Week 4 Preview: Intelligence Prevails

Good coaching is bleeding through this team. What looked incomplete and overwhelmed in the beginning now looks like a reasonable work in progress. Last week's win over Washington made a statement—as low-profile as it may have been—that this offense is a clever one and that points will be had. Even some of the bewildering doom and gloom surrounding Mike Zimmer's unit dissipated with the return of Carlos Dunlap. Marvin Lewis speaks so proudly of his young squad and his contentment eases some of my concerns too.  Maybe this is an all-star cast of coaching after all, or maybe this is the easy portion of the schedule and we're getting ahead of ourselves. 

Nonetheless, thirty points have been exceeded two weeks in a row and Andy Dalton appears to be in command of his offense. Andrew Hawkins continues to flabbergast with his effort, his quickness and his will to succeed. No other player gets more out of his opportunities than does Baby Hawk. A.J. Green has officially reserved a seat in the elite receivers' row of the NFL, and Jermaine Gresham bounced back from a tough start with a nice performance in D.C. I liked seeing Orson Charles get involved, and Armon Binns has thankfully made it easy to forget about Jerome Simpson.  The receiving corps is multifaceted and hungry to prove themselves.  Jay Gruden is utilizing them to the best of their abilities and you can sense their collective confidence growing.  The only thing fun about the NFL is success, and this passing attack appears to be having fun right now.

The one blight on the day offensively last week was BenJarvus Green-Ellis suffering his first ever fumble, but it was bound to happen and I'm just glad that it's outta the way. I know some are worried about the running game, but I think its design fits the rest of the scheme. Some teams rely on explosive runs, but the Bengals rely on short passes that act as runs. All the Cincinnati backs have to do is move forward and hold on to the ball. Bernard Scott may be a lost cause if he can't get on the field more often, but Brian Leonard has a chance to shine as a backup runner for Jay Gruden. The offensive line is not the panic we feared it would be after losing two interior starters to injury and the whole rushing game needs to keep grinding and be okay with three-yard runs. Gruden is a sensible play-caller with smart creativity. Cincinnati is lucky to have him.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, however, have Bob Bratkowski calling their plays. Okay, let's take a moment to laugh it out and collect ourselves before continuing. Right then.We know what Brat likes and dislikes. What  Bengal fans are less familiar with though, is the influence of Mike Mularkey. When Marvin Lewis was hired, Mularkey was a serious candidate for the same job in Cincinnati. He's called plays in Pittsburgh and Buffalo and probably other stops that aren't worth researching. The inanity of Brat's outlook on offensive football may be reigned back with the presence of Mularkey as head coach. If not, look for the Jags to run Maurice Jones-Drew on an off-tackle stretch play every first down and try long vertical passes on third-and-short situations. Brat doesn't, or at list didn't, make adjustments. His quarterback, Blaine Gabbert, is only mildly improved from a disastrous rookie year and still gets really frazzled in the face of the pass rush. The weapons surrounding Gabbert is a modest list of names highlighted by the big rookie receiver Justin Blackmon. The big-time draft pick has not been thrilled with the start of his professional career and has grumbled about it some to the media. Look for the Jags to force him the ball in order to placate his ego and justify some of the millions that they have invested in the young man.

MJD is a lot like Ray Rice, everyone says so. They're small but strong, hard to tackle, have legs like fire-hydrants and are explosive in the open field. The big difference is that Baltimore has many more options outside of Rice, while the Jags become paltry at best without MJD. So rather than run-blitz, I would stay at home on running downs, giving Mojo four or so yards and then come after Gabbert on third down with intense nickel and dime blitzes. If MJD moves them downfield for field goals but Gabbert can't get comfortable enough to throw touchdowns, the Bengals win. If Zimmer worries too much about the running game and leaves the secondary in tough one-on-one situations they may be needlessly shocked by a big game from Gabbert.

For some reason, I feel that the Jacksonville special teams is vulnerable in the return game too. Watching them on tape, one can get a sense of weakness coming from somewhere within its ranks. I boldly predict two big returns in this game, one for a score. Despite the momentary trickery run amok last week that resulted in Kevin Huber relying on a Domata Peko block to spring him for a 12-yard scamper to the end-zone on a fake field-goal attempt, Darrin Simmons and his boys have been pretty solid.

It's difficult to score 30 points three weeks in a row. Jacksonville can be ran on and if the Bengals secure a lead, I would expect more BJGE than what we saw last week. Teams will begin to game-plan the Bengals by trying to take away the quick pass. This will help the rushing totals, time-of-possession, and general game-management if the right adjustments are made. The Jags are only minutely improved from last season and should remain a beatable team.

Bengals 28, Jags 12

Mojokong—make mine a double.

Week 3 Preview: Set The Edge

From what I'm told, the seats inside FedEx field are a tight squeeze. Leading the league in capacity, Dan Snyder does everything he can to pack them in on Sundays. What he's done recently, of course, is add a premium playmaker and a crown jewel piece to the franchise. Robert Griffin III should keep fans from doing much sitting in those tiny seats for years to come with his electrifying skill set and dynamic ability. Sunday will be his the first true display in Washington. Like a Smithsonian exhibit, Skins fans will marvel at the rare and gifted abilities of RGIII. He fuels excitement. He's a human sports-drink.

On the other end of all of this are the Cincinnati Bengals. After a pitiful opener followed by a tie-loosening win over the Browns, Bengals fans are still waiting for a faith-restoring performance worthy of calming their nerves and relaxing their anxiety about this team. The defense continues to smack of mediocrity and while statistically not bad, Andy Dalton has not been at his best—no matter what the national media say.

There is a lot to be encouraged by within this offense. You can see the growth in this squad and I think they will really begin to come into their own soon. That being said, I feel that the team still isn't entirely on the same page offensively yet. While not taking any real shots, Dalton was sacked six times last week and almost all of them were the result of a busted play or a bad read. The pocket presence that was so sharp for Dalton last year just hasn't been that impressive so far in 2012. He looks freaked out more often and when the first read hasn't been there, there's been no plan B in place to prevent a loss on the play. I still think Jermaine Gresham is vital to this offense and if he doesn't raise his game soon, there will be a gaping void where a major weapon should be and the results will become tangible. Andrew Hawkins has dazzled as most of us Bengal fans expected, but he still seems to be taken too lightly by the opposition. The success of Hawkins has lessened the letdown of Gresham's lack of impact, but Gresham must realize the physical monster that he is. His brain must work with his huge frame and stay focused through the whistle. There's no question that focus is all he lacks.

And while Gresham remains a potential mismatch against nearly every team, I think it will be Hawkins who again will be the difference maker. The Washington secondary is not that great on tape. Danny Amendola absolutely torched them last week, mostly on shallow crossing routes and Hawkins is a similar kind of slot receiver. It was reported that there was some dissension in the ranks within the Redskin coaching staff, resulting in defensive backs coach, Raheem Morris, calling man-to-man plays over defensive coordinator Jim Haslett's zone scheme. If the Skins go back to Haslett and the zone, Baby Hawk is the ideal player to find open spaces underneath and keep drives alive. If they go man-to-man, they will have to match up with A.J. Green individually and that doesn't bode well for any cornerback in the league. Look for Washington to blitz from the safety and nickle spots on third down in order to compensate for the loss of their best pass rusher, Brian Orakpo, out with a torn muscle. I think Dalton will continue to throw the ball often and end up with another day of high yardage, but I would like to see him in even more command of this offense.

Defensively the Bengals must account for the speed of the Washington offense. Even though Pierre Garcon is looking iffy to go on Sunday, the Skins employ other speedsters who they like to get the ball to early and in space. The Redskins run so many of their plays out of the shotgun read-option. They almost always play-action in the shotgun formation, but, of course, sometimes their new running back, Alfred Morris, takes the hand off and runs off tackle. Then RGIII will take it himself and skirt to the outside. Then he will play-action and throw a quick bubble screen to his fast, kick-returner-like receivers. Then he will fake the bubble screen and instead fire it to his tight end, Fred Davis, on a seam route up the middle. So many options.

For the Bengals, the defense has to set the edges on the outside. Carlos Dunlap returns this week to assist a struggling Bengals pass rush, but he and the other defensive ends have to be sure not to get too far upfield or sucked into the scrum of blockers. Keeping RGIII in the pocket and sacrificing up-the-gut runs for outside containment should be the plan against such a dynamo at quarterback. If Mike Zimmer is going to blitz, he should do so from the middle to flush Griffin out into the awaiting ends. Zimmer has used similar strategies for Ben Roethlisberger to prevent him from rolling out and improvising his way into a big play. If RGIII can shake-and-bake his way to the flats and become the duel-threat that Mike Shanahan envisions of him, the slowish Cincinnati secondary has no chance to cover the speed of the Washington passing attack for that long. If the edge isn't set, the points could go up in bunches.

When the schedule first came out, most locked this up as a Bengals win. Now, three weeks into the actual games, there is a new feel to this match-up. Marvin Lewis teams in the past have thrived when the spotlight moves away from his team and onto a more interesting media spectacle like RGIII. The hype is certainly strong with this young Jedi and the expectations are rapidly growing. Those ninety thousand or so fans squished into a giant FedEx box somewhere in Virginia on Sunday will expect fireworks. If they get their wish early in the game, the momentum may spin out of control and allow Robert Griffin III to feel unstoppable. If the Bengals defense can somehow humble him, the respect will swing back their way. There's a lot on the line for it only being Week 3. Many lingering questions should be answered by Sunday night. Hope I got the wrong feeling.

Redskins 31, Bengals 28

Mojokong—a lot to prepare for.

Week 2 Preview: Bygones

What happened in Baltimore is most discouraging, but we all woke up the next day and the day after that, so apparently all is not lost. Still, a trouncing wasn't expected and the national stage burst into flames once again for the Bengals. We can shake our heads all we want but the fact is, Cleveland is up next and so to raise our spirits, let's just forget that mortifying Monday-nighter against the Ravens and live in the now.

Thank God Joe Haden is missing this one; that boy is bad. So is D'Qwell Jackson (yep, spelled right), T.J. Ward, and Jabaal Sheard, for that matter. This defense grew up some last year and they have the personnel to get noticed soon. They created five turnovers and dropped two others last week, but most of that was Michael Vick being brainless with the ball. What's important, though, is that the Browns had a fourth quarter lead with six minutes left thanks to those turnovers made by that defense and if Andy Dalton suffers from similar brain cramps, they could make him pay.

Of all things to be left standing in some positive light last week, the offensive line—particularly the middle three—looked professional as hell. The pass protection came out admirably and the run blocking looked consistent. One of the rare criticisms mentioned with the Ravens is their current lack of pass rush, and the hippos up front for the Bengals did nothing to change that reputation. From what I saw in the Cleveland game, either the Browns' pass rush is disruptive in the pocket, or Vick just can't stay put for very long. I suspect it's both and I think Dalton will have to make some plays out of the pocket himself. If it really gets harry, look for BenJarvus Green-Ellis to be called on to chip the pass rush in max protect formations, though I don't think the sacks will get out of hand if the Bengals stick with their short passing and screen game.

Since Hayden is out, A.J. Green can breathe more comfortably but if he relaxes across the middle, T.J. Ward will remind him what league he's in. If the Browns put Sheldon Brown on Green (that's a lot of colors), look for the Bengals to try and isolate him with the veteran and beat him with speed and quickness. Dalton missed Green on a deep ball last week in single coverage. Since AJ is a mismatch made in heaven, it's imperative Red connects when he's got a step. Explosive plays do not seem abundant within this offense and Gruden knows he must set up the defense with his play-calling script and pick his spots wisely. Converting on these limited opportunities is crucial to getting seven rather than three points, and if the defense is flimsy after all, the Bengals can't live with field goals alone.

So,....the defense.

This year was built on defense, but it wasn't there in Baltimore. The secondary is slow, there's no getting around it. Manny Lawson in pass coverage spells first downs all day. Now the best cover linebacker on the team is out with a busted knee, setting the stage for Vontaze Burfict to make a difference. Personally, I like the move. The man is an instinctual player who overdoes it in both good and bad ways. He smells a little bit like Odell Thurman and I like the crazy look in his eye. If nobody else wants to make a play, why not give him a shot?

I do worry about Burfict in coverage, especially with misdirections and play-action stuff, but I'm anxious to see him get after Trent Richardson in the run game. Since the Browns employ an oddly-aged rookie quarterback who appeared bewildered with the pro game last week, I would send Burfict and just about everybody else at Brandon Weeden. With the return of Carlos Dunlap, the pass rush must make a difference in this game. I do think Weeden will look a bit more capable of quarterbacking this week, but more mistakes are to be had with this Chris Weinke-clone. Not putting pressure on a rookie quarterback never makes sense and the same holds true for this Sunday.

If Richardson has a big day, which I suspect that he might, banking on Weeden to blow it becomes even more important. Richardson has the stuff of greatness in him. Philly did a nice job, but Cleveland's run-blocking was not working. The key for the Bengals is allowing decent runs without giving up the big ones. If Weeden is put in 3rd-and-three situations, the Bengals defense will come away happy, but giving up the explosive runs will make leads more tenuous than necessary. So if Mike Zimmer is to blitz heavily and still rely on limited running room, tackling—or at least slowing down—the ball carrier is an absolute must. Even though they're slow, the Bengals secondary can tackle, and a coordinator like Zim should be able to work with that.

This should be easy but it won't be. Everything goes wrong in football. Both teams have a lot of figuring out to do—a lot of introspection that needs to happen—but in the end, it's the Bengals who know who they are. Take limited big shots, but convert them when you do. Get after Weeden but tackle Richardson. Follow that prescription, and you'll feel better in no time.

Bengals 23, Browns 12

Mojokong—safe at home!

Week 1 Preview: Mash the Stache

The stage that the NFL has built for the Bengal opener is made of fire.  The schedule makers knew Cincinnati couldn’t beat a good team last year, and rather than easing them into the season, throwing them a few cupcakes before testing the playoff-caliber waters, they chose an intra-divisional matchup against the Super Bowl-contending Ravens, on Monday Night Football, in the snow.  Okay, not really snow, but you get the idea.  “Let’s just get this outta the way,” the schedule wizards told each other, laughing as they penciled in Cincinnati at Baltimore.

The question remains if Cincinnati is finally ready to compete with the league’s elite. Many media outsiders have lauded the Bengals with praise for quietly building a contender of their own by retaining a crack-team of top-notch coaching and discovering and polishing the ruby-studded Andy Dalton at quarterback.  These writers and pundits also consider Mike Zimmer’s defense to be fortified with proven talent, pointing to strong showings in 2009 and again in ’11.  And while all these kind words are nice, if the Bengals are unable to step it up against other playoff teams, it’s all just talk.

This inferno is for real.  The Ravens remain as solid as an old oak tree, meticulously crafted by the mind and cunning eyes of their venerable general manager, Ozzie Newsome.  Some men in the NFL simply know what it takes to win and are given the freedom and resources to make it happen.  Many things in Baltimore change from year to year, but as long as Newsome rests in his office, peering down onto a field that regularly produces playoff victories, the team’s success rolls along undeterred.

The Ravens have nothing left to prove.  Their quarterback silenced critics last year for playing well enough to put his team into the Super Bowl.  A dropped touchdown pass by Lee Evans kept that from happening, but Joe Flacco did his part.  The age of their defensive stars is questioned every year, but since their production never falters, these questions are no longer worth asking.  This team is lock-solid, built Tonka tough from the ground up.  If the Bengals are to rock the divisional boat this early in 2012, they cannot enter this game with a boy’s mentality.  There are fierce, grown men standing on that other sideline, dressed in the colors of a bruise and eager to cave in skulls.  As a whole, they are well armored, but not completely impenetrable.  Even the Death Star had a weak spot.

For all the historical hoopla that has traditionally surrounded the Ravens’ defense, it’s the offense that is now the more dominant side of the ball.  Loaded with weapons, and armed with an aforementioned quality QB, coordinator Cam Cameron has molded this group into a versatile threat.  If the Bengals are going to slow Flacco’s flock of flaming flamingos, they’re going to have to find a way to generate a pass rush and get to that mustache before he has time to react.

With Carlos Dunlap expected to sit out, Zimmer will have to get creative in order to disrupt the passing attack, and if the front four can’t turn up the heat on their own, blitzing linebackers may be the answer.  Zim did quite a bit of this during the preseason—as far as preseasons go—so it shouldn’t come as an alien concept to his players if it’s the route he chooses.  Manny Lawson was once hailed as a speedy edge-rusher coming out of college, and there was talk by the coaching staff this offseason that they had planned on using him more in this way, but does he still have the tools to do it well?  Rey Maualuga has shown the ability to break through the line on middle-linebacker blitzes but his problem is over pursuit.  All too often, QBs easily evade his attempt; often times improvising their way to a big play.  Despite their setbacks, however, pressure needs to come for somewhere, lest the speed-demon wide receiver Torrey Smith get time to run behind the coverage and burn the Bengals for deep completions. The Bengals secondary is by no means the fastest—if not one of the slowest—and if Flacco and Smith have time, they will try and capitalize on the speed deficiency.

The problem with blitzing the Ravens, though, is that they have a multitude of short-yardage threats.  Anquan Boldin is big and strong and has no reservations going across the middle.  He prides himself on being a terrific possession receiver and is the perfect complement to a burner like Smith.  The two-headed tight end dragon, Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson, are no longer young and untested, and Flacco has shown comfort in throwing to each of them.  And then there is the mighty midget Ray Rice.

Rice is a five-foot dynamo whose body appears to consist of a single, well-defined muscle.  On the ground you can keep him in a bottle for three and a half quarters, but all it takes is one play, one seam, and he can break the game wide open.  The Bengals suffered mightily from Rice’s explosiveness in Week 17 last year, and gap discipline is paramount to keep it from happening again.  As a runner, he is extremely difficult to prepare for, but the real problem is that he is also an excellent dump-off man in the passing game.

If the Bengals do decide to blitz, they run the risk of leaving these four targets open which could nickel-and-dime Cincinnati to death when it’s all over.  If Torrey Smith were the only real threat on the team, they would be easy to defend, but with such a strong core of possession receivers, and a lack of perceivable pass rush by the Bengals d-line, they seem damn near impossible to game plan.

If there is a weak link in the Ravens offense, it’s the offensive line.  While not a slouch unit by any means, there are some concerns.  Pro-Bowler Ben Grubbs ditched Baltimore for New Orleans in the offseason, replacing him with the aged and familiar Bobbie Williams.  I haven’t been on Big Bobbie’s bandwagon the last few years, feeling he had gotten by on his reputation more than his play.  I feel he is a huge downgrade in the Ravens pass-protection and I would look to rush through his gap the most if I were Zimmer.  Williams now finds himself on a line with two other ancient grizzly bears in Matt Birk and Bryant McKinnie.  Collectively the trio is 103 years old, and is as ugly as they come.  I think it’s a fact that these men have lost a step and can potentially be worn down throughout a game.

So with a less-than-stellar line, a horse stable of intermediate targets and a speed blazer on the outside, the only way to attack this team is with heavy blitzing from the second and third tiers and to keep Flacco on his backo.

The Ravens defense is missing its standard stardom.  Gone are Terrell Suggs, Jarret Johnson, Cory Redding and Tom Zbikowski. The players replacing them are fine fill-ins but it feels as if a few of the sharper teeth this defense once possessed have been pulled right out of their sockets. 

The problem for Cincinnati is that its offense hasn’t done much to improve that side’s firepower.  It’s possible that offensive coordinator Jay Gruden and his intelligent west-coast style scheme will further develop its young players in his second year and that his mastery of the offense will overcome the unit’s lack of playmakers and talent, but I’m still not sure it will be enough.  We Bengal fans know the cast of characters, but outside of A.J. Green, Andrew Hawkins and Jermaine Gresham, we don’t really know what these guys bring to the table.  Also, with a patched-together offensive line made up of rookies, backups and scrap-heap finds, how comfortable will Dalton be in the pocket when he drops back to pass?  There are a few offensive players I really like, but the group as a whole leaves me feeling underwhelmed and I fear scoring enough points will be a year-long issue.

I am a proponent of short-yardage passes, mixed in with draws, reverses and shovel passes.  I think the current core of skill players fit best in a ball-control, pass-heavy scheme that emphasizes yards-after-catch opportunities.  I think the Bengals will hold the ball for as long as they can and keep the Ravens offense off of the field.  I see them happy winning with field goals and with the time-of-possession battle.  I know that Marvin Lewis hates turnovers and will play it safe in a close game nearly every time. In fact, that could be the best single word to fully capture the Bengals top priority on offense: safe.

With Bernard Scott already ruled out for Monday, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Brian Leonard will see increased workloads, but I think the Bengals would like to run the ball less than what they used to do with Cedric Benson anyway, and both backs are good receivers.  I see Dalton throwing for more than 35 attempts but coming away a modest yardage total.

The climb seems too steep on paper for the Bengals in this one.  There are too many wrinkles to iron out, too many edges to sharpen.  Unfortunately, getting better takes time and two and a half days just isn’t enough of it to get this ship afloat by Monday night.

Ravens 24, Bengals 13

Mojokong—loves football.