Slay The Cupcakes

Late last year, Cincinnati came to grips with the limits of their young offense.  By the end, it seemed they had pulled all the rabbits from their hat.  Now, in their second year together, Jay Gruden and Andy Dalton must widen the scope of their mutated west-coast offense. 

The defense should be fine. It brings back ten starters from last year with Mike Zimmer still at the helm.  It has added depth at key spots and is relying on young guys to further develop in order to truly reach the ranks of an elite defense.  Therefore, it seems to me that the ability to score points, especially against the weaker teams is most paramount.

The schedule is a tease this year for the Bengals.  After the opener in Baltimore on Monday night, it forms into a constellation of cupcakes with Cleveland twice, Washington, Jacksonville and Miami.  Yet after the stroll down easy street, the path becomes a bit more rocky and at least some losses will occur.

Such a lopsided schedule makes for more pressure to win all of the easier games early on.  That way, when in the weeds, Cincinnati still would have that five-game win streak in its pocket.  A stretch like that can make up for a rough patch later on and still get a team into the wild-card round (see: Bengals, 2011).  So win or lose (hopefully win) after that Monday Night game, Dalton and his mates are going to have to cruise and win at least four of the next five games.

Bad teams like playing ugly football.  Sometimes low-scoring games are unavoidable, the NFL is a competitive league, and the Bengals were kind of built for those kinds of games last year.  But this offense has the tools to be a Patriots Jr. type of group and should see more point production in 2012. 

One of the big problems early on last year was converting third downs, hitting the home run play and getting touchdowns in the red zone.  After AJ Green established himself as one of the better receivers in the league despite his rookie status, the big plays, and then third-down conversions began to trickle in and so did the wins.  Now that Dalton, Green and Gruden are no longer rookies, those growing pains should be a thing of the past.  The trust-level should increase between coordinator and quarterback, and the ability to attack the opposing defense rather than just settle for field position should be evident early on against potentially vulnerable teams.  Four of the five games mentioned feature likely rookie starting quarterbacks, and the fifth guy is Blaine Gabbert.  The idea is to force young signal-callers into comeback mode, a mode often laden with mistakes and 'learning opportunities'. 

This training camp should emphasize quick-strike plays that put defenses on their heels right away.  The first fifteen plays should be scripted around getting points now and worrying about field position and time-management later.  With the change of personnel, especially the departure of Cedric Benson, the time is ripe for a noticeable switch in philosophy.

Obviously, the comparisons and parallels of the Bengals offense with that of the Patriots begin with the arrival of BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  He was the main cog in New England's rushing attack but never did the Pats allow him to carry the heavy load.  Instead they broke it up between multiple backs, an approach the Bengals only toyed with at times, but appear to taking much more seriously this season.  Green-Ellis will have a major role with the team, but I don't think it will be as anchored as Benson's was. 

New England's offense last year was heavy with short passes and yards after catch.  Their running backs were so versatile, that in their no-huddle offense, they would line up in three different spots in consecutive plays.  While I don't think Gruden is going to employ the hyper hurry-up mode that Tom Brady orchestrated last year, I do think the Bengal offense has prime short-yardage receivers. 

We've all heard the comparisons of Wes Welker to Jordan Shipley and a lot of us think it's because they are both white receivers, but they do play with similar style and both are reliable as hell when they're healthy.  Shipley appears designed as an ideal slot receiver and his return from knee surgery made Andre Caldwell's departure a kind of no-brainer.  But it's the other slot receiver that I think makes this offense more intriguing than what is noticed at first glance.

Andrew Hawkins is another little guy, built for small spaces on the football field, but at the end of the day, he gets the most out of every play he's involved in.  After AJ Green hurt himself making a terrific touchdown catch, I felt Hawkins became Cincinnati's most viable option on third down last year.  He runs good routes, catches the ball, and is surprisingly tough to tackle.  Having two slot guys like this allows the Bengals to enjoy mismatches aplenty and short-route receptions can be used in lieu of the running game—just like New England does.

The best part of the Patriot offense is their tight ends, and to say the Bengals have the same kind of talent at the position is overly presumptuous.  Jermaine Gresham has been granted the body of an NFL tight end, complete with every skill he needs to be great.  But I still get the sense that he hasn't completely mastered such a complex and overpowering gift.  Unlike baseball, patience is short in football and teams need to see a player's best as soon as possible.  If Gresham is going to be the unleashed animal he can be, this is the year we must see it.  He can be a difference maker—he can have a Gronk-like impact on the game—especially if the slots are occupied by Shipley and Hawkins, but it's up to him to make that happen.  He's been coached enough, he has the experience, now it's time for him to put it all together and dominate.  As for Orson Charles, he too has the look of a quality tight end and his strengths are reportedly in the passing game.  He is knocked as a blocker, but so was Aaron Hernandez, and he worked out pretty well.

The last category of short-yardage targets are the backs.  We know how the Law Firm worked out in this scheme and there is no reason that we should expect much different if employed the same way.  Brian Leonard is a better receiver than running back and his extra-effort and abilities to make tacklers miss in the open field have been well documented.  Bernard Scott can catch screens but I wouldn't say he has displayed much versatility in that regard.

I haven't mixed Green into this hypothetical offense because the guy can do it all.  If all of this short stuff to other players has any success, safeties will cheat up, and Green will find himself one-on-one with a very worried cornerback trying to guard him.  Green can make the big play, but he showed he can make things happen on shorter routes too.  There are three young receivers who will battle it out this July in order to play second fiddle to Green and they will have to be possession guys to some degree, but whoever wins said battle will not likely be a first option very often.

While all of these individual toys are fun to mentally play with, it's Dalton and his pre-snap reads that will make all of this stuff work.  Brady is exceptional at keying in on one defender to make his quick decision, and rarely is he wrong.  To think Dalton is on that level is unfair to both men, but he is climbing in his aptitude tests and his recognition skills should be improved from his first season.  For the most part, his throws are fine (an improved deep ball would do wonders though), but it's his mastery of the offense that will make the difference.  Learning the looks of pro defenses will assist in the scoring of more points, and a lot of points early on will sink a weaker team's battleship.

This type of an offense would be more spread out than a typical Bengals offense of the past.  The fullback is less present in a scheme like this, overloaded lines aren't necessary.  Four and five-wide formations would be the norm and it would put additional pressure on opposing nickel and dime packages.  This would be a big shift in a Marvin Lewis team and the question then becomes, would he be okay with such a move?  I think so.  I doubt he would consent to the type of player moves that occurred this offseason if he wasn't prepared for a shift.

So if the Bengals want to avoid having to beat all the good teams down the stretch to get into the playoffs, they need to take care of business against the substandard.  Best way to beat a bad team is to get ahead early and dare them to come back.  Best way to get ahead early for the Bengals is to use the short passing game to set up the home run ball. 

If it sounds too easy, that's because it is.  Nothing plays out perfectly as predicted, but something has to be a point of emphasis this training camp, and if a twist to this offense is to occur, it should be to put Andy Dalton more in charge.  More responsibility, more accountability, more points, and more passing.  I think a lot will be different, and I think it starts with Big Red.

Mojokong—and even though the flowers bloom...

The Load Left Behind

Cedric Benson was not a perfect back. He stopped his feet and fumbled too often, had limited catching ability and got grumpy when another man carried the rock. But the guy was durable. He did not get tired or injured very often and his conditioning was extremely reliable. In Benson's case, mileage was never an issue.

The league has firmly adopted the two-back approach to run the ball these days and the Bengals have steered away from the feature-back theory themselves. Gone is Benson, lingering in the free agent market but sidling up to Oakland, reportedly. Here now is BenJarvus Gree-Ellis, but the thinking among the Bengal contingent is that the Law Firm will not see the amount of carries that was dumped upon Benson. Instead, Bernard Scott is expected to get an increased workload, and Brian Leonard and Cedric Peerman could also take more hand offs. It sounds okay going into mini-camps and eventually training camp, but I feel the question still remains: can these guys hold up physically to the wear and tear of more carries?

It would only make sense that Marvin Lewis feels good about loosening the reigns on Andy Dalton coming into his second year. All the protection the team provided the ginger last year with a heavy run attack and simple-game planning becomes less of a priority as Dalton masters the offense and the game. The receiving corps looks more formidable entering into this season, and the offensive line has been upgraded at both starting guard positions. I would expect Dalton's pass attempts to grow from last year's total and that alone will help the run game.

Still, this is the AFC North and despite the constant evolution of the passing game, running the ball remains important, especially late in the season. Green-Ellis is a tough runner but he isn't very big. Leonard is a big runner but he's better catching short passes in space. Scott is a fast runner with good vision, but is easily brought down. Peerman is a bowling ball runner but unproven and coaches worry about him protecting the ball. Many thought the team would add a running back as high as the first round in this year's draft. It didn't happen in any round. Michael Bush visited along with Law Firm, but no one expected them to sign both players. Instead, Bush went to Chicago and the Bengals felt better about BenJarvus.

In the last three years, Benson averaged right around 300 carries each season, while Green-Ellis has never topped 230. I had rallied for two years to get B. Scott more touches, but when he finally did, I felt underwhelmed by the outcome. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little disappointed with him last year.

Only time will tell if this is a concern even worth raising, but it feels like the farm finally sent Boxer to the glue factory and are now replacing him with a couple of ponies. Can they pull the weight? Will they hold up this winter? Much depends on the draft horses. They move an entire offense.

Mojokong—mini burst. 

Survival of the Illest

The NFL is naturally selective.  Like our old homeboy Chuck Darwin pointed out, species prevent extinction by adapting and genetically evolving traits that work for them.  Each offseason, every team goes through a mini-blast of evolution, keeping what they think already works and trying out new things like adding an extra finger or a bunch of cornerbacks, whatever makes the most sense at the time.  Some teams are forced to constantly rebuild in the primordial soup of failed draft-pick development, while the winners have found their home on land, stomping around upright on two legs, breathing with lungs and using thumbs and eventually nuclear power. 

If the Giants then, Super Bowl champions and conveniently nicknamed for this metaphor, are fully-formed humans, the Bengals are a close hominid, Neanderthal perhaps.  Now that the draft is over, aside from some minor shuffling, we see this specimen emerge from its cave—a bit less slouched than last year—stretch, take a leak, and go off to kick some ass and find some food. 

It seems wise to make only minor changes to a young playoff team like the Bengals—meddling is what ruined 2010—and nearly everyone agrees they made off like thieves in the draft, but I can't help but worry (I'm a worrier) that some major questions remain.

Most of you loyal readers are aware of my concerns about the safety position.  It's razor thin right now with four guys listed and only one of them used to starting.  With the two-dozen corners Cincinnati collected in the offseason, one if not two will likely be thrown back there in training camp to see if they can hold up.  It seems like for many years tight ends have enjoyed a lot of open space to catch footballs against the Bengals.  Often times we would blame whichever journeyman safety was too slow to keep up at the time.  Marvin Lewis has searched long and hard for a fixture at strong safety with older free-agents and very little success.  Taylor Mays has made strides since donning stripes, and by the lack of effort in acquiring a new one, it seems the team is comfortable penciling him in as a starter for now.  He is a natural-born hitter, but his coverage skills have hounded his reputation since entering the pros.  Robert Sands has good size and year of tutelage under his belt, but he is still very raw and I would be uneasy to see him forced into a starting role just yet.  Don't know much about George Iloka, but it's safe to say his immediate contributions will likely come on special teams.

My other concern is the elusive number-two receiver.  In the stretch run of both 2009 and 2011, multiple receivers became injured, rendering the offense too limited and predictable to win a playoff game.  While Jordan Shipley is back in the slot, along with new fan-favorite Andrew Hawkins, having a capable player opposite of AJ Green will open things up for everyone else.  If Green were to miss any time, God forbid, the number-two would become crucial to maintaining a capable passing attack.  If that player cannot threaten the opposing secondary by getting open deep, defending the short-routed possession guys will be a breeze from that point on.  The run would then become more difficult and things fall apart from there. Of course, that's a fairly doomsday outlook on the future and I hope that doesn't happen, but we've seen it—felt it—happen before.

Like all rookies, the two new Bengal wide outs fill us with hope.  Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones seem to have some NFL pedigree, a lot of scouts like them, but they're rookies nonetheless.  Local college graduate, Armon Binns, is quietly garnering a lot of hype within the Bengal fan base and there are many who expect him to surprise the league very soon.  Ryan Whalen showed flashes of reliability late last year and knows the offense better then the others mentioned here, yet he certainly doesn't scare anyone.  The two tight ends, Jermaine Gresham and Orson Charles, are big athletic targets capable of exploiting mismatches all over the field, but wide outs they are not. I realize that the number-two wide receiver is not the most crucial piece to the puzzle, but in the NFL, any inadequacy can and will be exploited by the competition.

There is much well-founded optimism in the shape of this year's striped Neanderthal.  Many good and productive tasks have been completed this winter and spring and now we can watch the blooming fruits of that labor come to harvest this autumn, but those fruits will not be without flaw.  The Bengals will have to work even harder to overcome their shortcomings.  An NFL-ready strong safety and a play-making number-two receiver must be in place to allow this team to move farther into the playoffs.  The candidates are young, but the coaching is good.  Only time will tell, survival of the fittest.


Mojokong—using my thumbs.

Bengal Beef

Defensive tackle wasn't all that recognized as a team need, yet the Bengals took two in the first three rounds. Could be a response to the Browns drafting Trent Richardson or could just be the best guys on the Bengals board, either way, 600-plus pounds were just added to the pack of wilder beasts on the defensive front, and running just became more difficult.

I like the stockpiling for a variety of reasons.

Teams should have identities. Those who don't drift through their schedule with minimal long-term impact on the league. The reigning champs load up on pass-rushers and come after quarterbacks. The Bengals are loading up on tackles and daring teams to run against them. Thanks to the youth in the position, this kind of draft strategy could have those lingering benefits good teams enjoy once their identity has been crafted.

Secondly, I developed a concern about the rush defense once a couple of good run-support ends left this offseason for greener pastures. Johnathan Fanene and Frostee Rucker were thicker guys with motors, yet the Bengals replaced them with sleeker speed-ends in Derrick Harvey and Jamaal Anderson. Retaining Pat Sims for another year was a key move for this defense, but until the draft, that still only left three tackles which in retrospect, seemed flimsy.

Also, choosing two tackles so early could be a response to the abilities of both Ray Rice and now Trent Richardson. In Week 17 of last year, Rice sliced up the Bengals defense with two long touchdown runs, then, a week later in the Wild-Card game, Arian Foster did the same. Now the Cleveland Browns have selected an all-world talent in Richardson who promises to be a problem for the division right away. These two guys aren't going away anytime soon and countering with a beefier defensive line makes a lot of sense.

I like the look of Devon Still. Not a fat man, this broad-shouldered mountain was pretty highly praised by a lot of draft wizards consistently mentioning his immediate readiness on the pro level. The Big-Ten defensive player of the year had 4.5 sacks last year indicating an ability to disrupt the quarterback. He seems like another three-technique guy and am excited to watch him this summer.

Brandon Thompson is a natural run-stuffer whose major criticism seems to be one of technique when double-teamed. If he is considered stellar against the run but plays with poor technique, some good coaching could making him a monster up the gut. He's got the proverbial motor, he gets the push at the point of attack, he's thick enough to disrupt, and he is the right kind of guy to collect.

Just imagine the forlorn faces of those worn out guards that are forced to go up against fresh 300-pound bodies on what seems like every snap. First it's Peko and Atkins, then it's Still and Thompson, and then, just for kicks, they mix in Pat Sims and laugh about it on the sidelines.

Of course the linebackers play better with improved defensive tackle play, and if any linebacker in the league could use less block shedding it's Rey Maualuga. The one-time man-child hopeful is still best when he can seek and destroy. Rey is not a thinking man. After years of defensive coaches telling him to think less and react more, Rey has taken the philosophy to the literal extreme and often appears as lost as a babe in the wood when used in coverage. If the beefcakes up front can fill their holes and keep Maualuga uncovered, he will have the impact on the game that we all dreamed he would when he was drafted.

The cattle ranch is in full effect in Cincinnati these days as one can find multiple large mammals grazing on the practice field grass next to the stadium. These specimens are defensive tackles and they could become the trademark to this team. The franchise now has a layer of its foundation committed to being tough against the run and the Bengals finally have something to hang their hat on for years to come.

Mojokong - beefy things happening.