Subtle Ripples

There has been very little splashing in the AFC North puddle this season.  In fact, one might look closely at its ripples and think it hasn't changed much at all.  The annual free-agency grades have made their rounds, and the greater public of analysts feel underwhelmed by the lack of moves in the division.  Teams have formed a holding pattern and it hasn't made for good copy.  Nonetheless, a larger picture is taking shape, even by the minimal changes, and we can now get the first sense of what kind of team to expect in uniform this season.

By and large, the cards—and the wallets—have been kept close to the chest.  Old-schoolers like Hines Ward, Aaron Smith and James Farrior were thrown into the volcano of cap-space, and others like Ben Grubbs, Jarret Johnson and Cory Redding floated away to other divisions in the free-agent sea.  The Browns picked up a couple of random defensive ends and Ricky Williams retired again.

Baltimore and Pittsburgh are finally facing the facts of human aging and their superhero defenses are now showing more rust than can be ignored.  Both teams are shedding the old husks for the youth next in line.  Each may have improved their long-term future by such a pruning, but the transition may be bumpy early on.

Cleveland is relying on a young team to get better on their own without much veteran assistance.  The perpetual youth movement in Cleveland could gain at least some traction with two more first-round picks in this upcoming draft, but for now, the Browns remain soft and mostly harmless.

In Cincinnati, however, a more tangible improvement can be sensed.  The most frequent criticism of their free-agency so far is that they didn't spend enough money.  Leading the league in cap-space, the Bengals could have splurged all over the high-profile names in this year's class, but guys like the hotheaded Courtland Finnegan and the the big-ticketed Carl Nicks were largely ignored.  Instead of adding the big piece, the Bengals kept the guys they liked, then hit up the thrift store and picked up a few items on the cheap.

Keeping Reggie Nelson was important.  The safety position is one of concern and would have become downright frightening had Nelson scored a contract elsewhere.  Manny Lawson's return also helps with consistency, depth and familiarity purposes.  Adam Jones was given a little less than a mil for one more chance to regain relevancy in what seems like a fair deal for both sides.

The new guys, on the other hand,  read like an odds-and-ends list.

First is a pair of busted first-round defensive ends who once flashed with football brilliance but failed to keep it together enough to live up to the hype.  Jamaal Anderson and Derrick Harvey are DIY reclamation projects that could be cleaned up real nice if Zimmer can do it just right.  Anderson looked good at times last year with the Colts and seems more “ready” than does Harvey.  Each signed low-risk contracts for the Bengals so if they don't pan out, the team isn't tied to them.  Mike Brown loves him a scratch-and-dent sale and these two are fresh off the heap.

Also purchased from the has-been section are a couple of corners added to the collection of average defensive backs the Bengals currently employ.  Terence Newman has yet to sign, but I am rather certain this will happen soon and become reunited with his old bossman Zim.  Newman is older, perhaps past his prime, but not completely useless yet.  I think he can cover better than Nate Clements or Kelly Jennings, and, again, has some previous knowledge of the system.  The other is Jason Allen who I remember being roasted in Miami and thinking the guy didn't look like an NFL player at all.  He was traded to Houston and redeemed himself some there, but terrible first impressions are hard to shake.  It seems he's okay in zone and is a decent tackler, but any one-on-one match-up scares me with Allen out there.

Even if these guys are just filler, teams need filler and there is certainly deeper and dirtier stuff one can scrape from the bottom of the barrel than this group.

The biggest boost for the Bengals though, is on the other side of the ball.  I don't know much about Trevelle Wharton, but I do know that they have ran the ball well in Carolina for many seasons now.  I also know how unimpressed I was with Nate Livings the last two seasons, so Wharton is a welcomed fat body for better depth alone at the guard position.  With no smoke signals coming out of the Bobby Williams camp about his limited football future, the Bengals simply need guys to fill the position; signing Wharton may quietly prove to be one of the more important moves of the off-season for the Stripes.

The biggest splash in the AFC North, however, is adding the Law Firm, BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  When I first heard of the signing I thought, “that's weird”.  Like many, I was attracted to the 245 lbs. of  Michael Bush, but Marvin Lewis and Jay Gruden wanted to go the other direction.

The move makes sense when you think about what Marvin values.  Green-Ellis has never fumbled, that still astounds me.  He gets low to pick up the tough yards.  Marvin loves low pad level, and how frustrating has it been to watch Cedric Benson hop side-to-side on short yardage runs the last two years, forcing a deflating punt of field-goal try almost every time?  Benson's best attribute was his longevity—the guy did not tire easily—but his skill set doesn't lend itself to getting the tough yards up the gut, and even though Law Firm weighs less, he is more of a straight ahead runner than is Benson.

With Green-Ellis, the Bengals can expand the scope of their offense to incorporate more snaps to the other backs and throw more short-yardage stuff out of the backfield, paramount in a west-coast offense.  Brian Leonard and Bernard Scott each have unique abilities that do not fit into the traditional halfback prototype.  Before, Benson dominated the ball and complained about any variation of him getting the vast majority, if not every, carry.  Now the other two can blend more seamlessly with Green-Ellis and be part of the overall offense instead of a jarring in-game shift of style and form.  I understand the pang of disappointment many of us felt by choosing Law Firm over Bush, but schematically, I think the Bengals made the right choice and that the improvement will become immediately visible in games.

There is still plenty of coin left in the coffers and the Bengals are just weird enough to try and pull off some kind of late blockbuster deal like heisting Mike Wallace from Pittsburgh, but ultimately, I think the team wants to keep as much cash as possible around to sign their young studs to forever contracts.  With the pair of first-round picks coming in April and once-quality starters like Leon Hall and Keith Rivers on the mend, things are coming up roses so far in Cincy, even if it isn't making too many waves in the puddle.  A real foundation is concreting within this team and they appear to be stockpiled enough to become both a short-term and long-term threat to their divisional foes.  Detractors beware.


Mojokong—feeling it.

The Carry Over

Expectations are tricky in the NFL. Trends are fleeting, roster turnover is heavy, and prolonged success or failure moves in short wavelengths.  Teams can fall apart mid-season and take months to repair.  Others can catch fire late in the year and win the dadgum Super Bowl. 

The Bengals are a good example of a team that defies expectation.  In 2009, they were supposed to struggle but won the AFC North.  The next year they added TO and the training-camp Super Bowl talk began, but then they flopped to a 4-12 record and left the stage in an embarrassing uproar.  Last year, anyone with a prediction of more than eight wins for the Bengals would have been shunned as a crazy person while all the others said five or less, but with a rookie quarterback and a pretty good defense they made their way to nine wins and a wild-card spot.  Pretty amazing.

Sadly, the trend would point to the Stripes choking once more in 2012, and even if they don't want to admit it, that little obnoxious factoid is alive and well in every Bengal fans' psyche when thinking ahead to this upcoming season.  But worry not, my Bengal brethren, there is much hope this time around. 

Achieving success through multiple seasons starts with team foundation.  When you look around the league, most of the playoff regulars have great ownership.  Bengals owner Mike Brown has been lambasted for decades by critics who point to the team's notorious losing and the shady stadium deal he negotiated with the city in the mid-90's.   He's become a human Montgomery Burns who has been a terrific source of humorous mocking. 

Mike Brown, however, is growing into a real life NFL owner and not some schlep who tinkers around with his daddy's team.  For the first time in my memory, MB has created positions in order to help the Bengals win.  He brought in consultant Jim McNally, made up a useless coaching title for Hue Jackson and now hired a West-Coast scout named Steven Radicevic.  Brown's drafts have been terrific the past  two seasons and his Carson Palmer maneuvering gets an entry into the business-villain handbook.  He's pulled off other trades like nabbing Reggie Nelson and Taylor Mays, scooped up quiet free-agent signings like Donald Lee and Thomas Howard, and positioned himself this off-season with a huge amount of cap-space and two first-round draft picks.  The guy has played his cards well recently, and tyrant or not, he deserves some credit.

The next level of sound infrastructure is that of coaching.  Secondary coach Kevin Coyle headed south for the sunshine of Miami, but Mike Zimmer and Jay Gruden both came back for another go and there is talk about extending Marvin Lewis' contract before the season gets underway.  Cincinnati has stockpiled a lot of coaching talent with the addition of Hue Jackson and new secondary coach Mark Carrier and as a whole, the collection should attract the attention of free-agents in the next few weeks.

With smart ownership and good coaching in place, Andy Dalton has the support to flourish in this system.  He and Gruden found a spark last season when both men were new to the league and many thought it would take a long time, if ever, to make it work.  With a full off-season together, and a growing familiarity in what is already a logical play-calling scheme, there is no reason to think that Dalton will struggle much next season.  Red is a common-man leader, a smiling grit.  Carson was a company-policy guy and was treated as a precious resource.  Dalton's yeoman attitude doesn't invite the tidal waves of personal pressure that Palmer felt while in Cincinnati; he doesn't have to be the golden god of quarterbacks, he just has to win. 

Attitude goes a long way toward a strong team foundation and is something the team has struggled with in years past.  This team, starting with Dalton, does have an endearing quality of modesty and workman-like charisma, but there are still a few grumps and divas in the mix.  One is Cedric Benson who simply wants the ball on every play no matter what.  I think he officially has complained his way out of town and no one that follows these things thinks he will be back.  While Benson is tireless and always strong, he wants too much too often.  Ultimately it translates into selfishness and there is no room for that in a team setting, ask Chad.

Next is Adam Jones.  Once an out-of-this-world talent, Jones looked pretty mediocre last year when he came back from a neck and a hamstring injury.  He still yells at people at bit too easily for my liking and I am not sure he is worth keeping around due to his explosive personality.  The Bengals aren't particularly deep at corner, especially with Leon Hall coming back from an Achilles injury, but average guys aren't worth big headaches.

Last is, of course, Jerome Simpson.  Gifted but brainless.  Even had he not been involved with pounds of herb mailed to his home, he still has an emotional fragility about  him that frightens me when identified in grown men.  As a football player, he can do the impossible but can't do the routine.  He flashes and you want to put more stock into him, but his dependability is flimsy and he productivity is inconsistent.  When he returns to football, he will surely face a suspension and why would the Bengals put more faith into a project that seldom functioned?

Once they rid themselves of a few bad apples, and cleanse the locker-room culture some, the next factor is the development of their current players.  A lot depends upon the youngsters getting better and the veterans healing up. 

There are many questions on the defensive side of the ball.  Will Keith Rivers be effective again?  Will Taylor Mays and/or Robert Sands be ready to start this year?  Will Carlos Dunlap return to his old monster self?  While Zim's return acts a stabilizing force to the group dynamic, I feel the success of the unit is somewhat tenuous as many young players must now seize the jobs of aged veterans.  The Bengals can no longer rely on old faces like Crocker and Geathers and Clements.  Players like Michael Johnson and Rey Maualuga need to prove they can get better, players like Dontay Moch and Brandon Ghee need to prove they can get on the field, and players like Leon Hall and Rivers need to prove they still got it.  It's a transitional year for the defense, and the smoothness of that transition rests in the development of the younger players.

On offense, many players are expected to improve, mainly Dalton and AJ Green, but it's Jermaine Gresham's development that will be the x-factor next season.  For the past two years we've heard how Gresham could be the best tight end in the league.  He will be entering his third season in 2012, and this is the year that he matures into the star that he is destined to become.  Physically, he can do it all including block which is what many young tight ends lack these days, but he still seems to miss a certain level of concentration.  He has had ball-security issues throughout and his fumble in Week 17 against the Ravens was an absolute killer.  He had too many penalties last year and the coaches are always shaking their heads at him.  I like how he mixes it up with other teams and seems to have a knack for getting under the skin of his opponents, and he has all the ability in the world, but if the Bengals want to be the offensive powerhouse it can be, Gresham needs to boost his rating from 8 to  10.

The Bengals aren't going to sneak up on anyone next year.  They will be expected to do well and make the playoffs again.  Ticket sales will improve, national prime-time games will be scheduled.  The hype will ratchet up in Cincinnati and beyond.  Marvin Lewis will attempt to put together back-to-back winning seasons for the first time ever, and he will have a terrific crop of goods to try it with.  If it's going to happen, the kids have to grow up and be men.  A new power is rising; the time is now!

Mojokong—expect greatness.