Thursday, November 29, 2012

Week 13 Preview: Traveling Tips


This week the Bengals travel to the football oasis of San Diego in December. There they will see palm trees, beaches and incredible women, but like Odysseus tied to the mast, they must do whatever it takes to stay the course.

The historical trends aren't encouraging when Cincinnati heads to the Pacific timezone. We fans can downplay those kinds of stats all we want, but the Vegas guys take them seriously for good reason. The weekly routine is different—Marvin Lewis flies his team out there on Friday—and teams find comfort in their routine. Any disruption from the norm can have larger negative consequences, especially for a team on a roll like the Bengals. They were able to overcome the West-Coast blues last year in Seattle, and clearly it can be done again, but it's just one more obstacle to overcome.

Last time they were at The Murph, Chris Henry had just died. The Bengals came up short on a valiant effort against a then high-powered Chargers offense. Later, the Jets would run roughshod over both teams, knocking each from the playoffs. It was a bummer all around.

These are much happier times. Every Bengal is playing well right now. Since the bye week, a switch was flipped and the production is cranking along at season high levels. For the first time in the Andy Dalton era, they feel like a playoff team. They are confident, healthy and extremely dangerous all of a sudden. A team that catches fire like this in December has proven to be a fearsome contender in January and beyond. It's exciting for now, but are they really ready to take that next step? Skepticism abounds.

Despite the pessimistic view of a larger, historical context surrounding the Bengals franchise, there are plenty of good football reasons why Cincinnati should win this week.

The Chargers offense is in a major rut. Their receivers struggle mightily getting open and most meaningful third-down conversions or touchdown passes require perfect throws coupled with spectacular catches. Nothing comes easy to this group. Their most dangerous play is probably a screen pass and they often kill their own drives with dumb penalties. The biggest problem facing San Diego this week, though, is their weak pass protection.

The Bengals front four is high-ranking. They stay in the face of pocket passers and knock them to the ground repeatedly. It's made a once lambasted secondary of slow has-beens into a polished group of savvy veterans. Even the linebackers have stepped it up. All the collective success, though, goes to the pass rushing abilities of the defensive line. It's allowed every other defender to do their jobs better. If the Chargers can't keep Philip Rivers upright in the pocket, then they will have to rely on screens and dump-offs to score touchdowns. Good luck with that.

They do work the sidelines pretty well on out routes and back-shoulder comeback routes, and their receivers are larger prototypes, so don't be surprised to see the taller Dre Kirkpatrick used more this week. He and Terence Newman are both bigger corners who tackle well and can match up well in man coverage against this group, but none of that will matter if Rivers is getting hit every time he drops back.

The San Diego defense is a different story, however. They play the run nicely by staying in their gaps and keeping the ball carrier from getting to the outside. The Bengals finally have their ground game up and running thanks to the stability of the offensive line, but against the Chargers, they may not have the success they've enjoyed the previous two weeks.

On passing downs, San Diego plays man on the outside with their corners, they drop the safeties deep and they zone off the middle with linebackers and nickels. They allow short passes underneath and try to make open-field tackles to prevent first downs. They did a very good job of doing just that last week against the Ravens for about 58 game minutes. Then they allowed Ray Rice to convert on 4th-and-29 on a dump off pass that set up the tying field goal. Charger fans will always be a scarred from that play.

The Bengals should be able to pressure the safeties in two-deep coverage with A.J. Green. If one of the safeties shades to his side, it could leave the middle open deep for someone else like Jermaine Gresham or Andrew Hawkins, and if they don't cheat to A.J.'s side, they're nuts. On the other side, Marvin Jones may finally have the chance to go deep on a somewhat slowish secondary. The Bengals clearly want to get him into matchups where he can win deep. They like his straight-line speed and the team could really excel with another deep threat opposite of Green. That leaves Mohamed Sanu as the other viable option; a man who has flourished in his expanded role since the bye week. Sanu looks to be a terrific possession receiver that becomes extremely valuable in the red-zone. His versatility and ability to take handoffs and even throw the ball makes him a wildcard player that crafty offensive coordinators can have a lot of fun with. Jay Gruden has unveiled Sanu in a variety of ways already this season and there should be more to come. Others can dismiss this receiving corps as random and unproven, but when they are playing to their potential like they have of late, they are as effective as any other group in the league.

This marks the fourth week in row where the Bengals opposition is coming off of a loss, and like last week with Oakland, there are questions about the psyche of the Chargers. Norv Turner sits in a boiling witches cauldron of hot water and could be fired at any minute, really. The scene in San Diego has soured over the years and the whole Turner, Rivers, Gates thing feels old and stale. The fans have given up on the team and it seems like only a matter of time before the team gives up on its coach. If the Bengals get an early lead, it may be too much for the Chargers to emotionally deal with and they might just pack it in for the season. Playing for a lame-duck coach can't be a good time for the players and eventually they will begin to ask themselves what the point is. It's a bad scene in San Diego, despite all of it's natural beauty and climate there.

Ultimately, I think the Bengals overcome the jet-lag and all the exotic temptations. I see them handling business over a team that is crumbling at the end of a coaching era. I don't think it will be a blowout, but it won't feel all that close either. The Bengals will continue to win the turnover battle which will keep the spread manageable for Cincinnati throughout. This is team in full momentum, steam-rolling along. A fourth consecutive win would speak volumes to me. Perhaps they're ready even if no one else is. We shall see.

Bengals 24, Chargers 16


Mojokng—with beeswax in my ears.

Friday, November 23, 2012

Week 12 Preview: Pride On The Line


The idea of quitting is an interesting one. Usually the act is pretty stark—either you quit or you didn't. We all quit something: little league, smoking, reading circles, the Bengals. Carson Palmer quit on the Bengals but not on football, so did he really quit at all? No one cares anymore, except for this week.

Even then, no one cares enough for a sellout or much national media coverage. The Bengal fan remains a kind of mystery to me. How do you not want to go to this game and see it unfold before your very eyes? There's no chance of rain, temperatures in the low 40s and the most notorious turncoat in franchise history makes his first trip back to Queen City. I circled this game on the schedule so vigorously that I poked a hole through it with my pencil. I hear you about the cost of an NFL ticket, but sometimes you have to remind yourself about only living once and collecting memories for later on, I think. Live football in meaningful games is a different level of sensory perception; one that cannot truly be captured on television. My point is not to guilt-trip anyone into selling out the stadium—I'm well versed in the arguments against ownership—I just want to know what game is big enough for Bengal fans to sell it out? Not Steelers fans nor Payton Manning fans nor Cowboys fans, but dare I say, The Jungle, a dying moniker for our fan base. I can't disguise my mild disappointment in the lack of enthusiasm for such this event. Those fans downplaying it as no big deal are not reveling in football enough. The drama is rich, enjoy it while you can.

Of course the players and coaches say they aren't making a big deal of it, and that's to be expected, but I don't think it's true. Even to the player who never played with Carson Palmer, they know what happened and how he left, and even they should want to show him that he quit on the wrong team. There's a lot of proving to be done on Sunday. A lot of pride at stake. When the Bengals take the field against Palmer, they are playing more for us than for Mike Brown. We are eager to beat our chest and yell our throats horse in victory. One giant “I told you so, motherfucker!” A visceral instinct to lash out against a person we harbored such high hopes for.

I think that's why Bengal fans will boo him. Not because they are simple hominids who are eager to hate, but because we all really believed in Carson Palmer and he walked away an ultimate failure. The disappointment is too great not to succumb to its ugliness. In that same spirit, though, a win would allow the Bengal fan to feel vindicated and ease up hating him so much. It would allow for acceptable closure on the matter and everyone can move on amicably.

Yet with all the stored up venom to be undoubtedly spewed in his direction, he too has reason to play at his best. This kind of revenge is a two-way street and if he pulls it off, he could ride off into the western sunset with a smirk on his face and a sack full of stolen Cincinnati pride. It's a chance for him to stand up for himself and show that he isn't a chump after all. A chance to remind us of what we're missing.

If the stage wasn't set enough, enter Hue Jackson, the seemingly double-agent for the Bengals, who orchestrated the trade for Palmer, gave up some prime Raider draft picks, and took a job with the Bengals the next year—the name Bob Bedinghaus comes to mind. Hue knows the Raiders like Palmer knows the Bengals—probably more so—and his input in the coaches room this week will be more valuable than usual.

There are many things we know about the playing ability of Carson Palmer without being an insider. We know he likes to throw it deep. The deep ball is a siren that lures him into trying it more often than he should. It was a major problem in his last year in Cincinnati and it still crops up often in Raider games. Denarious Moore and Darius Heyward-Bey are very fast, but neither are very reliable in both receiving and staying healthy. Nonetheless, CP3 will look for them streaking downfield. Safeties must play a true center field on Sunday and show the range necessary to stick with the burners on deep patterns.

We also know that while Carson can throw far, he doesn't throw particularly fast. I still see him throw a lot of incompletions on out patterns to the sideline simply because the ball takes too long to get there. Since 2010, Palmer has thrown 47 interceptions in 36 games and a lot of that is because he defensive backs get good breaks on Palmer's slow ball, While the Bengals corners aren't speed blazers, they do play with excellent technique and jump routes well, particularly Terence Newman. Look for the veterans to be chancy against Palmer and bait him into a pick or two.

The other thing we know about the California Golden Boy is that he panics easily under pressure. His maneuverability has become extremely limited over the years and he needs a good pocket to succeed. The Bengals pass rush is built to sack pocket passers. The scramblers and the improvisors tend to give this structured defense problems, but go against them with a standard drop back and throw and your quarterback will be hurried. The Raiders offensive line is not that impressive while the Bengals defensive line appears rejuvenated over the last two wins. Unlike the more mobile quarterbacks, if Palmer can't get comfortable in the pocket, he has no chance.

The Raiders best player is their fullback who was once a receiver and is now their starting tailback. His name is Marcel Reese and he has an impressive skill set. His ability to run routes and catch may be his best attribute, but he has shown himself to be an effective runner when taking hand offs and is good in the open field on screens and such too. I became a big fan of his last season before the Jason Campbell injury when he became a terrific compliment to Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. Then Palmer wisely warmed up to him and now Reese is the focal point of their offense. There's no one way to stop a player like that; you just have to keep a person on him at all times. When he goes out for passes, it will probably be up to the linebackers to cover him since the safety help will likely focus more on the speed receivers on the outside. That means the Raiders have an advantage on third-and-short situations and it will be up to the Bengals defense to win on first and second downs to avoid those kind of scenarios.

The other man to watch within the Raiders offense is Brett Myers. Carson throws to this guy a lot and he seems like a fairly trustworthy safety valve, but he has dropped touchdowns in consecutive weeks. Between Myers and Reese, Mike Zimmer may have to use a nickel back to mark one of these bigger guys. If that's the case, open-field tackling becomes paramount for the secondary.

As for the Raiders defense, it's still about their front four. They are oversized guys who get a good push on the line of scrimmage, though Drew Breese showed them last week how good footwork in the pocket can lead to touchdowns. Andrew Whitworth is having an off year. He isn't playing all that poorly, but he's not currently one of the best at his position. The interior linemen seem to have stabilized to some degree thanks to the health of center Trevor Robinson. Since he became a steady starter, practicing every day with the number ones, the protection has become stronger, and Dalton appears way more comfortable than he did earlier in the year. Those inside guys will be challenged by Pro-Bowlers Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly, but those guys are getting older and don't have quite the bite they used to. With a terrible defensive backfield, giving Dalton time will allow him to score enough points to win.

It was lovely to see BenJarvus Green-Ellis eclipse the century mark for the first time in stripes, but the whole rushing offense needs to prove that wasn't an aberration by doing it some more. Cedric Peerman getting more carries is showing positive results, but any real improvement that might exist in the running game is, once again, the stability of the offensive line.

The Raiders aren't terrible, but they are close. The Bengals aren't a good team, but they are close. If Cincinnati strikes early again, Oakland may mentally pack it in for the season. Blitzing Palmer, knocking him down and sending the brutal crowd into a frenzy, should result in turnovers, which should result in points and should result in a win. With so much pride and drama on the line, I can't see the Bengals letting us down or quitting on us. I think they're strong on Sunday and really stick it the former No. 9.

Bengals 30, Raiders 17


Mojokong—big enough for me.

Friday, November 16, 2012

Week 11 Preview: Separate Directions

The Bengals face a Chiefs team limping on its last leg. After coming up short in a valiant Monday Night effort, and already feeling downtrodden due to a 1-8 record, it seems logical to assume that Kansas City has checked out on the season.

Last week in Pittsburgh, they found themselves in an ugly game. The Chiefs became the first team I can think of that actually knocked Ben Roethlisberger from the game, and then proceeded to blitz the crap out of backup Byron Leftwich but to no avail. They bumbled along in the rain with terrible penalties and a horrific passing game, but still managed to force overtime. They received the kickoff and then promptly threw a pick that sealed any chance to stick it to their former coach, Todd Haley.
On the flipside, the Bengals are coming off of their most complete game of the past three seasons. The beat down of the New York Giants earns a rousing applause. The secondary, labeled as too slow to guard NFL receivers, completely eliminated any threat of a Giants passing attack, blanketing the New York stars on offense. The linebackers flew around and made tackles and the defensive line put twenty hits on Eli Manning. Twenty! The offensive line blocked like the Great Wall of China, Andy Dalton was accurate, and the receivers showed muscle as they pulled in tough grabs in the end zone. In a word, it was perfect.
How can the Chiefs compete with all their strength and attention this week? They must be deflated in nearly every way after a late, cold, rainy, and oh-so-close loss last week. The 2012 campaign has been an epic bust. Prior to the season, I thought Kansas City would be strong after getting back so many crucial pieces that were injured the season before. Turns out their depth is nowhere near stable enough to win and the coaching staff has been flummoxed by an abundance of turnovers, penalties and bad luck. There are still seven games on the schedule, but these matches are merely formalities at this point. The Chiefs will win at least one more game before the end, but I feel they are too mortally wounded right now to come out on top. The players and coaches are probably wondering what the point of football is these days and who can blame them?
That being said, the Bengals have laid down against lame ducks like this before. The Cleveland loss in Week 5 stills stings like rubbing alcohol on an open sore, and hopefully the acute pain of that game still resonates in the psyche of the Bengal players. The euphoria they earned with the slaughtering of the Giants could be swiftly blown away in the breeze of a letdown in Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday. They must come out with energy and urgency to keep the torch of the season aflame.
If the Bengals defense can repeat even a fraction of their output from a week ago, they will win with relative ease. Matt Cassell has been deplorable this year. I don’t know if it is his backup-quarterback colors shining through or if he’s reached a premature end to his effectiveness in this league, but either way, he looks really bad. The Chiefs will desperately attempt to avoid throwing the ball. For all the negativity swirling around the Chiefs, they can sometimes run the ball well. Their line has been depressingly bad pass-protecting—free agent tackle Eric Winston has made more enemies than friends in KC due to his lackluster pass blocking—but they aren't bad run blockers. They like running to the right behind Winston and guard Jon Asamoah, but Asamoah is out this week and the Bengals defense is good at moving laterally and stopping the stretch handoff and other long-developing running plays.Jamaal Charles is shifty, fast, and elusive, but because he goes outside on most of his runs, I find him less of a threat against this defense. Instead, I find Peyton Hillis to be a larger threat, both literally and figuratively. The Bengals have struggled against straight-ahead runners this season. Jonathan Dwyer and Montario Hardesty both tore off big gains against Cincinnati, running straight ahead. Sometimes KC gets too cute with Hillis and asks him to make the same kind of runs that Charles excels at, but from what I've seen, these attempts result in very limited success. The Bengals must be stout up the middle, andwith a healthy Pat Sims in the fold, that seems to be a doable mission.
When the Chiefs are forced to pass, I expect them to be mauled by the Cincinnati front four. I've seen a couple of different men line up at left guard for the Chiefs and each one seems to pass protect poorly. If these guards play at their standard back-up level, Geno Atkins will feast upon their unfortunate souls. And if that isn't bad enough for KC,Carlos Dunlap appears to have awoken from his midseason slumber. The pass rush continues to be the most feared facet of this entire Bengals roster and they should really hit their stride against such a maligned group.
Offensively, I wouldn't expect a point explosion. There are still some quality defenders on the Chiefs roster, namely Tamba Hali. Derrick Johnson, Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry are also notable players, but Hali hustles his ass off and is truly a force to be reckoned with. The Bengals offensive line was sterling last week against what many consider one of the best pass-rushing groups in the league, but they cannot let up against Hali and his mates. We all saw what happen to Big Ben, and Andy Dalton surely is not as tough as Roethlisberger.
If they do keep Red clean, though, there’s no reason they shouldn't enjoy at least a moderate amount of success in the air. The Chiefs have been lousy containing opposing tight ends this year and Jermaine Gresham continues to progress in his career, albeit slowly. It’s the other tight end, Orson Charles, though, that I expect to garner some postgame praise for his play. Charles has quietly put together a pleasant rookie season, displaying the ability to be a viable pass catcher and he and Gresham should be able to find an advantage in double tight-end formations on Sunday. No one can contain A.J. Green, so there isn't concern there, and Mohamed Sanu appears increasingly comfortable in his role on the offense. In general, the Bengals passing attack is really their only real way to score points for this team, so I would expect more of the same, but it is vital that Dalton is protected well to really put up some larger point totals. The running game is still a mystery and there is no sign of improvement with the current personnel, so don’t expect much help on the ground this week. Knowing how Marvin Lewis goes about his business, however, against such a turnover-prone team like the Chiefs, look for the Bengals to play ultra-safely on offense and wait for KC to throw a pick or put the ball on the ground.
As it has been proven countless times, nothing ever makes total sense in this league, and nothing is ever that easy, so no one should go into this one feeling certain about anything. Still, this is a bad and worn out Chiefs team with nothing left to play for other than pride and money. The organization can say it isn't giving up, but it’s run by humans who are subject to emotion. They will come out flat and be physically handled by a cautious and focused Bengals team. I don’t expect many points, but I expect a win.

Bengals 17, Chiefs 6

Mojokong—climbing the rungs of the football ladder.

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Week 10 Preview: Last Chance


At eight games into the season, things haven't gone according to plan for the Cincinnati Bengals. This last quarter was a nightmare, blowing two games against rookie quarterbacks and then two more against hall-of-famers. Not only can they not beat the playoff teams, they can't beat anyone. The Giants game marks the beginning of a new quarter, and the Bengals must start well, or that's it.

Epic Bengal collapses are nothing new to this town, and they seem to occur every other year. In 2008, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Carson Palmer teamed up to lose the first eight games right out of the gate. Then in 2010, Batman & Robin suffered through a 10-game string of losses, crushing the mega-hyped expectations of that year. Now the same Grim Reaper lurks around Paul Brown Stadium again, threatening to consume the season and all of its joys. The season is in a nosedive and looks to be out of control, but for silly reasons, I think they get it together this week.

The Super Bowl Champions are a bad-ass team. They can score a lot of points, having already scored 41 twice this year, or they can wrestle away road wins like the thumping they put on the 49ers in Candlestick. They have a renown pass rush and a no-nonsense coaching staff. They are better than the Bengals in nearly every way.

Yet maybe the Bengals are close to getting back on track offensively. The center position continues to be a problem with Jeff Faine and Trevor Robinson frequently subbing in and out due to either bad play or bad hamstrings, or both? Now there's talk about Clint Boling at center if necessary; the whole position is a quagmire right now. Kyle Cook's injury has proven to be somewhat catastrophic to this team, thrusting either too old or too young replacements into the mix. The whole thing reminds me of the Eric Ghiaciuc fiasco in 2006. If the Bengals can clean up the position by having one guy practice at center all week and make it through an entire game, things will improve.

The offensive line wasn't great against Denver, giving up five sacks and allowing Andy Dalton to panic more than he needed to. The quarterback has not felt comfortable in the pocket for the majority of the season. Individually, outside of the center position, the linemen have been graded respectably, but collectively they have rarely felt dominant, particularly when run-blocking. The line is a symbiotic entity that must work as a group and it's just not happening right now. Too many sacks and too many penalties last week drew attention to a group who prefers to work anonymously. I think the line will improve as the center spot solidifies.

At the midway point, even Andy Dalton has come up short. The organization relied on his incredible intangibles, namely pocket presence, leadership and general unflappability, yet the young ginger has faltered in his development in these areas, appearing to have regressed more than improve. While in the pocket, there is a trust issue somewhere in his thought processes. He either doesn't trust himself to make the throws, doesn't trust his receivers and their ability to get open, or doesn't trust his line to protect him. This trust breakdown, whatever it is, has led Dalton to appear, well, flappable. Once the line gets better, Dalton will progress as well. Dalton is better-than-average but it takes the right blend of factors to put him in the best situation.

A major part of that blend is a better running game. The Bengals rank in the bottom five in nearly every important rushing statistic. This offense is not one built for 50 passes a game. It simply doesn't have the firepower to compete that way. When Trevelle Wharton and Cook both went down in the preseason, coupled with letting Bobby Williams go in free agency and drafting Kevin Zeitler as his replacement, the front office went with younger, lighter and more athletic linemen who can pull and get out in space. Yet BenJarvus Green-Ellis has shown himself to be more of a power back, and the two styles have not coincided nicely. Now with Bernard Scott out too, there aren't many other players on the roster who can get out in space and let those sprightly young linemen roam free to find linebackers to block. Instead, they are asked to maul and shove fat defenders backward. It hasn't happened with much success at all. The combinations of injuries have hit the Bengals where it hurts in the run game. In order to find some success there, the coaching staff must try to use Green-Ellis and there other personnel in ways that have yet to be tried. At this point of the season, trends are obvious and real and if the Bengals are too slow to adjust—as has historically been the case under Marvin Lewis-led teams—then it will be too late and they will begin to build early for 2013. This week and beyond, I think we see some new wrinkles in the running game that hopefully include an expanded role to the other largely unused backs in Cedric Peerman and Boom Herron. Got to try something new and the time is now. Bold prediction: Bengals rush for 125 yards as a team this week, which is a big deal for a struggling unit.

Defensively, the rest of the year will be an uphill climb against the pass.

Things have really fallen apart within the linebacking group. I heard Dave Lapham say how important Thomas Howard was to this squad and I think he's dead on. Since he went down, coaches and fans alike have turned up the pressure on Rey Maualuga and Manny Lawson. Both have underperformed in their larger roles, especially Lawson who seems to have been removed from the scheme almost altogether. Only Vontaze Burfict has played on a level that I would describe as starter material, and even Emmanuel Lemur immediately elevated the position once activated from the practice squad. There is a lot of fixing to do with the linebackers and the position should be paramount on the team's priority list this offseason, but for now, they're going to have to rely on the younger guys to continue to make a difference because the veteran starters aren't getting it done.

The secondary continues to be filleted. I still think loading up on aged defensive backs was an organizational mistake this off-season. What was the plan? Perhaps they expected the pass-rush to be so dominant that they wouldn't need a bunch of fast guys back there. They wanted slow, tackling corners and that's what they got. Nothing can be done about it now. They have to wade through it. They aren't a good blitzing team. After all the preseason linebacker blitzes we saw, I thought they would be but that's not been the case. Because of that, they go zone a lot, and they're not so good at that either. The phrase I hear myself say while watching the Bengals play pass defense is “slow to react”. Changing directions, moving vertically, the swiveling of the hips, none of it is done quickly. I don't foresee a huge improvement in the second half of the season in pass coverage so the best we can realistically hope for is limiting other offenses to field goals.

The Giants have a real blazer on their team in Victor Cruz. The guy is ultra-explosive and is the perfect person to kill an old secondary like the Bengals. Even if they do somehow slow down Cruz, his counterpart, Hakim Nicks, can do the same thing. Nicks has Terrell Owens-like talents and could be a perennial monster, but he is always nagged by injury. Nonetheless, he's strapping them up tomorrow and that is threat enough for me. Like almost every week, I say the Bengals drop back into zone, allow passes underneath and come up to make the tackle. If that seems okay in the beginning and NYG are only scoring field goals, they then can ramp up the blitzes in the second half, but Cincinnati has to limit the early big plays. If Eli Manning and his mates storm down the field for a pair of quick touchdowns, it could easily zap all the enthusiasm and optimism that may still exist in Paul Brown Stadium.

The Bengals must make this an ugly, physical game. If it's a shootout, they lose.

The center position is the key. Improve that, and you improve your line. Improve your line and you improve Andy Dalton. Improve Andy Dalton and you improve the running game. Improve the running game and you get sustained drives that eat clock and rests old defenders. Rest old defenders and you limit enormous passing totals. Limit enormous passing totals and you keep the score within reason. Therefore, it's all up to Trevor Robinson this week and this season. Good luck, Trevor.

Bengals 20, Giants 19


Mojokong—for silly reasons.

Friday, November 2, 2012

Week 9 Preview: Show Me Your Mean Face


We learned this week that even Marvin Lewis can surprise us A man once seen as predictable as the sunrise, famously went off script this week and said he wants Andy Dalton to be more of a dick. A lot has been made of it, and I wonder if he now regrets saying it, but it remains a mind-blowing statement only because of its source.

In the past decade, Marvin has firmly demonstrated a rather Buddhist football philosophy that emphasizes balance and trust in ones self and ones teammates. They are never the worst team, never the best team, and have lingered in the middle for the duration of his tenure. He and his team stay the middle path.

Early in the Lewis administration, he was dealt handfuls of problem children who weren't mentally ready to be great despite their tremendous potential. Then his team became complacent and vanilla made up of boring football robots, primarily Carson Palmer. Now he says he wants a mean streak in his new robots. Villainous robots? Who is this man? I feel like I don't know even know him anymore.

Fact is, I never did and neither did you.

I haven't talked with Marvin Lewis outside of some standard questions at the 2009 Scouting Combine. Like everybody else on the outside, I just go by what I hear him say and closely follow his experiment. From that, we form a sketch of his personality and assume his team will reflect the same traits and characteristics, and for the most part, it has. Whether it's a fair assessment of Marvin's personality or not is immaterial. It's what we got to work with, so we go with it.

Now, though, he sees his team as too nice—has said so a few times already this season—yet is there anyone else to blame other than himself? He can say that Andy Dalton is a softy on his teammates, and it may just be Red's personality, but like anyone, Dalton can be toughened up. While Marvin's program is professional and on-par with most NFL standards, it is rarely if ever characterized as grueling or hard-nosed or intense. Instead you hear words like quiet, loose and relaxed when the culture of the current Bengals is described. The Marvin Lewis we've seen clapping on the sideline, smiling at everyone, whispering on the podium, is not a tough guy. Now he asks for more than just toughness from his troops, he asks for meanness. Especially from his quarterback and middle linebacker, he says.

I don't think this is a mean team, just like I don't think Marvin is the hard disciplinarian type of coach that can cultivate one. I don't think Dalton will ever get the “aw, shucks” out of him and become a raging maniac like Phillip Rivers, but I do like Marvin's new attempt. 

 Why not? We've seen the Bengals fall into horrific relapses and binge on losses like this before. The negatives compound on top of one another and the losing becomes all-consuming, crushing seasons and careers under its weight. While not quite circling the drain, the Bengals have positioned themselves at least on the rim of the sink itself. Marvin needed a new approach to salvage the season and he chose meanness this time. He even cussed in a press conference. It feels kind of desperate and forced, but I like it.  Funny thing is that it's true.

The Bengals do need to be meaner. They have been a go-through-the-motions team forever it seems. Sometimes the motions they go through work and translate into a quality defensive showing for the season like last year, but over time, a team needs more than just motions. They need some kind of presence to them. They shrink in the spotlight. They panic easily. They get punked by tougher teams. They have a few guys who wanna lay the wood on somebody every play, but by and large, there is simply not enough pushing around going on along Cincinnati's side of the ball. I thought the Andy Dalton comments were interesting, but I thought the mention of Rey Maualuga by position only was more of an indictment.

Rey has been under the microscope this year and has flat out looked bad. The man lining up next to him, Vontaze Burfict, looks far more capable to run this defense than does Maualuga. He loafs, takes awful angles, guesses wrong, is easily blocked and still doesn't wrap up enough. More than anything else, he doesn't want to stick his nose in the action. He's tentative. Perhaps he's worried about getting hurt, but he should ask himself what is more important: keeping a starting job in the NFL and racking up more injury, or fading out as a limited backup and remain healthier later in life. Either answer is a respectable one, but if it's the latter, the Bengals coaching staff needs to make the switch soon rather than watch the production from arguably the defense's most important position continue to decline. The next few weeks will be pivotal for Rey's future with the team. This is one of those defining moments for him.

As for Dalton, Marvin did mention another concern other than his meanness. He said that he wanted Andy, and the rest of his team, to make more unscripted plays. When asked to define an unscripted play, he explained that they were plays where improvisation is needed to make it better than they had planned. Like the meanness, this is a rather vague request, but again he's right. 

 Dalton's pocket presence has dulled since his rookie season. I still think the reason is because he has more responsibilities that include more reads and all this extra thought has led him to panic more often and has resulted in a host of breakdowns. While the offensive creativity that was so abundant earlier in the season has seemingly lulled of late, there is something programmed in the players to only get what the play calls for. That sort of programming can only come from coaching, but now the coaches are saying the players need to do more on their own. Go further than what we've taught you to do, they tell them. Override the shackles we've placed on you. Sprout wings and fly.

The fact that Marvin is talking to reporters about these ethereal elements of his football team tells me that he and the organization are convinced that their game planning is good enough and that he's out of ideas on how to get his team to execute it better. It's like a math equation that isn't producing the right answers or a pot-roast recipe that is still missing something once you've tasted it. The entire team knows that it should be at least one game better than the record states, and if they don't know why they are only 3-4, they are in trouble.

As for this week...

The offensive line has a big task taking on the Broncos. They have not one but two quarterback-sack extraordinaire in Von Miller and Elvis Dumerville. The offensive tackles, Andre Smith and Andrew Whitworth, have to keep these guys at bay if Dalton is going to be at all successful at executing unscripted plays. Also along the Denver defensive front are two burly lumberjack-like defensive tackles. Derrick Wolfe and Justin Bannan don't get a lot of credit but are disruptive, especially the rookie Wolfe. Clint Boling and Kevin Zeitler have been graded well so far this year, but the center spot has had some rough patches. Pass-protection up the middle is almost as important as it is on the outside. Everyone has to hold up well for the Bengals offense to find any comfort and rhythm.  The needless panicking from Dalton must end now.

Also, more of a ground presence would be nice.  A 100-yard rushing day seems more remote than it should, but we say this every week and the results seem sadly the same. Fans and media have turned some attention to Cedric Peerman for an expanded role and increased amount of carries, but the coaching staff appears cautions when mixing him into the game plan. BenJarvus Green-Ellis desperately needs somebody on the Bengals roster to take some of the pressure off of his underwhelming production by showing the defense a change of pace with another back. The Law Firm has never before been used as heavily, and I think at this point we see why. The rushing attack must be more of a committee effort no matter who is on the roster. If we have to see some Boom Herron to get some variety, then that is what needs to happen. Handing the ball of to Sanu is interesting—reminds me of how Minnesota uses Percy Harvin—but I feel the team has to be serious about using their other backs to find any true success in the ground game. Until I see some sustained success when rushing the ball, I'm just going to assume they can't do it and focus on the pass.

Problem is, so do other defenses. Then they focus on A.J. Green. Defenses are going to double and eventually triple-cover Green until other offensive players can prove they're dangerous. The way to defend the Bengals is to drop the secondary back, dare them to run, let them make short catches and come up to tackle them. Shade a safety toward Green all game, leave the other wide out in single coverage, only rush four and watch Cincinnati limit their dimensions until they have only the desperation deep-passing game left. If Mohammed Sanu can come on and become a new viable weapon, great! If not, Armon Binns peaked and flamed out early, Brandon Tate has shown good hands but isn't a true receiver, and Marvin Jones blew a tire before getting to show his stuff against Pittsburgh. There is no one else left. The Bengals were relying on the collection of “other guys” to step up enough to allow the offense to get loose, but they haven't met the professional expectations of an NFL starter. Andrew Hawkins has flashed, but also faded as he deals with the grind of his first full season. Cincy Jungle's Joe Goodberry predicted Sanu taking over for Hawkins at the slot as the season progresses, citing his observation that Hawkins is wearing down. The angle makes sense, and I agree that his role will likely be lessened, but I don't think that Baby Hawk will vanish altogether. Regardless of who it is, one of these guys needs to do more with both scripted and unscripted plays.

On defense, the Bengals face Peyton Manning. The hype is immense right now surrounding Manning and the Broncos. They smashed New Orleans in Mile High, running the ball very well against the league's worst defense. Willis McGahee does well against Cincinnati, so does Peyton. The Bengals defense was gashed by Johnathan Dwyer two weeks ago as he simply ran straight ahead through running lanes (the same way Montario Hardesty did the week before). Denver runs more stretch plays that call for cutback and off-tackle runs, and Cincinnati is usually better at rallying to ball carriers to the outside rather than stop them up the middle, so I expect a lesser rushing total against them this week.

Problem is, defending the play-action off of the stretch play is a long-time Bengals weak spot . The Houston Texans do it masterfully and now the Broncos have the master of all masters running it the same way in Denver. Bengal linebackers are extra vulnerable to this kind of misdirection and if they aren't keen to who has the ball, they will be lit up in a hurry.

I expect Manning to add to the struggle Cincinnati has dealt with on third downs this season. Obviously a strong pass rush annoys any QB, but this is truly a bend-but-don't-break defense Mike Zimmer has to work with. The playmakers, the ones who change games single-handedly, are rare within the Bengals defensive ranks. Only Carlos Dunlap has that kind of prowess and lately it's been subdued to say the least. If Cincinnati can allow field goals rather than touchdowns, they can stay in the game, but big passing totals are coming like it or not. Limit the bleeding, and they might survive.

All in all, I don't love the Bengals chances. Both teams are moving in opposite directions and the best kind of motivation Cincinnati can muster for this weekend is desperation. The road is long and hard from here on out. Letdowns have occurred, mistakes were made. There is much ground to make up and according to the man in charge, the best ways to turn it around is to be meaner and more improvisational. Good luck with that, nice guy.


Broncos 31, Bengals 20


Mojokong—make or break.