Seeing is
believing. Nothing sums up the game this weekend more than that. We
can roll out the stats and look microscopically at footwork and play
design, but how do you really feel
about the game? It's all football psychology going into this one.
Andy
Dalton feels a little shaky at the moment. His comfort in the pocket
has become a fragile issue for him this season and last week's
debacle can only add to his panic and maybe even turn his hair more
orange. His best receiver, the all-everything godsend, A.J. Green,
has slowed down. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is suddenly our best
offensive player in large part to the improved run blocking. All of
this spells out pass-protection. It's the most vital element to
their success as a team. When Dalton has time, like any decent
passer, he's fine. Get him comfortable and in rhythm and the Bengals
can compete with anyone.
This
week, though, is not just anyone.
There
is little need to further espouse upon the cunning brilliance of Dick
LeBeau and his defensive-strategic mastery within these pages of
football lore. We, who know anything about anything, have lauded
this sage wizard with the utmost of praise and he remains omitted
from the seething hatred Bengal fans direct toward Pittsburgh and its
football team. Most of that has to do with his strong Bengal ties as
the defensive coordinator here in the good ol' days and later as the
head coach in the darkest of days. He is perhaps the greatest
defensive mind in the history of the league and has a mustard-yellow
blazer in his closet for a reason. You simply cannot dislike Dick
LeBeau.
He
will certainly release the hounds against Dalton and test Andre Smith
on the edge. Last week, Brandon Graham went through Goo like he was
Slimer from Ghostbusters and I imagine Lamar Woodley is dreaming of
doing the same. Keeping backs in to chip and help out on edge
rushers might be imperative until Smith can prove he can hold up
one-on-one. It only takes one bad read in protection to change the
game and, at this point, the season.
As
porous as the offensive line has been the past two games, their run
blocking has really grown up right before our eyes over the course of
the season. Green-Ellis has redeemed himself to some degree from his
awful showings earlier in the year, but most times, any back could
run through the giant running lanes this line has provided of late.
Old men in rocking-chairs will tell you that good defense and a
running game is what matters most in cold-weather games late in the
year, and while I'm not sure that's entirely true, I do think it
keeps games close.
At
this point we all know the three goals Marvin Lewis wants to see
accomplished in every game: win the turnover battle, win on third
down, and limit explosive plays. His whole philosophy on the game
seems founded upon these three factors and he has assembled his team
accordingly. With the hopeful return of Cedric Peerman to the
lineup, and knowing Marv like we do, I would expect them to lean on
the running game for as long as they can afford to. Marvin wants to
see caution above all else. It has prevented his better teams from
being dominant but has also allowed some bad teams to finish with
respectable records. Jay Gruden has helped shake things up as far as
predictability and playing it safe goes, but in such a huge game, I
think it's Marvin's instinct to limit the risks and play not-to-lose.
That
isn't what Pittsburgh will do. Ben Roethlisberger is pure sandlot.
He's bigger than the other kids so you can't tackle him, he scrambles
around like he's evading cars on the interstate and he has proven
that he can stand in the pocket and win games that way too. He does
invite sacks with his willy-nilly style of play and the best a
defense can hope for is to get him on the ground when they touch him.
Defensive backs have the biggest challenge of the day as they will
be asked to cover three very speedy receivers for longer than usual
as Ben makes the majority of his big plays on the run and out of the
pocket. I expect the Steelers to try a lot of quick outs, slants and
shallow crosses in order to get the ball in the hands of their
kick-return like receivers. Safety play becomes especially important
against such speed.
Despite
winning five of their last six games, it feels like the Bengals are
experiencing some problems, but it's become obvious that nearly all
of those problems stem from poor pass protection. The Steelers
appear to be dealing with a much more systemic flaw. This is the
second time this season the Bengals face a Pittsburgh team in the
throes of a losing streak. One can sense a disconnect in the offense
that hinders an otherwise very talented group. Injuries to the
offensive line are partly to blame, but the vision that Big Ben and
Todd Haley shared for the season hasn't at all shaped up to form. It
seems there is a lot of frustration around the Steelers at the moment
and that things are tense. Sometimes that can be motivating, but in
sports it seems the looser and more easy-going team stands the better
chance. Cincinnati is the underdog coming into this one, but I think
the Steelers are the more dysfunctional team. I think it could be an
ugly game that Pittsburgh gives away. Even though it would solidify
a playoff birth for the second straight season, it still wouldn't be
enough to convince most people that the Bengals are any good. And
they might be right, but neither are the Steelers, and, for at least
a week, that would be good enough for us.
Bengals
17, Steelers 13
Mojokong—not
the average dragon to slay.
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