Something Old, Something New

This week was one of immediate change. Many are disappointed by what's occurred, already jonesing for Mike Zimmer to change his mind and come back, and the next Bengals team will be coordinated by different men, but like or not, we are all moving forward with this.

And what's to cry about, honestly? We all knew Marvin was not getting fired, nor moving upstairs to GM. We knew Zimmer and Jay Gruden were serious head-coaching candidates based on numerous interviews each has had in the past. Most agreed they deserved their shot and wished them the best when they earned their chance.

The selections to replace the two were the least-surprising decisions available. Those who follow closely, or even remotely, know that Mike Brown is as loyal as a bloodhound to his people. He would rather go with someone he knows and feels he can trust, sometimes negligently so, rather than bring in outsiders, and in this case he followed suit, promoting from within to fill both positions.

Let's not pretend, however, these guys aren't qualified for their new jobs. Hue Jackson is a veteran to this game. He was a terrific play-caller in Oakland who featured a creative run-game and a dynamic fullback in Marcel Reece. Players like Jacoby Ford, Jason Campbell and Darren McFadden enjoyed their career's best stretches with Hue. He gets to sit in the captain's seat to an offense with payloads of young talent. He knows the personnel better than any other candidate and lacks the softness some of us perceived in Gruden at times.

My only concern with Jackson is the big-shot syndrome. Hue Jackson appears to consider himself a very cool guy, a beacon of proven knowledge. He has coached high-level football for decades and knows a whole universe of game elements I may never learn, but getting in the faces of players doesn't always go well and can sometimes lead to some division among the ranks. I still don't the know details, and maybe never will, but I remember there being rumblings of a fight between Chad Johnson and Hue Jackson at halftime in the 2005 Wild-Card game. Chad is a renown hothead, and if it happened, we give the adult points to Hue on that one, but perhaps other personality-types may have defused the situation before it got out of hand, who knows?

I'm not saying Hue Jackson is going to come in and fight his players or make them feel bad, but I thought the team chemistry last year was tremendous for the Bengals and we have seen the catastrophes of a sour locker room before. Marvin's group management has perhaps extended a bit further than last year with Hue more in the forefront, but this all seems like me making an issue out of nothing, so we can ignore it for now.

As for Paul Guenther, it feels like he is as deserving of his new post as Zimmer is head-caoching in Minnesota. He's been with the team since 2005 and has commiserated with a lot of successful football people during that time. This is not a case of cronyism run amok, other teams were sniffing around on him as their own coordinator too. Dues were paid in the case of Pauly G.

These men aren't schleps that Mike Brown thought he could save a buck on. They're seasoned and ready to do a great job. I think they deserve a fair shot before we start hunting around for our pitchforks and lanterns.

What else is nice about them being internally promoted is the sameness mixed with the newness.

Learning a new terminology in regards to football plays is apparently a monster academic undertaking for NFL players. When they are used to one language, their brains have a hard time picking up a new one, so neither side has to worry about that.

As for the differences, something should change after three straight playoff losses. After all, the phrase "three straight playoff losses" indicates a great deal of success mixed with consistent disappointment. Blow up the whole thing? Hardly necessary. Add a fresh, but not alien, perspective? Yes, let's try that.

Hue wants to run the ball more, and I do too. Giovani Bernard is an immediate fan favorite and his ability to do damage in the passing game is fun, but late in the season, his rushing totals became too small and many of his attempts were kind of worthless. Even passing to him proved difficult, as Andy Dalton had a hard time connecting with the tiny target. BenJarvus Green-Ellis still has a lot to offer as a compliment to the other backs in the stable, and was forgotten in the playoff game to the Chargers despite a nice showing on his eight attempts. And a third back should be mixed in to some degree this upcoming campaign as well. Perhaps they simply didn't trust Cedric Peerman to carry the rock last year, but he only saw action in blow-out minutes. A multi-back approach doesn't need to be limited to just two. McFadden will be on the market this spring and will come discounted in the scratch, dented and injured section of the free-agent store. I would welcome a third style of ground-game kung fu and extend the ways to kill defenses even further with McFadden in the mix.

As for Guenther, I don't know how he will be different from Zim. How could we know? He seems like an intense dude, and I would surmise that intense dudes like to blitz more than the relaxed guys (Leslie Frazier, for instance), but that's complete speculation. He gets the pair of injured stars back next year in Geno Atkins and Leon Hall, he gets a developing megastar in Vontaze Burfict, and he likely gets a fairly high draft pick to work on. I wouldn't go as far to say that this defense can take care of itself no matter who is calling the shots, but I do feel like this group is far more advanced than your average defense and is hardly a rebuild job.

Because the Bengals are the experiment that we constantly monitor, it will be exciting to analyze the changes these two men will bring about. Can they push the team over the top and get a playoff win? Only time will tell, but they have as good of a shot as any. Many still blame Marvin Lewis, but the program he runs is turning his underlings into head coaches and is making the playoffs every year. The problem last year was a devastating second half, one that Marvin had little options to salvage. It was a meltdown of decision making, but not his decisions. Removing him might be a positive, but is not currently warranted. The change of philosophy the two new coordinators bring is the perfect balance of change and consistency. I feel good about this.

Mojokong-snowglobed.

The Shame of it All

What gets lost in all the power and glory of football is the shame.  There is tremendous shame in football.  There is mostly football shame in Cincinnati.

I know the coaches felt the hurt more than the cold in their bones on Monday.  It wasn't supposed to go down like that this year.  It was built with better stuff than that; it was tested.  And yet there you have it.  Not only another first-round loss, an absolute ass-kicking in the second half of that game.  Their guys got pushed and rattled and beaten, all their perceivable powers neutralized in thirty minutes.  The personnel was right, the schemes were working and the arrow was up all throughout this season.  It was up, dammit!

They likely faced themselves in the mirror today wondering if they will ever have a roster like this again in Cincinnati.  The last two years were building blocks and that was okay, but this was the year.  This year the Bengals were really gonna....

Then there are the players.  Yeah, most of them are coming back and yeah they will have another year of experience and yeah they will probably be good again next September, October, November and December, but how many Januaries do they have left in them?  Perhaps because of their youth and early playoff regularity, this group may not realize the scarcity of that special winter-time occurrence.  A winning culture matters and the definition of winning increases as the culture improves.  So far, this team's culture is mired in not-good-enough.  I don't mean to say they are without quality leadership and disciplined mind frames.  They just aren't good enough.

Next are Bengals fans.  Not an attractive fan base, this gang will often get surly on the first negative play and take a while to shake it off.  They are a scorned bunch who perpetually feel like asses for being fooled again.  They live with daily self-doubt and think the rest of the league picks on them and their team.  When they meet outside of Cincinnati, they are astonished to have found the other, and feel an immediate bond in their shame.

Then there is the city itself.  The people of this city are reeling for a meaningful victory.  Cincinnati has a kind of inferiority complex already, being a one-time big city and now a "small market" place.  Any time Ohio is mentioned in the movies or on TV shows, it's always Cleveland that's represented and never Cincinnati.  People think our chili is gross.  Our pro teams don't advance in the playoffs.  We don't feel like winners.

Which is crazy when you think about it.  You and I have no effect on the games.  We hope a certain group of humans performs better than another group at a very physical sport.  We hope they are better because they represent the place we live, but in reality, their representation of us is only the name on their uniforms.  With two or three exceptions, none of these players or coaches come from Cincinnati (and even two or three seems kind of high).  Almost all of them are in the one-percentile in athletic capabilities, so they aren't representing us in that sense either, and the poorest of the bunch gets paid ten times more than your average Cincinnatian.  But we hate it when we are mocked after our specific athletic group of rich outsiders comes up short against similar groups from similar far-away places.

The uglier side of this fan shame manifests with people threatening players with black-hearted vulgarities on social-media channels and screaming for coaches to be fired, but most people just absorb it, digest it and move on pleasantly enough to their fellow humans, but not without a small twinge of defeat that never truly goes away.  Over time, this feeling hardens into indifference, and many passionate fans become casual observers out of self-defense.  This is partly why the area struggles to sell out games and is why these people are always one shrug away from not giving a shit.

I count myself among the masses who felt the shame on Monday.  I felt it Sunday afternoon as the clock wilted away like an iceberg in the Arctic Ocean. I simmered in my seat and fiddled with my hat a lot as I replayed each Dalton turnover in my head.  I vented to the room about Jay Gruden being outcoached after halftime.  I went outside and pretended I could see Mike Brown in his tower, laughing at me.


If this is Mike Brown's fault, though, he is only guilty for employing the men beneath him.  While he was the easy target of the past, MB hasn't done much to complain about recently.  Perhaps he still lacks the gumption necessary to be shrewd and occasionally fire those he counts as friends, but his football operations have been proficient and his organization has enjoyed a prolonged string of quality regular seasons.  A major decision looms around the future of the team's quarterback position, but that is another story for another day.  For now, the blame should be redirected from the owner's box.

We might as well cut to the chase and blame Andy Dalton for the third consecutive Wild-Card loss on Sunday.  He lost that game.  He did.  The others weren't their best, but he was a disaster in the second half and he matters the most.  We know what Dalton can do well.  When things are going as planned, when the offensive line is keeping him mellow and in rhythm, when the defense shows the looks he expects, things come up roses.  He makes a lot of nice throws and surprises me a couple of times a game with his abilities, but then a wrinkle surfaces, something he didn't account for, and the whole operation falls apart.

There are only about eight really good to great quarterbacks in the game.  Then there are good, average and random quarterbacks that make up the rest.  Dalton has always vacillated between good and average and he remains there today.  The playoffs have proven that it takes a high-level of professionalism at the quarterback position to advance in the contest, but this team either tried tricking themselves into thinking that they had a high-grade QB or that the rest of the team was strong enough to hide their problems.  All it took for San Diego was to flush him out of the pocket for one half to crush the season.  I think a lot of folks want to see Dalton be a game-manager, but he isn't that kind of a guy.  He's either high-flying or hard crashing.  He's either throwing four touchdowns or four picks.  He's either Good Andy or Bad Andy.

The coaching staff certainly failed to make the adjustment in the second half the way the Chargers did, and it was hard to hear San Diego players say after the game that they saw no surprises from the Bengals and knew what was coming.  This is an all-star coaching staff of respected men who have had little to no playoff success.  At what point do those two things not correlate anymore?  I like both coordinators and their schemes, I like the program Marvin Lewis runs and felt he improved on his game management skills this season.  I like Hue Jackson and his moxie, and the Hayes brothers seem to know the game, but until all these guys win something we might remember in 20 or 40 years, we will die having forgotten about them, or worse, be pained by their memories.

Yes, shame is everywhere in this football town.  It takes nine months to fully rev the engines again and allow the spring of hope to fill us once more and it will happen again, but one can't help but worry that the chances will dry up like it did in the wretched past.  We don't trust that we will continue to enjoy year after year of divisional championships and playoff berths like some cities seem to do.  Our desperation heightens with our limitation of days.  Yet remember, dear desperate soul, that these men do not represent us; we represent ourselves.  A great city, a great life, a great person is rarely defined through football, at least to the average joe.  Root for them, yes, of course, but don't be ashamed when your hope is not satisfied.  We are not losers because of the outcome of Wild-Card weekends.

We always hear that the same group of individuals is never completely replicated from one year to the next.  There will certainly be changes in 2014, but we have yet to learn how dramatic they will be.  Will all the same coaches come back next season?  Will the new draft picks include a young quarterback?  What free agents fit this team?  Only time will tell.  Until then, try not to stress about it.  Enjoy the playoffs because you enjoy watching good football.  Revel in the warmer weather sure to come in a few months.  And when Bengals time rolls around again, remember who dictates your life and your shame.  You do.



Mojokong-an ape of many interests.

Wild-Card Preview: Here For Good Reason

There is no reason to worry. These Bengals are built for this game. They have created this moment for themselves and tomorrow they will seize it.

Over the past four years, Cincinnati has stockpiled talent all over their roster and is now perhaps the deepest team in the league. A large part of that credit rests with the front office for identifying quality players, the rest goes to the coaches for consistently developing them.

All of this good stuff has landed the Bengals back in the playoffs for the the fourth time in five years, but for the first time, they were expected at the playoff party. There will still be the huge masses of doubters on Sunday who stand with their arms crossed and ask, "Well?" After all, they have never won one of these affairs with Marvin Lewis, and to many, seeing is believing.

Yet I am not interested in the beliefs others have of Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton. I have seen both men grow at their position this season and each are respected professionals among their peers. The Bengals beat quality teams on a regular basis in 2013 (something that was lacking the previous two campaigns), they have been incredible when playing at home and it's a Sunday afternoon game which means the routine for the players stays the same. Outside of superstition, there is no valid reason to think the Bengals can't win their Wild-Card game on Sunday.

Why should there not continue to be an abundance of touchdowns against San Diego? Because Dalton throws too many picks, you say?

Last week the offense felt unstoppable even with four interceptions and won convincingly. The weeks before that showed that if it's a pick-free day for Dalton, games become silly blowouts. Those are big wins either way. This offense is purring and exploding with points at PBS.

The Charger corners should be worried. The Bengals have 31 flavors of variety in their offense. They can find mismatches in their mismatches. Sometimes they are guilty of overdoing it and killing themselves with needless complexity or getting too cute, but in general, the offense outsmarts its opponents. San Diego has no one who can adequately cover A.J. Green. They can double him, but that's when the supporting cast goes for the jugular. Marvin Jones has emerged this season as a very serious NFL wide receiver. When Dalton sees Jones in single coverage, he takes his chances. Jones has tremendous concentration which allows him to make extremely difficult catches, or at least come close practically every time. Another player hitting his stride recently is Andrew Hawkins. After coming along slowly from injury, Gruden has featured him more by using his blazing quickness in space. The sheer speed of these three players puts a lot of pressure on the Charger corners, and that says nothing of their other rich abilities.

The linebackers should be even more worried. Their collection of 3-4 linebackers are typically overgrown and therefore perhaps not all that fleet of foot. If they find themselves covering in any single man situation, they are an easy target. Giovani Bernard is seeing more action in the passing game, but his small self has proven to be at times a difficult object to throw to. Nonetheless, if Bernard sees that Mante Teo is lined up across from him, seam routes to the end zone would seem in order. If it isn't the backs, the dynamic tight-end duo is giving defenses headaches with their length and speed. Jermaine Gresham was vilified for his poor play in last year's playoff game and I especially hope to see a good game from him to cleanse that lingering negativity many fans still harbor in him.

Marvin Lewis said that his team is best when it remains aggressive, so I would look to see Dalton challenge the Bolts through the air all day. He might throw a pick or two, but he is playing with a lot of confidence in his abilities and looks pretty comfortable in the only pro offense he's ever known. They collectively play like a college offense in that it seems like the scheme itself scores the points rather than the players. Sounds crazy, I know, but at times it feels like every play works with this bunch.

The Chargers can play offense too, and they have seasoned veterans in key areas, but the difference is the defense they will face. While the Zim Clan seems a bit less dominant up front getting in the quarterback's face these days, they remain a fundamentally sound group that stays disciplined, trusts each other, and focuses on their keys. This week it's imperative that they set the edge and control the flats when San Diego is passing.

Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews get a ton of cheap yards on dump off throws into the flats. They are both capable receivers and they prove to be hard to tackle on the outside-especially Woodhead-therefore the Bengals linebackers need to get out to the flats quickly and at least slow these men up for gang tackles. Take away this seemingly innocuous element to their offense, and I think you force the Chargers to punt at least three more times.

No one is worried about Vontaze Burfict doing what he has to do, and Vincent Rey has shown himself to be excellent in coverage, but Rey Maualuga knows (or should know) that defenses are coming after him. He was another goat to last year's loss, and can also redeem himself for a long time with a nice game, but it's important he finally make the big play. I know he has been much improved this year by simplifying the game and not trying to do too much, but in college he was a play-making machine, looking like a larger Troy Polamalu on a regular basis. On the pro level, though, he always seems a second or two late in making the game-changing impact.

I look for Philip Rivers to take into account of Maualuga's whereabouts on a regular basis and attack him when he can. But then I look For Rey to meet the challenge and make the big play. I think the Chargers will move the ball successfully but find it hard to reach the endzone, just like in the first game. Ryan Mathews won't enjoy a huge day because the Bengals are good tacklers and that alone pretty much takes care of Mathews. Ladarius Green is still the scariest matchup on the team, and Zimmer will have to scheme to limit his explosiveness, and Keenan Allen will make teams pay with his quickness and big-play potential but I think Rivers gets harassed out of his game just enough to keep the Chargers frustrated with settling for field goals and coming up short.

This is the game we've all been waiting for; the one to feel good about for a change. The Chargers are a decent team. They closed out the regular season nicely and should feel good about a lot of their younger players and their new head coach. The playoffs, though, are the true litmus test of teams, and the Bengals are simply more fortified for this kind of action. There is nothing more they could have done this season to strengthen their case any further. They have the right players, the right coaches and the right venue to win. Now it's simply a matter of seeing it happen.

Bengals 35, Chargers 21

Mojokong-faith in facts.

Week 17 Preview: Silly Sundays

This one is tough to call. Who will play and for how long?

If it's all the starters all the time, then the Bengals win with little difficulty. The Ravens have been shoddy offensively for three or four weeks and Cincinnati has been straight up dominant at home this season. Joe Flacco's knee hurts, Art Jones hasn't practiced all week, and John Harbaugh simply will not stop complaining about everything under the sun.

This Baltimore team hasn't risen up to its Super Bowl self of last year. Their run game is in the toilet, their passing targets are limited and Flacco seems extra turnover prone at the moment. There was a lot of chest-thumping on their behalf once they outkicked the Lions in a field goal contest, but what was lost in the hoopla surrounding a 61-yard game-winning field goal was the fact that Baltimore couldn't score a touchdown.

The Ravens want to go deep as much as possible. They have fast receivers, and Flacco can hurl it downfield with the best of them, but the vertical passing focus can be quite a hindrance when a team is forced to rely on it. It becomes easy to defend. The 2010 Bengals became junkies of the deep pass and it cost them win after win after win. The 2013 Ravens haven't quite imploded the way Carson Palmer did in his last season in Cincinnati, but they are unable to gain moderate chunks of yardage once the opposing defense takes away anything deep and they quickly fall apart. Mike Zimmer teaches his men to drop deep and allow underneath catches, then rally to the ball carrier for short gains. Against some west-coast offenses, this approach can be problematic because they are able to patiently move the ball by nickel and diming the Bengals, but Baltimore wants the quick strike and they want it now.

If it comes down to preseason football where Tyrod Taylor takes on Josh Johnson for three quarters, your guess is as good as mine as to who wins. If it matters, I think the Bengals have some of the best backups in the league, so I guess I like their chances in a Backup Bowl too, but once football gets silly in this way, predictions go out the window.

This begs the question: why would Marvin not play his starters with a first-round bye at hand? I can't answer this. Maybe he will. But think of it this way, if you play your starters and the Bills are unable to win in New England, have you sacrificed a fresher team for a remote chance at a better seeding? Marvin Lewis typically plays it safe. That's why I don't think Andy Dalton plays all 60 minutes tomorrow.

If I were the Bengals, I would hand the ball to BenJarvus Green-Ellis 40 times and throw sparingly. The Law Firm can take the pounding and it would cut down on the wear to the more dynamic playmakers on the team. If the defense can hang in there, it could be a 14-12 kind of game where the Bengals win and still not tax anybody too much outside of Benny.

Chances are though, while the starters are in there, they will go about their offense as usual. Home games this season have been point explosions with lots and lots of touchdowns. If that continues Sunday, the Ravens don't stand a chance. Honestly, no one does.

Yet the good times can't last forever. Eventually a team will rise to the challenge and make it tough on the Stripes in the Jungle. I don't think it will be this week, Baltimore simply isn't that good. Nor do I think it will be the week after. All the wildcard contenders are beatable-especially Miami. That would effectively end the home games for Cincinnati with a perfect record. The road, though, is nasty in January, and plenty of problems are likely to crop up at that point, but for now, we will enjoy what we're given and that's playoff-caliber football from our favorite team. I am proud of these Bengals.  Who dey!

Bengals 31, Ravens 20

Mojokong-sick with it.

Week 16 Preview: The Answer

Originally, this piece was to be about the lack of respect the Bengals are experiencing right now but that's an old and tired play and since I respect them still, why indulge the opposition with the fight they seek?

Instead, we look ahead to a vital game against a beatable opponent, one that could serve as a healing win and bolster the team's confidence, but one that I don't think will be an easy stroll by any stretch.

The Vikings didn't like any of their quarterbacks earlier in the season, They spun the carousel a couple of times with Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder, brought in Josh Freeman for a go at it, and when no immediate answer surfaced, they settled on Cassel in the end for better or worse. Since the position has stabilized, the offense has improved and the significant talent that exists outside of the quarterback is beginning to come to light.

This is a classic bad-team tale. The 2002 Bengals come to mind with Gus Frerrote, Akili Smith and Jon Kitna battling for a job and costing the team wins in the process. They settled on Kitna and he gave Chad Johnson wings.

It makes sense that the worst teams would be better at the end of the year. If a team is bad because of injuries to key spots, or because their roster was composed with too much youth and inexperience, then at this point, the backups and rookies know the playbook and probably have had ample reps as well. The players and coaches better understand each other. These are eliminated from the playoffs, yes, but there is money to be made and that still matters in this game.

Minnesota has quality players even without Adrian Peterson. Toby Gerhart is a bruiser with field vision, the trio of Greg Jennings, Cordarrelle Patterson, and our boy, Jerome Simpson make for at least a speedy and athletic receiving corps, and Cassel himself has been a steady hand and looked particularly good last week.

Despite all of that, the Vikings are still a bad team.

Last week, they played in their comfortable dome and ran their offense like it was practice against Philadelphia. The week before that they played in a snow storm with the fury of planet Hoth and mightily struggled for 58 minutes (the last two were nuts!). This week, it won't be freezing but wet and windy, so I expect something in between in terms of production.

Obviously, the first thing anybody ever wants to do against Minnesota is contain Adrian Peterson who is widely considered the undisputed champ of running backs of his generation. Assuming everyone agrees with this approach, then one must decide how to take on the Vikings passing game. Philadelphia applied minimal pressure and dared Cassel to throw into coverage. The Ravens were far more aggressive with their blitz schemes and had more success.

Pressure on the quarterback has subsided over the past two weeks for the Bengals, and the expectations for the front four are high even without Geno Atkins, but perhaps Mike Zimmer has blitzed less often because of the type of quarterback he's faced. Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck are players who thrive when plans go awry. Both move around well and both keep their eyes downfield. Matt Cassel is not that kind of person.

Cassel seems like a very mechanical player. When he drops back five steps, plants his back foot, takes one hop and then fires, he is a quality player, but the process must be clean as a whistle or else his game breaks down rapidly. When he scrambles he either puts his head down and hopes for the best or looks to throw the ball out of bounds. Rattling him seems very achievable with the right mixture of blitzes.

His delivery is also noticeably mechanical and is therefore slow. When he drops his shoulder to throw, there is an extra hitch or two before the ball comes out allowing the defense an extra nanosecond of reaction, which can make all the difference. I could see corners wanting to take some risks against a player like that. If Cassel is not comfortable in the pocket, the secondary can become even more chancy. Look for a pick six, maybe two.

On defense, the Vikings aren't bad. Nick Foles ran on them well last week, but Andy Dalton is not the same threat with his legs. Their front four seems rather stout and their linebackers tackle well. Their linebackers also cover well, but in a reverse way, I think this is the element that will allow the Bengals to win.

The Vikings put a lot of trust in their linebackers covering people and for good reason, but a team like the Bengals are built for mismatches like this. They have the big, strong guy in Jermaine Gresham, the big, fast guy in Tyler Eifert, the little, strong guy in Gio Bernard, and the little, fast guy in Andrew Hawkins. All are dangerous in space and all bring different weaponry to the table. Finding sensible ways to get these men the ball against man coverage is the way to win. Simply checking off to underneath targets can allow for easy first downs. Exploit the overconfidence the Vikings may have in their linebackers by using the odd cast of complimentary players around A.J. Green and the Bengals offense should enjoy another nice day at home.

Everyone is a little tense right now about the very near future, but for a moment, let's zoom back a frame and look at a bigger picture. Here is a team with a 9-5 record, winners of three of their last four and scorers of over 40 points three home games in a row. Here is a team that lost last week to a divisional rival on the road thanks to two first-quarter punting snafus. Here is a team with signature wins over New England, Indianapolis, and Green Bay. Yet, despite all of their success, the world waits for the Bengals to fail and pounce on them every time they do.

This team is still a quality one made up of solid professionals; that didn't change from Sunday night to Monday morning. They have risen up from a bad team, to an average team, to a good one. The organization has built well for the last four years and it's paying off. What more must they do?

I know that answer and it begins on Sunday.

Bengals 30, Vikings, 24

Mojokong-find me in the cheap seats chanting "dome team!".

Week 15 Preview: The Stats Say Yes, the Gut Says No.

The Steelers may be in a bit of trouble. If they aren't careful in the next upcoming season or two, they could find themselves in a dark chapter of their storied history.

I realize that struck a nerve with the majority of the football universe. Here I am, a Bengals fan, warning Pittsburghabout their team. Many will think a hardy yet dismissive chortle is in order after such a sentiment. Yet, when one removes their superiority sunglasses, studded with six little jewel-encrusted trophy replicas on the sides, they might see a roster in transition and a staff in question. Or they might not.

First and foremost, the Pittsburgh Steelers still represent excellence. They have built their organization on a power foundation and have done their best to stick to it while adjusting to the current game.  Historically speaking, their selections of personnel, both players and coaches, have been phenomenal.

Right now, however, there are a lot of pieces in flux.

There are whispers about Mike Tomlin coaching the Texas Longhorns. I'm sure this is just gossip, but there is a lotof money in Texas; never underestimate what a rich Texan can buy. And at what point do the tables turn for Tomlin within his own fan base? If he carries on missing the playoffs and ending third or worse in his division, how soon is he accused of riding the coattails of winning a championship with someone else's team? When will he become Tubby Smith?

Dick LeBeau is truly the Yoda of the NFL, but even the little green guy had to hang it up eventually and so will Dick. It would be hard to count on the man for much longer. It's impossible to say he isn't among the greatest defensive minds of all time, probably the best, but he doesn't have the rottweilers he used to and his old gang ages right along with him. There are many rocking chairs awaiting this defense and it's showing up.

On offense, there is talent missing.  David Decastro and Mike Pouncey were good draft picks but both have missed significant stretches of time with injuries. Marcus Gilbert and Mike Adams now seem drafted too high. Le'Veon Bell shows promise, and Antonio Brown has proven to be a gem, but there simply aren't many play-makers on this side of the ball. In the last three drafts, the Steelers have produced eight touchdowns from players they selected; the Bengals have 48 in that same span.

Whether or not Kevin Colbert fairly gets the blame or not is known to us schmoes outside of the building, but in the everyday world, it's the general managers who get the chop when multiple drafts go by without yielding big-time talent. Of course, that isn't the case in Cincinnati where the owner Mike Brown is the de facto general manager and should have fired himself every year in the 90's, but his organizational direction has dramatically improved in the recent past.

And that isn't even mentioning the increasingly murky waters of Ben Roethlisberger's future with the team. Sure, Ben says the right things to the media about his relationship with offensive coordinator, Todd Haley, but it seems clear that it's strained at best. Todd Haley yells at people, openly and a lot. He might be one of those tough love guys, but it may be hard to work for a person like that for Ben and for others. Of course if it came down to “him or me", the Rooneys would ship out Haley with that morning's recycling over disposing of Big Ben, but I expect one of these men to be gone in January either way.

Roethlisberger is expensive; hall-of-fame quarterbacks usually are. Today's economic model indicates that the best teams pay less for their young quarterbacks, but on the other hand, good quarterback play is still the most vital ingredient for success in the NFL. He has two more years on his current contract which will pay him over $17 million each season and his next signing day will likely exceed the $20 million a year mark. He has said he would rather retire than be traded, but we have seen crazier things happen before.

So while it may be an overstatement to say that the sky is falling in Pittsburgh, it is certainly a dip in their self-made standard and more than ever the torch feels passed.

On to the game.

The Bengals now fancy themselves a running team. The return of Andrew Whitworth to left guard has allowed Anthony Collins to finally get his shot at regularly starting at tackle, and together they maul. The double-barrel action of the old-reliable BenJarvus Green-Ellis complimented by the jitterbug Giovani Bernard, has created a facet the Bengals offense haven't enjoyed since the Sam Wyche days. The last two weeks, the duo has met expectations as they salt away second half leads and let the line bloody some noses on power runs up the gut. Last week against Indianapolis, Whitworth and Collins showed their athleticism as they consistently made downfield blocks on pitch plays to Bernard. The line also hasn't allowed a sack in three weeks. It's the best line play we've seen since 2005.

The Steelers must commit to stopping the run. Andy Dalton is not a great deep passer. Loading up the box against the Bengals and forcing them to win on long throws is a smart strategy. If Pittsburgh allows sustained drives created by rushing first downs, they will wear out and lose easily in the last quarter. Playing physical at the line of scrimmage against the Bengals receivers will force Dalton to improvise if they are adequately jammed, and Big Red is not a great improvisor. If they give A.J. Green and company cushion on the outside, the Bengals can win on underneath throws and check offs for first downs.

The Steelers aren't going to run well against Mike Zimmer's cew. Their best chance for success against this defense is to beat them over the top. The Bengals corners are not terribly fast, but the Steelers receivers are true burners. The way Zimmer counters this quandary is by dropping his coverage deep, allowing short throws and coming up to quickly make the tackle. It's his style. Last week, the defensive backs missed tackles that twice allowed touchdowns. Much was made about it and Zimmer himself said he will not tolerate missed tackles.

If Ben wants to throw for five to seven yards on first or second down, this defense will let him all day. He can drive his team to the Bengals' 40 yard line on a regular basis. Getting into the end zone though proves problematic when facing Cincinnati.

At this point, everyone knows how to defend Roethlisberger: Don't overpursue him in the pocket. Keep him in the pocket. When you get your hands on him, bring him down, and don't ever stop covering your receiver until you hear the whistle blow. The blue-prints are public information, it's actually doing it that's the problem.

Ben is a big bad ass who takes a thousand hits a season and laughs as he ices his joints every week. He's a throwback and a backyard legend. What he wants to do more than anything else, is run around and make a play out of nothing. He would rather invent football than go by the script. The Bengals know this and they have the players to make his day difficult, but there is no magic analysis to glean from. Stop him from making improvised plays and you win; it's that simple.

Therefore, all in all, I don't have a great feeling about this game for the Bengals. They have a much better roster, are playing well at the moment, need this game for prime playoff positioning, but don't play well in the division on the road. Andy Dalton was so good last week that I feel some balancing out is in order for Sunday night. It will be loud and cold and the two following games are in Cincinnati. If they were to let down their guard in the season's last quarter, it would be this game. Because the Bengals are so deep and talented this year, it's almost unfair to group them into historical trends of the dismal past, but this simply feels like a loss.

Steelers 24, Bengals 20

Mojokong—irregardless of what you've read.

Week 14 Preview: Full of Wonder

The last quarter is here. All in all, things have gone well for the Bengals. They sit atop their division and are now battling for a nice seed (aren't we all?). They enjoy a final stretch where they will play three of their last four games at home. Every player on the active roster practiced this week. Games are selling out. Football is fun in Cincinnati.

The Colts are so similar, and yet so different from that. They too have a comfortable lead in their division, are thinking of playoff position and get two easy remaining home games on the schedule. Yet the climate around the Indianapolis football team feels more worried than fun.

This team is in a funk. Their offensive identity is questionable. Andrew Luck scrambling is their best play at the moment. It seems they have not evolved past the Reggie Wayne injury and their power-run efforts have been stymied by Trent Richardson's inability to acclimate to his new scheme quickly enough. Last week, the Colts beat the Titans on the strength of Ryan Fitzpatrick making poor decisions and turning the ball over four times; it felt more like a Tennessee loss than an Indianapolis win. The week before that they were hammered by the Cardinals in the desert. Momentum has waned some on the Cots' season here in December which can be the death knell for Super Bowl hopefuls. If Indianapolis gets handled in this one against the Bengals, it might take great effort to rise from the proverbial mat.

All that being said, no 8-4 team is made up of bums. Andrew Luck consists of high-grade material. His instinct for the game is tremendous, he's more athletic than he looks, and his arm is just fine, thank you. This guy carries his team the way great ones do and shows a lot of passion and confidence in the huddle. The problem seems to be the lack of play-makers around him. After the Wayne injury, Coby Fleener now appears the most dangerous Colts receiver.

Another problem seems to be the offensive line, which has been porous the last two weeks. Luck has good pocket-presence but often hasn't had time to run. Poor pass-protection mixed with receivers not getting open against the Cincinnati front four-in the snow-makes for a scary day for Mr. Luck.

The Bengals defense is fierce even with missing stars. They allow short throws all day, allow mini drives to their own 40, and then tighten up like a straightjacket forcing punts and an occasional field goal. They delight their fans and frustrate the crap out of the opposition. They are the Zim Clan and we love them dearly. The Colts will need a few long plays to truly make a difference against them, and that ain't easy.

On the Cincinnati side, their offense is the opposite of Indianapolis. They have a tremendous assortment of weapons in their stockpile, but their quarterback is not of Andrew Luck ilk. The backups on this offense are better than many starters in the league. Talent drips from Jay Gruden's roster.

The quarterback issue has been worn to bits by fans and observers and is always summed up by saying that Andy Dalton is "okay". Now, though, the thinking is that perhaps Dalton's arm will become less important down the wintery stretch to the playoffs. Last week in sunny San Diego, the Bengals pounded their way to a tough-guy win and performed the victory formation on the Chargers three yard line. The offensive line has been shuffled in a manner that I believe will show improved results from their previous line up. Andrew Whitworth was a terrific guard early in his pro career. Anthony Collins is an exceptional backup tackle. Kevin Zeitler is battling some injuries at the moment but was out last week too and the line carried on nicely without him.

Perhaps now with the line adjustments, the Bengals may turn to power running more often, but I also think that may have been the idea since training camp irregardless of injury. Remember last season when the Bengals enjoyed their best stretch of games in November by pounding the rock, allowing BenJarvus Green-Ellis to display something like explosiveness, especially at home. Now with Benny complimented by the electric Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati can both wear out defenses and gash them in the process.

The Colts are a decent team to try a new identity on. Their man-to-man defense allows for big runs if the runner can reach their second tier. They also allow a lot of underneath stuff on the pass. Last week, Fitzpatrick chose the deeper crossing route instead of the check offs and short out routes that looked to be there all day. I know it's a term many football fans hate to hear, but if Dalton simply manages the game and minimizes the risks, I think the Bengals can nickle-and-dime the Colts to a win. The last team to play a lot of man coverage against Cincinnati were the Jets and they were roasted for 49 points. Look for the Bengals to throw short but run long for big yards after the catch thanks to broken tackles and superior matchups.

If the Bengals earn a victory, they will position themselves closer to a first-round bye and apply that pressure on New England. If the new line rolls over the Colts and the running game keeps the offense in a comfort zone, the team will grow even stronger for the long haul. This last quarter is vital for momentum purposes heading into January. Marvin Lewis cannot have his team trickle into the playoffs the way it has the last two years. This should be a great win.

Bengals 20, Colts 10

Mojokong-standing in the end zones for this one.