for the Bengals to have meaningful success in January.

I sense the team is getting tired and that's no good if I'm right. Tackling in the cold is a decision not an instinct. There are parts of a linebacker's brain that questions the motive of tackling in the cold. Your hands hurt, your knees don't want to move but you have to bring down this running back that just won't stop. With the new collective bargaining agreement, teams can't practice with pads this late in the season, so you can't really work on tackling throughout the week. Whether this preserves players or softens them up is a valid debate as bad tackling has cropped up recently in many cities. If fatigue does play a part in this discussion of tackling, then three home games in the last quarter can only help. Either way, tackling is basic and necessary and Cincinnati doesn't have the offensive prowess to afford arm flails and body bumps.

As a whole, it was a bad stretch but not a back-breaker. The odds of a divisional sweep weren't good this year and a couple of losses were expected, but the execution faltered from games 9-12. I won't go as far to say that the Bengals beat themselves, but I will say they didn't help their own cause in big games. If this team can put together a surge of smart, clean play like they demonstrated earlier this season, they will be fine. They have a few cupcakes left on the schedule and winding up in the postseason is still very real as they remain in the drivers seat of a wild-card birth, but improvements must be made in all three phases, as well as adjusting to injuries better, in order to roll into the playoff party this year.

There are two sides to the mini-wheat on this one for me. The fan in me thinks the Who-Deys will rally strong, buck up and be tough, and roll over these clowns to finish out the year, but the analyst in me sees youth, fatigue and injury eating away at a playoff season. The Bengals making it defies conventional thinking and not because of the franchise: a rookie quarterback on a team missing key defensive stars in an impossible division while battling four other wild-card teams with the same record typically translates to a letdown. So there you have it. Boldly spelled out in writing.

I don't think the Bengals will make the playoffs, but will hope like hell that they do.

Mojokong—blacked out.