Week 17 Preview: Strangeness Abounds

The game of football is largely shapeless. The prolate spheroid that is the shape of the actual ball is but one of the many oddities of the sport. Throw in a league of 32 teams with 53 men on each roster and the strangeness is virtually limitless.

Over the years, we as an interested populace have found some comfortable parameters of expectation to work within. Now we can somewhat accurately predict the outcomes of games and seasons.

This game, though, seems to have no handle to grasp. It's the most slippery Bengals game I can remember. How do you call a game like this?

It's strange that the Bengals schedule is encased with Ravens bookends. That Monday Night game was so long ago it seems surreal and nightmarish. Perhaps is was the lateness of the hour or the looseness of the rye, but the whole event is blurry. I remember a deflating ass-kicking followed by waves of panic, but not much detail in general.

The good news is that I don't have to remember it. Things turned around for the Stripes and they're a different team than the one that crapped the bed in the opener. They didn't have Pat Sims then.

The Pat Sims effect is real. He isn't their best player—he's a damn fine run-stuffer—but once he rejoined the ranks, the defense snapped into place and the Zim Clan was once more. Now their back to the bare-knuckle brawling bunch we grew to love last year, led by the most fearsome front four in football. Baltimore faces a much stiffer opponent this time around and may need to think of the health of their quarterback during various stages of the game on Sunday. If Joe Flacco is getting roughed up, he may have an abbreviated outing.

The hard part is knowing the mind-state of these teams. The Bengals have won six out of seven but haven't exactly been blowing the barn doors off lately. The Ravens are pulling out of a nosedive and regained a dose of much-needed confidence with a nice win against the Giants last week. Both teams are going to the playoffs, yet neither want to lose momentum and back into the tournament. Players want to win but they don't want to get hurt. Coaches want to show as little strategy as possible to the following Wild-Card week opponent, yet still look respectable in their duties. It doesn't get weirder.

Marvin Lewis talked earlier in the week about how his young players need the reps more than the rest. A reporter reminded him of how he rested his starters the last two times his team had clinched a postseason birth, and Marv fired back, “Yeah, and how did that go?” This team is too young to know it's place in the league. It doesn't know that it should panic against the good teams. Doesn't know it's not supposed to make the playoffs. Marvin just tells them to do it and they do it.

The Bengals will play hard and probably win. I don't know about Baltimore. They're settling into a new playcaller, have a lot of guys hurt, and seem off kilter. If Cincinnati can contain Ray Rice, they should win. I expect sackos on Flacco and a couple of turnovers. I think BenJarvus Green-Ellis has a good enough game to give everybody confidence in him again, and I think Dalton doesn't have to do too much in the finale.

It would be fitting if the Bengals should have to play Baltimore again the following week to make things even weirder. Who knows where this strange rabbit hole will take us next? In football no one ever knows. Ever.

Bengals 22, Ravens 15

Mojokong—what's your surface area?

Not Quite Fantasy

A message was sent on Sunday, but what was it?

It had been a while since the Bengals beat the Steelers in a meaningful game—or at all, really—but not only did the Bengals win the big showdown that secured them another playoff birth, it felt like they had finally caught up to their long-time bullies. That's a good feeling for a Bengals fan, but the win lacked something truly satisfying.

That Steelers team that walked off the field—helmets lowered in shameful defeat—did not resemble the no-nonsense teams of the organization's proud past. That was a very mediocre group we witnessed four days ago, and the arrow on their future is pointing straight down and flashing red. Sunday felt like beating up an old man. Their defense is still top-ranking and they make it tough to move the ball as witnessed by the putrid offensive output generated by the Bengals, but even that side of the ball is fraying at the seams thanks to mileage and old age. There is a wide gap between veteran and young players in the Steelers locker room. For the first time in decades, they are visibly transitioning and unlike the successful patchwork of the past, this new chapter will be more of an abrupt change than what we're used to.

The Bengals, meanwhile, are building steam and are a team on the rise, evidenced by their second straight Wild-Card invitation, but their conquering in Pittsburgh was far from pronounced and hardly marked much of an arrival. I don't mean to downplay the accomplishment of the team and its coaching staff—the season they have put together has truly surpassed most expectations—but I always dreamed that the Bengals would gain divisional supremacy with an epic vanquishing of the mighty Steelers at the top of their game. A clear indicator to the football universe that a new champion had come to take its rightful throne atop the AFC North. Instead, Cincinnati squeaked out a missed field goal contest and shot a limping old dog out behind the tool shed.

All this being said, the Steelers will hardly go quietly into that gentle night. Their ownership, front office and coaching staff are too capable and too qualified to sink to the pits of despair like Cincinnati did in the 1990's and like the Cleveland Browns are still stuck in today. They will rebuild quickly and fill the gaps, but they do face an oldish roster, salary cap issues, and a spoiled yet disgruntled fan base. The time is ripe for the Bengals to rise up and be somebody when it comes to the annual playoff picture, and so far the youngsters are getting comfortable becoming regulars.

I know how pretentious it sounds to complain about the lack of style in which the Bengals achieved a playoff spot, but I had really braced myself for either a glorious victory or a heart-wrenching loss. Instead, I kind of shrugged and nodded. Perhaps when they win the division next year by knocking off another team firmly within their twilight years, the Ravens, I will get that signature win I crave so much. I just want an indelible image I can replay to the world over and over again that says “what you see before you is a good Bengals team winning a game that really matters, so suck it.” Until then, I will be happy for their successes, but still not quite satisfied.

Mojokong—whether a landform is called a mountain may depend on local usage.

Week 16 Preview: Shrink To FIt

Seeing is believing. Nothing sums up the game this weekend more than that. We can roll out the stats and look microscopically at footwork and play design, but how do you really feel about the game? It's all football psychology going into this one.

Andy Dalton feels a little shaky at the moment. His comfort in the pocket has become a fragile issue for him this season and last week's debacle can only add to his panic and maybe even turn his hair more orange. His best receiver, the all-everything godsend, A.J. Green, has slowed down. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is suddenly our best offensive player in large part to the improved run blocking. All of this spells out pass-protection. It's the most vital element to their success as a team. When Dalton has time, like any decent passer, he's fine. Get him comfortable and in rhythm and the Bengals can compete with anyone.

This week, though, is not just anyone.

There is little need to further espouse upon the cunning brilliance of Dick LeBeau and his defensive-strategic mastery within these pages of football lore. We, who know anything about anything, have lauded this sage wizard with the utmost of praise and he remains omitted from the seething hatred Bengal fans direct toward Pittsburgh and its football team. Most of that has to do with his strong Bengal ties as the defensive coordinator here in the good ol' days and later as the head coach in the darkest of days. He is perhaps the greatest defensive mind in the history of the league and has a mustard-yellow blazer in his closet for a reason. You simply cannot dislike Dick LeBeau.

He will certainly release the hounds against Dalton and test Andre Smith on the edge. Last week, Brandon Graham went through Goo like he was Slimer from Ghostbusters and I imagine Lamar Woodley is dreaming of doing the same. Keeping backs in to chip and help out on edge rushers might be imperative until Smith can prove he can hold up one-on-one. It only takes one bad read in protection to change the game and, at this point, the season.

As porous as the offensive line has been the past two games, their run blocking has really grown up right before our eyes over the course of the season. Green-Ellis has redeemed himself to some degree from his awful showings earlier in the year, but most times, any back could run through the giant running lanes this line has provided of late. Old men in rocking-chairs will tell you that good defense and a running game is what matters most in cold-weather games late in the year, and while I'm not sure that's entirely true, I do think it keeps games close.

At this point we all know the three goals Marvin Lewis wants to see accomplished in every game: win the turnover battle, win on third down, and limit explosive plays. His whole philosophy on the game seems founded upon these three factors and he has assembled his team accordingly. With the hopeful return of Cedric Peerman to the lineup, and knowing Marv like we do, I would expect them to lean on the running game for as long as they can afford to. Marvin wants to see caution above all else. It has prevented his better teams from being dominant but has also allowed some bad teams to finish with respectable records. Jay Gruden has helped shake things up as far as predictability and playing it safe goes, but in such a huge game, I think it's Marvin's instinct to limit the risks and play not-to-lose.

That isn't what Pittsburgh will do. Ben Roethlisberger is pure sandlot. He's bigger than the other kids so you can't tackle him, he scrambles around like he's evading cars on the interstate and he has proven that he can stand in the pocket and win games that way too. He does invite sacks with his willy-nilly style of play and the best a defense can hope for is to get him on the ground when they touch him. Defensive backs have the biggest challenge of the day as they will be asked to cover three very speedy receivers for longer than usual as Ben makes the majority of his big plays on the run and out of the pocket. I expect the Steelers to try a lot of quick outs, slants and shallow crosses in order to get the ball in the hands of their kick-return like receivers. Safety play becomes especially important against such speed.

Despite winning five of their last six games, it feels like the Bengals are experiencing some problems, but it's become obvious that nearly all of those problems stem from poor pass protection. The Steelers appear to be dealing with a much more systemic flaw. This is the second time this season the Bengals face a Pittsburgh team in the throes of a losing streak. One can sense a disconnect in the offense that hinders an otherwise very talented group. Injuries to the offensive line are partly to blame, but the vision that Big Ben and Todd Haley shared for the season hasn't at all shaped up to form. It seems there is a lot of frustration around the Steelers at the moment and that things are tense. Sometimes that can be motivating, but in sports it seems the looser and more easy-going team stands the better chance. Cincinnati is the underdog coming into this one, but I think the Steelers are the more dysfunctional team. I think it could be an ugly game that Pittsburgh gives away. Even though it would solidify a playoff birth for the second straight season, it still wouldn't be enough to convince most people that the Bengals are any good. And they might be right, but neither are the Steelers, and, for at least a week, that would be good enough for us.

Bengals 17, Steelers 13

Mojokong—not the average dragon to slay.

Week 15 Preview: Philly Phun

The Bengals want to write this game off and get on to Pittsburgh right away, but they know they can't. It seems like such an easy win on the surface.

This is an Eagles team made up of backups led by a coach who epitomizes the expression “lame duck” (lame walrus?), and have nothing at stake any longer in regards to a postseason birth. It's surrounded by an angry fan base who have soured on Andy Reid and there seem to be more Eagles on their way out the door than in. Nothing is certain that wears green and stalks the sideline in Philadelphia these days.

Yet despite all that negativity and uncertainty, the backup-team trotted out by Andy Reid and his mates aren't all that bad. Close observers of Nick Foles can see his progression take leaps and bounds each week. The guy has a strong arm, throws surprisingly well when rolling left, and is establishing a report with his receivers. He still doesn't sense pressure well enough, still telegraphs his passes with his eyes too much and still has a long way to go, but the kid's got talent. Philly has slowly expanded the playbook with Foles and while the wrinkles in the offense remain fairly basic, one can see the complexity growing as he becomes more comfortable within the offense.

Nonetheless, the current Bengals defense should devour a rookie quarterback with only four starts under his belt.

Tony Romo played like a veteran and let the game come to him last week. The Bengals couldn't close it out efficiently and allowed the savvy old swashbuckler to checkmate them as time ticked down. Nick Foles, unlike Tony Romo, hasn't seen a front four like he will on Thursday night though. The Zim Clan is back to its true identity, but now appears to rush the passer even better than before. Michael Johnson is doubtful yet that doesn't discourage my enthusiasm toward the Bengals pass rush in this matchup. Mix in the fact that the Eagle offensive line is patch-worked thanks to injury, and you have yourself a regular old sack attack. Of course, I think that every week, but lately it's been mostly true.

Reid and company would like to further showcase the explosive newbie running back, Bryce Brown, to take some of the pressure from Foles. Brown is an exciting young man. He runs hard, has really nice open-field speed and scores touchdowns. However, he does have a knack for fumbling. Coaches can put up with a lot, but they can't put up with fumbling—at least not for long. Brown holds the ball away from his body, looking more like a discuss carrier than a football carrier. Like Jon Gruden said during a recent Monday Night Football game, if he continues to hold the ball like that, he will continue to fumble. Even if he doesn't, Tampa Bay showed last week that if a defense “sets the edge” and takes the corner away, he becomes rather powerless. Running off-tackle is what he does well. Limit that and he becomes just another guy.

As for the Philly defense, they too are hurt and depleted. They haven't been a real force since the Jim Johnson days, and they are currently a shell of that proud time. They are not without some quality young talent to build upon with likes of Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham and even DeMico Ryans, and of course us Cincinnati folk love Trent Cole, but you won't see many other notable names in this game on the Eagle defense. The safeties look especially bad—particularly without Kurt Coleman. The vastly overpaid Nnamdi Asumuagah still resides somewhere on the field, but he rarely makes plays anymore and he is nowhere near the shutdown corner he used to be. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is also no longer very good and either one of these guys should be roasted by A.J. Green on a regular basis. The Eagles secondary gives up chunk yards on blown coverages—mostly down the middle of the field—at least once a game. As long as there aren't any major pass-protection breakdowns, I don't see why the passing attack shouldn't have a great game.

There aren't many reasons why the Eagles should win this game but that isn't to say they can't. The young guys on their bench don't care about the misery Eagles fans feel in regards to all the injuries. They want to demonstrate to the next coach of the Philadelphia Eagles that they can play and should be one of the few pieces worth keeping when the rebuilding starts. They want to get paid too.

The Bengals have to take it very seriously. They need to come out as professionals and handle a lesser team on national television the way good teams do. They need to prove that they belong.

Bengals 35, Eagles 20

Mojokong—trepidation.

Week 14 Preview: All Blitz, No Glamor

Jerry Jones and Mike Brown represent opposite ends in the football-owner spectrum. Jones is all glamor, thrusting himself in front of the cameras and throwing vaults of money at every new problem. Brown is all miser, preferring to own a mom-and-pop operation and staying out of the limelight. Their organizations reflect their personality and also the way each build their team.

The Cowboys are sparkly with all of their expensive skill positions. Their offense was made to zing with all that speed and with Tony Romo behind the wheel, but the talent of the line was misread and hasn't lived up to its price tag. Now they find themselves winning again and keeping the season meaningful despite really not playing that well.

They face a Bengals team on a four game high, beating the crap out of teams and even overcoming the California Curse last week in San Diego. It certainly is nowhere near a perfect team, but it is one that is solidly built for the future, and even the present. Brown scrimps where he can and always will. He will not be remembered as a friend to the community. His general management skills will always be vilified, fairly or not. Yet this team is a highly talented group of really young guys and he should get some credit for putting it together. Throw in an additional second-rounder next year, an astounding amount of cap space and a collective bargaining agreement that forces him to use it up and you have yourself exciting things to come, my friend.

The Bengals have minimal excitement in their skill positions. Of course there is the crown jewel of the entire team, A.J. Green, and Jermaine Gresham has finally elevated his game this year, but outside of that, no one cares about the rest of the names on that list. We Bengal fans know the other guys and what they can do, but for the most part, they are an unknown commodity.

Especially Marvin Jones. What does he bring to the table? We know he's fast and that he's a deep threat, but that is one small dimension in being a receiver. Last week he dropped a ball on a crossing route that was intercepted and really never did much in his first real chance to make a difference in the game. Losing Mohamed Sanu hurts more than we would like to admit. The reason the offense became so effective after the bye week was both the consistency of Trevor Robinson at center and the emergence of Sanu in a variety of ways. With Sanu out, Jones has to make an impact. Armon Binns flamed out really early in the season. Brandon Tate hasn't looked like much of a wide receiver. They both missed their chance to become starters. Jones is the last unknown experiment and the pressure is on him to perform well this Sunday.

As for the aforementioned center position, there is a rather vital decision to be made there for Marvin Lewis. Robinson has brought stability to the line, and the results—especially in the run game—speak for themselves. Now Kyle Cook is healthy again, has practiced all week, and probably wants his job back. A lot is made of left tackle, but center is such an underrated position for the offensive line. Robinson didn't just keep things afloat during his time as starter, he made the team better. Jeff Faine showed what happens with poor play at the position. Kyle Cook is way, way better than Faine and is without a doubt starting material in this league, but why mess with success?

The Bengals take on a Cowboys defense riddled with injury. Beginning the year, they had maybe the fastest linebackers in the league. Now they play without Sean Lee or Bruce Carter and things have slowed down a bit as a result. They are also without Jay Ratliff or Orlando Scandrick this week and only have a few difference-makers left.

The main difference maker is DeMarcus Ware—nicknamed Shark Week for his prolonged intensity and violence (D.O.)—and he will somehow find Andy Dalton know matter how much the Bengals emphasize stopping him. The attention he draws usually leads to more space for Anthony Spencer and a player that has caught my attention of late, Jason Hatcher. These guys are going to get a sack or two, Cincinnati just has to minimize the damage.

The Bengals can throw on these guys, though. The Dallas safety play is vulnerable. The corners are good, but the youngster Morris Claiborne is prone to drawing flags. Gresham and Hawkins can beat the intermediate defenders and should be important on third and mediums. Green really isn't all that guardable and defenses will continue to give help to whomever has that unfortunate task of going up against him. As long as Dalton isn't being devoured by Shark Week and his shiver (a group of sharks), he should be able to move the ball in the air well enough to win.

Thing is, the Bengals offense may be immaterial. This Mike Zimmer defense is back to its bare knuckle brawling days, now leading the league in sacks. Geno Atkins is the best pass-rushing tackle in the league, Carlos Dunlap is a growing force of quarterback evil and when healthy is a top-ten NFL pass-rusher, Michael Johnson is playing for a new giant contract and even Wallace Gilberry has become an effective contributor. These guys quietly get it done and lately they have been the difference from a mediocre team to a playoff-caliber one. The underwhelming Cowboys protection should fold like a wet napkin against this fearsome foursome. While Romo is shifty and slippery in the pocket, unlike Ben Roethlisberger, he goes down when you touch him. The Boys offense want to go vertical and use their speed and explosion, so it's important for Zimmer's gang to disrupt the timing and not allow Dez Bryant and Miles Austin to go deep. Jason Whiten is going to get his catches and the Bengals will just have to live with that, but they cannot allow the long pass over their heads. Take that away, mixed with heavy doses of pressure, and Romo will have to dink and dunk his way downfield and settle for three instead of seven.

The scariest matchup of the day for Zimmer is stopping DeMarco Murray. This guy is strong, fast and runs hard. He can tear off large chunks of yardage regularly when he's in there. Staying healthy has proven difficult for the young man, inhibiting his production and ultimately his value, but he is plenty scary once suited up. Cincinnati has been terrific against the run of late. The are disciplined about staying in their run gaps and the secondary has tackled well of late. Rey Maualuga was thrashed earlier this year for his sloppy technique and a multitude of mistakes, but his lost weight has seemingly revived him into becoming a capable middle linebacker again and he deserves some love. Also coming back to life has been Manny Lawson. While Rey took a lot of the heat, Lawson practically disappeared from my television while watching the games in the first half of the season. Now he's getting after the quarterback again and he adds yet another element to the pass rush. Murray is going to run like a wild horse this weekend and the linebackers must continue their workmanlike approach to contain him.

Ultimately, the Bengals pass rush makes the difference in this game. Cowboys right tackle, Doug Free, seems extra weak in protection and I have a feeling he will be mauled by Dunlap all day. This forced chaos by the defensive line will be enough to get some turnovers and win the game.

Bengals 23, Cowboys 13

Mojokong—ignoring the pressures of a win streak.