This week the Bengals travel to the
football oasis of San Diego in December. There they will see palm
trees, beaches and incredible women, but like Odysseus tied to the
mast, they must do whatever it takes to stay the course.
The historical trends aren't
encouraging when Cincinnati heads to the Pacific timezone. We fans
can downplay those kinds of stats all we want, but the Vegas guys
take them seriously for good reason. The weekly routine is
different—Marvin Lewis flies his team out there on Friday—and
teams find comfort in their routine. Any disruption from the norm
can have larger negative consequences, especially for a team on a
roll like the Bengals. They were able to overcome the West-Coast
blues last year in Seattle, and clearly it can be done again, but
it's just one more obstacle to overcome.
Last time they were at The Murph, Chris
Henry had just died. The Bengals came up short on a valiant effort
against a then high-powered Chargers offense. Later, the Jets would
run roughshod over both teams, knocking each from the playoffs. It
was a bummer all around.
These are much happier times. Every
Bengal is playing well right now. Since the bye week, a switch was
flipped and the production is cranking along at season high levels.
For the first time in the Andy Dalton era, they feel
like a playoff team. They are confident, healthy and extremely
dangerous all of a sudden. A team that catches fire like this in
December has proven to be a fearsome contender in January and beyond.
It's exciting for now, but are they really ready to take that next
step? Skepticism abounds.
Despite
the pessimistic view of a larger, historical context surrounding the
Bengals franchise, there are plenty of good football reasons why
Cincinnati should win this week.
The
Chargers offense is in a major rut. Their receivers struggle
mightily getting open and most meaningful third-down conversions or
touchdown passes require perfect throws coupled with spectacular
catches. Nothing comes easy to this group. Their most dangerous
play is probably a screen pass and they often kill their own drives
with dumb penalties. The biggest problem facing San Diego this week,
though, is their weak pass protection.
The
Bengals front four is high-ranking. They stay in the face of pocket
passers and knock them to the ground repeatedly. It's made a once
lambasted secondary of slow has-beens into a polished group of savvy
veterans. Even the linebackers have stepped it up. All the
collective success, though, goes to the pass rushing abilities of the
defensive line. It's allowed every other defender to do their jobs
better. If the Chargers can't keep Philip Rivers upright in the
pocket, then they will have to rely on screens and dump-offs to score
touchdowns. Good luck with that.
They
do work the sidelines pretty well on out routes and back-shoulder
comeback routes, and their receivers are larger prototypes, so don't
be surprised to see the taller Dre Kirkpatrick used more this week.
He and Terence Newman are both bigger corners who tackle well and can
match up well in man coverage against this group, but none of that
will matter if Rivers is getting hit every time he drops back.
The
San Diego defense is a different story, however. They play the run
nicely by staying in their gaps and keeping the ball carrier from
getting to the outside. The Bengals finally have their ground game
up and running thanks to the stability of the offensive line, but
against the Chargers, they may not have the success they've enjoyed
the previous two weeks.
On
passing downs, San Diego plays man on the outside with their corners,
they drop the safeties deep and they zone off the middle with
linebackers and nickels. They allow short passes underneath and try
to make open-field tackles to prevent first downs. They did a very
good job of doing just that last week against the Ravens for about 58
game minutes. Then they allowed Ray Rice to convert on 4th-and-29 on
a dump off pass that set up the tying field goal. Charger fans will
always be a scarred from that play.
The
Bengals should be able to pressure the safeties in two-deep coverage
with A.J. Green. If one of the safeties shades to his side, it could
leave the middle open deep for someone else like Jermaine Gresham or
Andrew Hawkins, and if they don't cheat to A.J.'s side, they're nuts.
On the other side, Marvin Jones may finally have the chance to go
deep on a somewhat slowish secondary. The Bengals clearly want to
get him into matchups where he can win deep. They like his
straight-line speed and the team could really excel with another deep
threat opposite of Green. That leaves Mohamed Sanu as the other
viable option; a man who has flourished in his expanded role since
the bye week. Sanu looks to be a terrific possession receiver that
becomes extremely valuable in the red-zone. His versatility and
ability to take handoffs and even throw the ball makes him a wildcard
player that crafty offensive coordinators can have a lot of fun with.
Jay Gruden has unveiled Sanu in a variety of ways already this
season and there should be more to come. Others can dismiss this
receiving corps as random and unproven, but when they are playing to
their potential like they have of late, they are as effective as any
other group in the league.
This
marks the fourth week in row where the Bengals opposition is coming
off of a loss, and like last week with Oakland, there are questions
about the psyche of the Chargers. Norv Turner sits in a boiling
witches cauldron of hot water and could be fired at any minute,
really. The scene in San Diego has soured over the years and the
whole Turner, Rivers, Gates thing feels old and stale. The fans have
given up on the team and it seems like only a matter of time before
the team gives up on its coach. If the Bengals get an early lead, it
may be too much for the Chargers to emotionally deal with and they
might just pack it in for the season. Playing for a lame-duck coach
can't be a good time for the players and eventually they will begin
to ask themselves what the point is. It's a bad scene in San Diego,
despite all of it's natural beauty and climate there.
Ultimately,
I think the Bengals overcome the jet-lag and all the exotic
temptations. I see them handling business over a team that is
crumbling at the end of a coaching era. I don't think it will be a
blowout, but it won't feel all that close either. The Bengals will
continue to win the turnover battle which will keep the spread
manageable for Cincinnati throughout. This is team in full momentum,
steam-rolling along. A fourth consecutive win would speak volumes to
me. Perhaps they're ready even if no one else is. We shall see.
Bengals
24, Chargers 16
Mojokng—with
beeswax in my ears.