Week 9 Preview: Logistical Nightmare

It is unwise to discredit schematics. Much effort and coordination goes into making every NFL game possible and a shortened week strains those efforts. Playing a few days earlier in the week may seem like a minor hassle to some, but to NFL people, it makes for a hellish rush.

Outside of the hurried preparation, the Cincinnati Bengals limp into this game with major contributors ailing and badly requiring rest. This game has the feel of a forfeit, despite the tremendous blowout of the week before.

I am not suggesting that the Bengals will simply go through the motions and not try to win the game. Nor am I suggesting the Miami Dolphins are the better team, but it seems like human nature to relax a little bit once a two-game lead on the division is secured.

On the other hand, the Bengals are smoking hot on offense and Andy Dalton has reaffirmed a perceived healthy grasp of Jay Gruden's playbook. Roles have been rigidly defined among the weapons, allowing each player to feel involved and necessary. The pass-protection is out of sight these days. The Dolphins too have their hands full.

This game is such a puzzler to predict because we simply don't know how the fatigue and injury will play a part in the coaches' game-planning. Would they really ease up and give some weary starters less snaps? If that is the case, I would think the Bengals would run the ball more than usual. Probably stuff up the middle. If they go along with business as usual, then there is no need to stop throwing the quick outs to tight ends and looking for the long pass in man coverage. I think after last week, the Dolphins will show more zone coverage and not let those secondary receivers beat them deep. That would allow the underneath stuff and crossing routes. It would also allow for easier running lanes.

While I agree that the Bengals offense is positively humming at the moment, this is the time when the good teams are already adjust their scheme. If they are at their best at this point of the season, we won't like how it ends. It's important that the organization doesn't feel too fat and sassy from scoring so many points last week. The best minds in the game are always ready to morph into the next phase before the competition can adjust; the Bengals have not always demonstrated this kind of ability.

Defensively, the Zim Clan looks like they're giving it their all, but how long can they sustain such a high level of play with so many key members dropping out? I like their depth and they seem mindful of filling positions through the draft, but some kind of fall off has to happen when three or four starters are missing. The good news is that the fearsome front is still relatively in tact, with the werewolf Margus Hunt awaiting in the wings. As the season wears down, the collective endurance will ultimately dictate how successful this defense will be. While it's nice to have youngsters like Hunt, and Burfict and Kirkpatrick on the roster, there is also Terence Newman, Adam Jones andJames Harrison, all with high mileage totals.

I am happy with the team. I think they are finally gaining the confidence they need to be great, but this week feels like the preseason and, despite the modest Miami record, seems like an extremely difficult win. If they are able to do so, I think a lot of credit should go to Marvin Lewis for getting his guys up enough to come home victorious. This game will speak to the toughness of the team. Teach me a lesson, Bengals.

Dolphins 24, Bengals 18

Mojokong-out with the chlorophyll

Week 8 Preview: Boots on the Ground

Ever since Rex Ryan took over for the New York Jets, I've always felt they were as close as a team could come to the AFC North without actually being a member of the esteemed blue-collar class. The ground-and-pound philosophy is in his genes, he can't shake it. He loves being physical on offense and aggressive on defense. He likes his players oversized with an attitude. He likes getting riled up with his team.

Last week he and his troops vanquished their longtime nemesis, the New England Patriots, by playing with a mightier will (and enjoying the fruits of a new rule change). The Patriots have a Mr. Everything quarterback and a mad genius at the helm, but they are not a rough-and-tumble bunch of hombres like the Men in Stripes. The Bengals can play with the biggest of brutes. They can shove around jumbo packages and make opposing quarterbacks feel the turf. If the Jets think they can run it down the throats of the Bengals 50 times and win by playing power football, then they've already lost.

The best part of this matchup for Cincinnati is that it should allow the rottweiler James Harrison to get on the field more than usual. His appearances have been few this season as teams regularly feature three or more receivers which renders Harrison to the sideline, but the Jets aren't afraid and they will feel his bite as a result.

New York does not employ an impressive list of names on offense. Their skill players are a hodge-podge of leftovers that have yet to carve out much of a name for themselves. True, the Bengals lost Leon Hall yet again, but Hall, for as talented as he is, seems always injured and the organization should be used to him dressed in sweatpants instead of shoulder pads. The other defensive backs should be able to reasonably handle the Jets receivers though. Like Marvin Lewis intimated with the media, it's time Dre Kirkpatrick rise up to be the first-rounder his football card says he is.

Like almost every game against Cincinnati, though, the contest will come down to how much time young Geno Smith enjoys in the pocket. The equation is so stupefyingly simple that it's almost embarrassing to outline here on paper: give him time, he will hurt you. Get in his face quickly, he struggles. Matt Stafford launched rockets from the pocket in a hurry last week and had the Bengals secondary scrambling. Even though the Zim Clan racked up some hits on Stafford, not sacking him made the game extremely challenging to win.

The Jets are sure to try the same method. Look for quick-hitters and short passes to counter the dazzling pass rush of the Stripes. If they can avoid passing altogether, they will, but the Jets having a large enough lead to run the ball and bleed the clock seems unlikely. I think the Cincinnati front seven will make life hard on Smith. For all the bouquets tossed the rookies way a week ago, I see his play evening out dramatically and his frustration getting the best of him this time.

On offense, the Bengals would be smart to keep it easy and sensible. If the Jets commit the kind of turnovers I sense them suffering on Sunday, the offense will simply have to protect the ball and win on field goals. Bland analysis, I know, but what the Bengals can't do is be dragged into a sloppy game that they may not make it out it of. Look at it like a football Vietnam War. Don't make the mistakes of the past.

It's tough running on the Ryan renegades. They are as stout as their coach and have gotten back to effectively rushing the passer. If the run falters, which it is likely to do, Dalton must become more caretaker than world-beater.

Fortunately for him, the offensive line is playing it's best under Dalton. Watching Andre Smith develop into one of the best at his position has been refreshing. For a guy that shouldered a world of worry, he has truly become great. Got DVR? Rewatch the Bengals games but only watch Andre Smith on offense and Vontaze Burfict on defense. Both of these guys have shed their negative skins and become pros pros. Burfict is positively terrifying in cleats and made of 100 percent pure linebacker guts. Smith is a 350-pound bulldog who quietly does his job seemingly on every play.

Against the Jets, Goo and his mates take on their toughest challenge yet and have a reputation to maintain. If Dalton is running for his life, and throwing it more than necessary, then the Bengals find themselves in that messy jungle with few ways out, but if they stick to the game plan, run the ball even with minimal success and avoid turnovers, they can manage themselves to a win.

This will not be pretty, nor glamorous, nor classy. The frumpy Jets come into town with only trouble on their minds. They're going to mix it up and try to draw the Bengals into penalties and fights. They will not resort to aerial assaults until they have to and try to make the whole thing into a trench fight, mustard gas and all. Zimmer's men must keep their cool and their objective at hand. Mental toughness makes the playoffs.

Bengals 19, Jets 13

Mojokong—a prose pro.

Week 6 Preview: A Few Minor Explosions

The Bengals have been faced with a drought of points in the last two weeks. The Serengeti has dried up and only the higher species of football teams have adapted to such harsh conditions. Much of the blame for their personal dustbowl stems from turnovers and shaky quarterback play, and it appears there will be no relief in Buffalo.

Like the Bengals, the Bills have a stout defensive front; running the ball won't be as easy as it was against the Pats a week ago. To make matters worse, disgruntled safety Jairus Byrd returns from his injury and his pouting and looks to take out his frustrations against anything orange on Sunday.

When a team is only able to score one touchdown in eight quarters, something is usually wrong with their passing game. When a team has trouble passing, other teams force them to do exactly that. I was pleased with the rushing emphasis last week and I think it was the right way to go, but 13 points won't win the majority of games in the NFL. I know Jay Gruden is chomping at the bit to demonstrate more passing prowess from his offense and, ready or not, this week he must have his men throw it more in Orchard Park.

Pass protection then becomes paramount. Andy Dalton still has not yet developed a healthy pocket presence about him. The merest fracture in the pocket and the safety zone in his mind comes crumbling down. Fortunately, the offensive line has been rather excellent so far in 2013, but that benefit has not resulted in any prolific offensive output. We all know that Dalton does not move around the pocket like Drew Brees, but, like all pro quarterbacks, when he's given time, he can be effective.

The unit as a whole has to show that they can stretch the field some through the air, or opposing defenses will inch closer and closer to the line of scrimmage. A football season is not a repatitive or stagnant display, or at least shouldn't be. The good teams are always slightly shape-shifting to keep their enemies off guard, one step ahead as the saying goes. So far, the Cincinnati offense has shown an ability to move the ball on the ground effectively enough to kick field goals, but that is a step to the right or left, nothing remotely progressive. I want to see Dalton throw deep accurately. I want to see A.J. Green separate from his coverage more consistently. I want to see Tyler Eifert gash the middle of the field on seam routes. In short, I want to see something explosive no matter how short-lived.

Yes, the defense faces a young quarterback with only one start in his pro career. Yes, they are coming off of a brilliant performance against the legendary Tom Brady. And yes, they get Leon Hall and Michael Johnson back, but we just saw this movie in Week 4 against Cleveland. I feel embarrased that I was again forced to learn the lesson that no team in the league should be taken for granted, but it happened, and I'm living with it. Now I don't think that Thad Lewis is going to light Lake Eerie on fire and dazzle the world with his arm and legs, but I also don't think he will look completely inept. That being said, the primary objective for the Zim Clan this week is to contain outside runs by Lewis, C.J. Spiller and Freddie Jackson. Runs up the gut should be handled without much problem, but let these guys sniff the open air of space outside of the hash marks and chunk plays will result. The defensive ends have to remember to be patient and set the edge on lateral running plays. If they collapse down too much on fake handoffs, Lewis will find freedom moving toward the sidelines and force cornerbacks to become the team's run-stuffers.

The Bengals have yet to win on the road so far in their short season, but they have four of their next five games away from home and have to prove at some point that they can travel and succeed. While I am gun shy to call this week easy, it does appear that there may not be an easier game than this on their away schedule. Losing these types of games makes the end of the season needlessly more stressful. Good teams get through it, even if it's not pretty.

Bengals 20, Bills 13

Mojokong-the primate in the sky.

Week 5 Preview: Rushing in the Rain

If there were a shadowy, government-sponsored football team, it would be the Patriots. At its helm is of course the hooded genius, Bill Belichick, and his subject, Tom Brady. Someday Brady may end up President of the United States-laugh if  you wish, but I'm putting good odds on it. For now, though, he is merely a quarterback, and his team is not the juggernaut it once was. It lacks viable weaponry and accomplished skill players. With Vince Wilfork gone for the season, outside of Brady, there is no real star-power anymore. Nonetheless, they are undefeated, and, for the thousandth time, they have shown that they will adjust in anyway necessary to win games.

Some of that star-power improves this week if the enigmatic Rob Gronkowski is once again spotted wearing a helmet (and presumably a shirt) and playing football against the Cincinnati Bengals. While Brady has quickly developed the likes of Kenbrell Thompkins and Julian Edelman into starting-caliber players, a dose of Gronk would put the New England offense at ease when looking at the long-term picture of the season. Therefore, with Gronk's uncertainty, coupled with the fact the Patriots are able to show a wide variety of looks, this week seems especially difficult for the Cincinnati coaching staff to prepare for.

We know what Tom Brady can do. His accuracy, pocket-presence and clutch ability are paralleled only by the other living legends in the game today. What I remain impressed with the most in regards to New England is their consistent ability to simplify the game. More than any other team in the league, I say to myself "that makes sense" while watching the Patriots. While it may be an ancient cliché, it's hard to dispute that they collectively allow the game to come to them.

An example of this is the contrast of attacks they showed against Tampa Bay in Week 3 and then against Atlanta a week later. Against the Bucs, they came out as their old selves in the shotgun every play, and converting on short routes with emphasis on yards-after-catch. They quickly got the lead and ran the ball well enough to coast to an easy win.

In Week 4 in the Georgia Dome, Brady stayed under center and handed the ball off on a very regular basis. They looked patient and committed to the run until they began gashing the Falcons on play-actions, which once more allowed them to enjoy a two-score third-quarter lead.

Both of these opponents had to operate in comeback mode during most of the second half. Teams don't typically play well in comeback mode; it's predictable and desperate. The Falcons rallied because they pass the ball well. The Bucs floundered quickly because they don't.

There is no straight-forward way to beat Tom Brady. You always have to watch the slot receiver in the flats and the tight ends sneaking past coverage on play-action, and getting pressure always helps, but more than anything, the defense simply needs to minimize the damage by making open-field tackles and avoiding dumb penalties. Yet my prescription for the Brady-itis is to stop the run and make him throw it.

Crazy, I know.

Despite the all the Brady praise, the rest of this passing game is just okay. If the Bengals were forced to use the same collection of skill players, they would likely have a horrible offensive season. When watching Patriots games this year, one can sense the slightest hesitancy to attack the jugular with pass the way they used to. Leaning on the run game in power formations speaks to an identity shift in some regards. It's as if they're covering something up. That's why the Zim Clan should attack that something, by stopping the run first and foremost and making them show what's behind that curtain. Loading up the box and daring LeGarrette Blount to beat you sounds awfully risky against a sure-fire hall-of-famer like Brady, but if you don't stop the run, the Patriots won't stop using it. The Falcons got handled defensively because they dropped too many defenders back in coverage too often. This not only allowed a successful rushing day, but gave Brady long stretches of time in the pocket where he expertly dissected the dirty bird secondary. If the Bengals bring the heat on blitzes to stop the run and disrupt the pocket, Belichick and company will adjust with three-step drops and quick-hitters. That's when quality man-to-man coverage and sure tackling by the secondary must come in to play.

On offense, if you are a regular reader of mine, then you can probably guess what I recommend: that's right, run the ball. Vince Wilfork, the run-plugging megafauna that has stabilized that defense during some lean years up front is out with a bad wheel. Atlanta, partially because of the score and partially because of their style (and partially because Steven Jackson was out), pretty much abandoned the run and allowed themselves to become one-dimensional. The Bengals can't make the same mistake. Yes, they didn't run it well last week against the Browns, but they didn't do anything well on that side of the ball, and Cleveland's defense is better than you might suspect. They can run against the Patriots if they stick with it. Jay Gruden drifts away from the run too easily at times. His complex passing attack dominates his play-call selection, and, in my mind, overwhelms Andy Dalton. When Cincinnati throws it over 40 times in a game, they become a lot less likely to win that game. The front office has done a good job of building a deep and balanced team; to rely solely on the arm of its quarterback seems wasteful.

You cannot, however, run it every down. Passes will obviously come into play, When they do, I would like to see the emphasis put on using the middle of the field. I have built an ongoing observational theory that many teams, including the Bengals, rely on sideline pass patterns too much and that it's hurting their performance. New England exploits the middle of the field quite a lot with nice results. Even the Bengals do well when they try it, but last week Dalton had a hell of a time completing anything thrown outside of the hash marks.

It makes sense when you think about it. A quarterback needs a powerful arm to throw it laterally down the field because the pass takes longer to reach its target; throwing in the middle is a more direct route. The Bengals have a stockpile of talent that could easily exploit this area of the field. Their tight-end tandem is working when given the chance, but not when they are asked to run toward the sideline. Giovani Bernard is a tremendous underneath pass-catcher that should be used more often as an escape hatch. Mohamed Sanu is a big-bodied receiver that has shown an ability to go across the middle. Even A.J. Green has gained first downs on easy inside slant patterns.

After an ugly performance like the one last week in Cleveland, it's important to scale back the complexity on offense and go back to basic stuff that makes sense. You can only build on success. Perhaps this being the first game of the second quarter of the season, some more macro adjustments will be made and an emphasis on the run will become noticeable.

The forecast says it will rain tomorrow which only strengthens my argument to run the ball. Whichever team wins in this statistical column, wins the game.

The Bengals need this one. Not only for records sake, but also for a much needed jolt of confidence. They are a miracle defensive touchdown away from being 1-3, and haven't come anywhere near the level of play that we expected on a regular basis this year. The whole organization needs to rise up if they are to truly and significantly change the culture of this team. It must start now, but my gut tells me it won't.

Patriots 28, Bengals 24

Mojokong-surprised to see it this way.

Two Thoughts

A Silver Crock

The idea that Andy Dalton is given preferential treatment within the Bengals organization is almost certainly true. But it is also true for every other pro quarterback with relatively safe job security.

First of all, Michael Silver is the least substantiated football writer on the planet (besides myself, of course) and his insights to Dalton being babied are almost certainly Hard Knocks driven.

Secondly, any dumb bell can figure out that his practices are inconsistent thanks to the always-flowing stream of tweets that pour from training camp. We heard countless times that Dalton wasn't exactly sharp and we could see it with our own eyes in preseason games and in the last three regular-season contests.

It's okay to bash him for his play on Sundays, but ratcheting up some coaching controversy that no outsider can be sure of is dumb and needless. It's exactly this kind of grade-school gossip that drives the sports industry more than it should and we are to blame for that. I encourage you to pay no attention to such drivel.

Baby Saints?

After watching the Saints fillet the Dolphins in the Superdome last night, I wondered why the Bengals can't be the poor-man's version of that fancy New Orleans offense. Let it be clear that I am not saying Andy Dalton is on any level with Drew Brees, and I know that it's Brees that makes them great, but there are other decent prototypes on both rosters.

I think Giovani Bernard could be a Darren Sproles kind of guy. He looks like he catches the ball pretty well—though probably not as well as Sproles—and both are small, very quick men who are hard to bring down in the open field. Marvin Jones is like Lance Moore in that both are burners and vertical guys (yes, I am aware Moore has moved on from the Saints). Lastly, I know this one is going to be tough to swallow, but A.J. Green may turn out to be more Marques Colston than Jerry Rice.

Before you get upset at a perceived slight to Green, let's rather agree that Colston is a pretty damn talented and underrated receiver that has been getting the job done for a long time in the Big Easy. Truth is, until Green is paired with a big arm or supreme accuracy, he will not be the very best in the league, and even then he still may not be. Nonetheless, both men described above are their team's leading receiver and can be used in similar ways.

Mojokong—quick hitters.