Joe Flacco: Respect Envy

Joe Flacco wants a new contract.  He deserves one.  He has won in the playoffs in all four years of his career, he's been to the AFC Championship game twice, he's thrown over 3,600 yards and 20 touchdowns every season he's played and he's never been hurt.  Yet there are two reasons why he is valued lower than he should be.

Somehow, being drafted by a top organization with a uniquely talented running back and a fabled defense has hurt Flacco's legacy.  All of his personal triumphs have always been redirected toward the glory of the team's other strengths.  For a fleeting moment, Flacco had done it.  In the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship in Foxborough, Joe Flacco led his team from behind and completed a perfectly thrown touchdown pass into the hands of Lee Evans with roughly 30 seconds to go to the Super Bowl.  In the very next nanosecond, Sterling Moore knocked the ball from Evans' hands, and kept Flacco offstage again.

Had Evans hung on, Flacco could have changed public opinion of him and would join the ranks of those who at least made it to the game. His play was good enough to win, he proved the doubters wrong even though the team lost. 

Still, I don't think the world is ready to give the nod to Flacco and would prefer to keep him mired in his own tragedy.  We like him balanced precariously on the cusp of greatness without ever pouring him over the rim.  For a thousand different reasons, not everybody wins and Joe Flacco is a walking example of such an Aesop moral. 

Perhaps even the coldest among us might soften up to Poor Joe and maybe even root for him once in a while if the guy had a different attitude.  As if the mockery of a mustache and the heavily-sedated facial expressions weren't enough, Joe decided to let us know—on a few occasions—that we all need to start appreciating him more.  Such sentiments are hardly original, but when Flacco vents like that, he comes off as a moody little goth teen and everybody else screws up their faces listening to him.  Joe seems adversarial, almost like a grossly uninformed conspiracy theorist who is offended at your disinterest in the evils of secret societies.  No one wants to hear him complain of his perceived lack of value.  Sympathy of any kind  is hard to wrestle from the public, most of all when it deals with getting a few less million dollars.  All the people want to hear is that he will try harder next year and that the business end will work itself out.  Maybe that's how top athletes get screwed compared to their peers, I don't know, but as explained above, I don't really give a damn.

The funny part is, there is no way the Ravens aren't going to resign him.  He has another year on his rookie contract, then he is going to hit the jackpot—compared to the rest-of-the-world standards.  It probably won't be an elite contract, but he isn't an elite quarterback.  If he wants the prime-rib of the Ravens' cash cow, he will either have to make sure that his touchdown pass doesn't get dropped next year, or pressure Ozzie Newsome privately in his office.  Either way, the more he complains to all of us about not being liked enough, the less we like him at all. 


Mojokong—to Cali the Cat!

  

AFC Championship Preview: The Tell

Well, not leather, I guess.

The fullback is a telling position.  Seeing one in the backfield means power football is on its way.  Old-timers like it when the fullback gets the ball—it's the way football used to be—like a Charlie Brown scene of dust and limbs.  The fullback was once a  premiere skill position in Paul Brown's offense.  Marion Motley wrecked fools in leather helmets all day from the fullback spot, and carried the rock wearing number 76—it's hard to get more classic than that.  Hallowed bruisers like Csonka, Riggins and our own Pete Johnson kept the position relevant by gaining yards over the decades, but the threat of the fullback trailed off in a slow and steady decline toward what it is today, a mini snowplow who is lucky to be activated. 

Most NFL teams still employ a fullback; there was a brief scare recently, but the position was never actually tagged on the critically endangered list. A couple still occasionally get the ball—Kuhn comes to mind—but most of the guys that wear a fullback number and still catch the ball are that weird H-back hybrid breed of player.  Marcell Reese, for instance, is the best offensive player for the Oakland Raiders when McFadden is hurt—he is wildly dynamic with such a diverse skill set—but he's not a true fullback.  

There is one though who blasts out of his stance like an enraged hippopotamus.  Eager to pulverize the wrong colored jersey,Vonta Leach is old-school indeed with his grime and his grit.  He bounces tacklers out of running lanes like he's worked the door at rowdy punk-rock shows.  He's Iron Mike tough, ready to slug on linebackers in an instant.  Fortunately for him, not only is he allowed to do that, he gets paid for it. 

The Ravens are looking for the home run every time they hand the ball off.  With Leach escorting, Ray Rice charges through the hole, stumpy legs ablaze.  Rice holds it with both hands until Leach leads him to daylight and then it's a contest to see if the defensive backfield is in good enough shape to even enter the television screen on long runs.  While Baltimore insists on the deep-drop, vertical-passing game, I think they look to the run game to get them the explosive plays.  Last week, the Texans used their speed and impressive intensity for four quarters to keep the Ravens offense reasonably in check.

This week, the Ravens have something far more lackluster in the Patriots defense, a group to which it has almost become obligatory to lambast while praising their offensive counterpart.  Ranked second-to-last in overall defense this 2011 season, the Pats seemingly cannot stop much.  Ray Rice and his brave blocking sidekick should have no problem racking up the big runs and getting some points up in the process.

Mr. Joe Flacco, however, must not only be sure to keep the ball away from a sneaky, ball-hawking secondary, he must make the good throws in the clutch.  So far, he has always looked decent, never great.  He seems easily rattled (as Ed Reed himself pointed out earlier this week), and I've never been sold on the guy's leadership skills or attitude.  I feel many give him too hard a time and lack too much faith in him during the regular season, but when the stakes get as high as this, I don't think he's got the moxie. 

Another telling sign of the fullback is its absence from a formation.  As powerful as it is in the backfield, it is that much more open and free without one.  That extra eligible receiver can stretch the field in so many ways based on where you line him up.  Some of the more pass-happy teams have gone long stretches without activating a fullback, and other teams have trusted their tight-ends more than actual fullbacks to perform the task. 

The Patriots are one of these teams.  If they have a fullback, I can't name him.  They instead spread out formations with their versatile tailbacks and tight-ends and throw short, quick passes.  Baltimore wants to get-rich-quick on breakout runs, but New England wants to move slowly down the field through the air.  If there is a short-yardage situation, the Pats expertly run the hurry-up quarterback sneak and get the first down seemingly 90 percent of the time.  They set up their runs to Danny Woodhead and Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis by getting the defense to stretch out too far to the flats after a bevy of short accurate throws by Tom Brady. 

The way New England achieves their big plays is either a missed tackle on a short throw—usually to Gronk—or a defensive breakdown.  If Brady catches anyone sleeping at any point in the game, he will throw a touchdown over their head and scream about it intensely along the sidelines.  The guy is not here to play; he's here to work. 

If New England gets a good amount of YAC, the blowout will appear even more exaggerated.  Otherwise, Brady will milk the clock, win the battle of field position, score at least a field goal on every drive and shove his way into another Super Bowl. 

Sure the Ravens defense is good—we know the names—but it's going to take the collected effort of their lives to hold up in this one and I feel this group has run its course and met its match. 



Patriots 31, Ravens 20



Mojokong - please recycle.

NFC Championship Preview: Power of Balance

I see the 49ers defense as a group of guys who kind of loosely hang around with bounty-hunter guilds in the off-season. They seem a little too tough to mingle with normal society, so they might go on a run with Dog and his wife or just kick back and watch some NBA with Boba Fett. To remain as fierce as they have all season long, they probably can't allow themselves but three calendar days of soft living. Imagine a biker gang in pads and you're somewhere near that San Francisco D. A fearsome, lethal bunch.

They have good scheme, but it's their fits that make them the best. On every level, they have the prototypical 3-4 personnel that as a group emphasize walloping everything in their way. The front three are lead by the crazed beer-drinking coon dog, Justin Smith. This guy plays with a speed-boat engine and just pushes linemen backward, nothing fancy in his game. As a rookie, Smith was effective in Dick LeBeau's scheme, but Marvin Lewis brought the 4-3 with him, and Big Justin never played as well. Now he is back where he belongs playing with the size and attitude of a young grizzly bear.

The 49er pass-rush is a game-changer though because of the other Smith, rookie Aldon Smith. The outside speed-rusher is long, has good individual moves and can track down quarterbacks out of the pocket—like he did to Drew Brees last week. Mix Ahmad Brooks into the picture and you have yourself a pair of large, fast pass-rushers blazing around the edges.

If the opposing quarterback, in this week's case Eli Manning, does get the ball off when dropping back to pass he and his receiving corps are face perhaps an even greater threat. Carlos Rogers has transformed into the first-round butterfly that Washington and many others envisioned all those years ago. His marked success in his first year with San Francisco shows yet again how important fitting into the right scheme is for defensive backs. Perhaps more than any other position, veteran cornerbacks prove to be late-bloomers with a new team. Rogers has excellent man coverage skills which is crucial to a blitz-heavy scheme and he tackles well in run support. He is insulated with two jaw-breaking hit-men safeties, Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson, who roam well with instinct and ill-intentions. Crossing slot receivers beware: dem boys can hit!

And finally, it wouldn't be fare to omit the interior line-backing tandem of Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowmen. Willis is lauded with thick gobs of praise for excellent reason. For my money, he's the best defensive player on the planet and he is the absolute lynchpin to the best defense in the league. Yet Bowmen is following in those exact footsteps and has learned from the best how to emulate the best. These men are like attack dogs against the run. Running backs might as well be made of bacon.

The Ravens still have their cast of pirates and the Steelers are always gonzo enough to hurt anybody at any time, and the Texans look like hell-on-wheels for years to come, but it's the Niners that get their man in the end.

Yet after all of that, I think San Francisco will lose to the New York Giants in Sunday's NFC Championship Game. The Giants are a team hanging ten on a tidal wave of momentum. Every phase is humming right along and Eli knows exactly what he's doing. The G-Men may sputter every now and then against the biker gang previously described, but like the Saints, New York will still finds its way into the end-zone eventually. The Giant receiving trio of Mario Manningham, Victor Cruz, and the ever-dangerous Hakim Nicks, not to mention the wild-card Jake Ballard at tight end, are a focused group that have made the explosive plays for the past five or so weeks. If NYG does get comfortable throwing, they can then open their stables and let their horses run roughshod. Even though they are often absent from the best-offense conversation, they are a complete and balanced unit with a knowledgeable and confident leader under center.

Since the Giants should put up at least 20 points, San Francisco will then have to counter with their own big plays, which is where they could struggle. They certainly have playmakers, but how many times will the secondary fall over itself and allow a Vernon Davis touchdown like what happened last week? It makes the most sense to force the inconsistent 49ers receivers to win and take away Davis by crowding him in underneath zone coverage. New York can afford zone coverage because the Giant pass-rush is so reliable. Jason Pierre-Paul is a long-limbed freakazoid who might get 25 sacks in a season someday. There are sometimes question marks about how interested he is in football, but his stock is still soaring nonetheless. He and his mates have the strip-sack down to a science, and Alex Smith will need help from his Pro-Bowl studded line.

The 49ers line puzzles me a bit. I know they are absolute 18-wheelers when run blocking but in the games I've seen, they give up a lot of pressure and sacks to blitz-heavy teams. The Ravens got them on Thanksgiving for nine sacks. The Saints had four, three on safety blitzes last week. Alex Smith has shed the shitty-quarterback label for now, but there are very few who like his odds of winning if he's repeatedly crashed to the ground on every passing attempt. We know SF will run the ball well, but to keep up on the scoreboard, Alex Smith will need time to throw down field, and that is where they lose.

Giants 24, 49ers 13

Mojokong-By Roger Craig's Ghost!

Marvin Lewis: Stick With The Program

After peeling back so many layers, the football onion begins to take a completely different form than its original shape.  This season reinforced the idea to me that games are only tests to gauge how well practice is going and how Sunday is arguably the least important day of the week.  Football is not a game, it's an experiment.  The goal is for 70 or more individuals to share ideas and talents throughout the course of a week by the end of which they are to achieve perfection in both execution and design within the rules.  Every team fails every time, but the idea is to get as close as possible. In a sense, by Sunday the game is already won or lost based on the success of the preparation involved.  If the players are ready and the game-plan is solid, everything should take care of itself.  Just like we practiced.

But what about human error and human triumph?  People aren't robots, they will never do the same thing every time the same way, and also the ball takes funny bounces.  Preparation can only go so far.

It's true.  Of course, it's true.  Nonetheless, the more prepared a team, the easier it will be to overcome the shit-happens rule.   This is why it is imperative to have a program in place and it operate at a high efficiency. 

I do not believe all programs are created equal but I also don't agree that there is only one way to do it right.  Today's head coach is responsible for the program to be in place much more than he is to do any actual coaching.  That isn't to say there isn't some of that, but as the game gets bigger, so does the program, and a head coach actually becomes more of a manager than a coach.  He has to see the big picture, know the whole experiment to its smallest detail, do the best with the materials given him and try to achieve perfection. 

Marvin Lewis has a program, and regardless of the jokes the media and fans incorporate into their Bengal remarks, professionals in the industry admire it.  He dragged the Cincinnati Bengals out of the heart of darkness and into relevancy using it, and he seems more confident in it now than ever before.  He sees it working. 

When studying the program for so many years, one starts to notice consistent characteristics:  Marvin loves the kicking game.  He values its impact on games more than other coaches and many of his game-time decisions are based around the best possible kicking situation at hand.  He doesn't trust younger players all that much, although he was forced to give a few kids a shot lately with the offensive youth movement that took place before the 2011 season.  And he wants us to know as little as possible about anything pertaining to his program.  The minute you tell him you understand it, he will laugh and say that you know nothing. 

To my original point, however, Marvin's program allows for quality practices which lead to more wins and ultimately allows he and his staff to come closer to achieving football perfection.  One interesting tidbit ML shared with us after the playoff loss was that offensive coordinator Jay Gruden had to adjust to the way Marvin runs his practice.  Marvin has a very specific way that practice is run, when Gruden has mastered the way Marvin wants his practices run, the program will run more smoothly and the equation works its way back to more wins again.  Every little detail that improves the efficiency of the program translates to a better showing in tests (Sundays), and in theory, when every detail is operating at its fullest potential, the Bengals will experience football euphoria and will become a collective beam of light right after winning the Super Bowl to cap an undefeated season.  It will be blissful and we will be proud to say we were there.  Only, it isn't likely to happen.

No program works all the time.  Sometimes, a program will be as sound as it gets, but the player talent is too lacking.  Sometimes both are in place and an owner or a GM (or both) gets in the way and messes around too much.  Sometimes an equipment manager is blowing it, sometimes the bathrooms aren't clean enough, sometimes the plane is late.  There is a lot to these programs and at the end of the day, if it didn't hold up to the 16-game test, it's the head coach that is blamed for its problems and out he and his program go. 

There are certainly more successful coaches out there than Marvin Lewis.  There are brighter, more innovative football minds, there are more fiery men who would love a shot at the NFL, but who runs a better program than him?  Who would be better?  His players—outside of one moody running back—seem to believe in his way of doing things.  They play hard and don't grumble.  They were shown the way of the professional and that's how they live. 

I believe that as long as Marvin Lewis remains with the Bengals, the longer they will remain competitive.  Now that they appear to have stockpiled potentially elite talent once more, this young group should help the program to operate even more efficiently in the years to come as they grow more familiar with it.

So as we tune in to the weekly tests next season, remember that it's more than two football teams meeting on a painted field, it's a week's worth of rigorous preparation and hard-nosed discipline by two large organizations colliding violently and repeatedly for three hours.  It's the next chance to prove the program's working.  It won't always be perfect, but it will always try to be.


Mojokong—the abstract.

Fourth-Quarter Report: From Urgency to Panic

It seemed like all of Texas had packed into Reliant Stadium in Houston last week to watch the state's other football team take care of business against the Cincinnati Bengals.  The stage became too heavy, too intense.  It lead to panic and and eventually submission for the Stripes.  The Texans were not afraid, they relished in their spotlight.  They made terrific plays and dazzled with their talents, while the Bengals missed numerous opportunities. 

The same was true the week before against the Ravens.  When the going got tough, the tough ran the ball.  For two straight weeks, the Bengals were mortally wounded by explosive running backs.  The fact is, the whole defense couldn't continue it's ferocity in the season's second half and especially in their last two games when it mattered the most.  They were worn and torn in the end and it slowed them down into a vanilla group of tacklers.  Mix that in with an exposed and untalented secondary, and just a dash of Adam Jones' emotional instability and what you have is the perfect recipe for a late-season let down. 

Perhaps letdown is too harsh.  After all, they still did manage to beat the Rams and the Cardinals and make the playoffs.  Nine wins is roughly three more than most would have given them in the preseason and should be applauded as a whole.  But the last quarter of the season, games 13-17, the Bengals were simply unimpressive at nearly every turn.  Leads weren't safe, comeback attempts were tenuous, confidence was not radiating from Paul Brown Stadium.  The playbook found its limitations with the inability to hold up against the blitz, the running attack was either fumbling the game away or forced into the backseat while playing from behind. 

The Bengals secondary was mightily exposed in the stretch run as a group of tired old men who couldn't hold up in the second half of games.  Their speed, tackling and communication deficiencies allowed teams to either crawl back from the dead or shove in the dagger that put the game away for good.  Leon Hall's absence was felt more than I expected.  I thought Adam Jones would elevate his game with such an increased workload but that didn't happen either.  No one, except for Taylor Mays before he got hurt, improved over the course of the season back there—no one made plays.  Reggie Nelson was the only remaining serviceable regular in the secondary but he wasn't enough. 

Chris Crocker has been on the team for two seasons too many—he's starting to smell like Dhani Jones in that way.  His dropped interception in the third quarter of the wild-card game sealed his doom for both another playoff game and perhaps his job.  Then, just in case there were any doubters left in the audience, he attempted to tackle Arian Foster with his back instead of with his hands or even with his head.  He and Nate Clements simply weren't the quality starters they were earlier in the year and one has to assume that's because of age.

On offense, the good news is that Andy Dalton has experienced first hand the level of play it takes to win in the postseason, and now I think he could really use the break.  I sensed an edge to him down the stretch, a kind of discomfort.  Most rookie quarterbacks don't even play, much less make the playoffs, and the mental rigors that come with that process is tough to imagine.  If the kid experienced a little burnout in the end, who could blame him.  Now he can relax for a while, cleanse his mind, and come back next year ready to have fun again. 

The next hurdle for Dalton and the others is learning to beat the tough-guy defenses.  While he improved on his ability to read defenses and check off accordingly, the basic nature of the offense seemed to find its limitations against the more formidable defenses on the schedule.  Also, the offensive line pass-protected poorly in the key games against Baltimore and Houston and while Dalton's pocket presence has been rightfully praised, he is still prone to getting rattled by too much pressure.  When Bobby Williams was shelved with a broken ankle, the effect was immediately visible.  Mike McGlynn's performance was underwhelming at best and the need for more depth at guard was concreted in many conversations around the area. 

It would have taken a great effort by the Bengals to rise up and defeat another playoff team—they were always outmatched—but it was there.  In key moments, concentration was lost and mistakes were made.  The lesson learned this quarter is that the season is long for a reason: it's hard to hold up.  The organizations that are the mentally toughest are the ones that show up in the playoffs every year; the others make seldom and brief appearances and are used as postseason fodder.  If the Bengals want to elevate themselves from the fill-ins, they have to be tougher at the end of next season. 



Mojokong—remember.

Bengals Playoff Party: Wild-Card Round

The Bengals are in the playoffs.  They certainly didn't arrive to the party on time and they weren't even dressed very well, but a back door was left cracked so Cincinnati hopped the fence and let themselves in.  This team knows what these shindigs are like; you got to be careful.  Everybody there is looking to outclass all the others.  One slip and you're back out in the January night.  Got to keep a low profile and hope to get near the bar and that's about it.

This year has certainly been one of the stranger entrances to such a thing.  What should be a sweet taste of success, is more like soap in the mouth.  That Ravens finale was a litmus test of playoff contention and the Bengals failed again, yet they're issued an invitation to the postseason anyway.  Funny world, this one. 

But they're in and that's all that matters today. 

First up is Houston.  Here was a team that was all glitz and glamor earlier this year.  All the talk among the party regulars was high on Houston when things started up in September.  Despite never being invited before, the playoff gods decided they earned a crack at it this year and the door man showed them in.  Yet as Houston removed its coat and stomped the snow from its boots, the others gasped at the newcomer.  Houston had been sharp and dapper earlier this season but now without a starting quarterback and an embarrassing loss to the Colts, it stood there tattered and smudged.  It mumbled something about ruffians out on the roads and fixed itself a stiff drink before explaining further. 

Cincinnati, meanwhile, hung back out of sight in the kitchen, snacking from a plate of cheese cubes and glaring at Houston.  It decided it would take a charge at the newbie and show the others it can take out the fresh meat.  That's the only way Cincinnati would be allowed to stick around, so it took a deep breath, stuffed a salami with cream cheese in its mouth and set out to handle some business.

Much has been written about this game, but very little has been actual on-field analysis.  The only thing anyone brings up about the Bengals is their inability to beat the quality teams.  That is a legit knock on them and the numbers certainly back that up, but that isn't going to be what the Bengals are thinking about when they line up on Saturday. 

To me, the game comes down to one kind of play: the stretch hand-off.  Houston, like Baltimore, wants to run off-tackle hand-offs where their fullback plows the way for huge gains by the tailback.  Then, once they establish their cut-blocking outside run attack, they typically run play-action off of the stretch play and roll out T.J. Yates with a shallow crosser (Owen Daniels) and a deeper crosser (Andre Johnson) rolling with him.  This makes the Bengals linebackers either bite on play-action handoffs, forcing them to scramble back to their coverage assignment, or resist flowing to the ball carrier for fear of getting beaten on play-action.  Either way, the scheme forces the linebackers to think more than react, which is rarely good.

They way to stop this is with zone defense.  Mike Zimmer would likely prefer to allow the shallow crosser to catch the pass and run up and make the tackle for five yards, rather than a linebacker get beat individually in man coverage for twenty-five yards.  The problem is, the Bengals secondary has problems communicating in zone coverage and all too often outside corners release their man without safety coverage behind them.  The Bengals defense must be on the same page in zone coverage or the breakdowns will kill them.

The other necessary improvement the Bengals defense must achieve is rallying to ball carriers better.  When this unit was consistently good, you would see defenders slow runners down just enough while the help would rally around them and gobble up ball carriers for minimal gains.  Lately, the second tier has been unable to shed their blocks and the play has too often come down to one man making the tackle.  All eleven men must flow together without over-pursuing, wrap up on tackles and help each other out by gang tackling. 

The Texans should run a safe, short passing game for fear of Yates making the big mistake.  They will likely lean on their stud running backs and dirty zone-blocking scheme.  They want to grind it out, use clock and have Neal Rackers try and kick them into the next round.  Bengals have to frazzle Yates when he tries to roll out, bait him into mistakes, shed blocks and rally.  Stop the stretch-play handoffs and the rest should fall into place for the Cincinnati defense.

On offense, the Bengals might want to use the Texans speed against them.  Houston likes their tall, rangy midsized defenders.  They want to get you going horizontally and track you down with their speed and length.  They lack beef but make up for it with pure athleticism.  A team like this is prone to over-pursue—especially one who will be geeked to play their first ever playoff game.  Since they are so good moving laterally, I wouldn't get the ball in the flats too much, but rather run right at them on the inside.  When Gruden does choose to explore the areas closer to the sideline, I think misdirection plays, end arounds and reverse hand offs could be daggers against an overeager defense. 

Brian Cushing is a warrior, Connor Barwin is a maniac and J.J. Watt is a bull, but get these guys out of position and they become harmless.  Appropriately-timed deception can take down the Houston Texans.   Everyone thinks that Andy Dalton is going to just throw it up to AJ Green all day, but with Joseph lurking over there with safety help, there is no reason just to chuck it down field when you can meticulously allow Houston to beat themselves.  Bengal fans remember what Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer did to their team in 2009 with essentially the perfect called game.  They didn't crush us on that day, but they decisively beat us, for sure.  Jay Gruden has the chance to do the same this Saturday.

Overall, I think Houston is the more talented team, but the Bengals have a better and more diverse scheme.  Cincinnati is good on the road, a lot of these guys have postseason experience and I don't think they will come out as awestruck children, but playoff games are serious business and the pressure that surrounds them can do strange things to people.  It's been a long time for this grizzled and downtrodden football city to feel it truly belongs in the upper echelon of the league and there are many worried people in the area right now, but our guys have a chance to do it right this time and because it's what makes football fun, I think they will.

Who dey.


Bengals 23, Texans 13


Mojokong—here for the memories.